ENSO and PDO-related climate variability impacts on Midwestern United States crop yields

Henson, Chasity B.; Market, Patrick S.; Lupo, Anthony R.; Guinan, Patrick E.

doi:10.1007/s00484-016-1263-3

Cited by 29 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Recently, seasonal range forecasting up to two seasons ahead has been performed successfully for the Missouri USA region with skill better than climatology [1][2][3]. Also, [1] demonstrated that atmospheric blocking occurring over the Pacific Region can have a strong influence on the character of warm season conditions over the Missouri USA region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The work of [5] demonstrated a similar transition based dependence in western Russia, and [5,6] confirmed the tendency for atmospheric blocking to influence growing season conditions. Then [3] used this information along with time series analysis of crop yields to generate tendencies for soybean and corn yields based on the transition phase of ENSO.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Then [2] expanded on the work of [1] to include several cities across the central USA from 1900 to 2005. These statistical relationships became the basis for the work of [3]. However, ENSO variability can be somewhat localized [8][9][10] and the relationships found in [1,3] are generally applicable for much of Missouri and adjacent regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These statistical relationships became the basis for the work of [3]. However, ENSO variability can be somewhat localized [8][9][10] and the relationships found in [1,3] are generally applicable for much of Missouri and adjacent regions. Indeed [2,11] demonstrated that ENSO and PDO variability in southwest Missouri can be different from that of regions to the north and east.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This information can then be used to make seasonal range forecasts for the study area. The methodologies of [1][2][3] are applied to determine if significant interannual variability exists in the region and can relate to variability in the PSA or South Pacific Region blocking. The initial results suggest that interannual variability related to ENSO exists in the region for the summer season, and that circulation differences in the winter transition seasons may be useful indicators of summer conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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ENSO Related Seasonal Range Prediction over South America

Lupo

Garcia²,

Rojas³

et al. 2017

Proceedings of the 2nd International Electronic Conference on Atmospheric Sciences

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Seasonal range prediction over North America has been based on intraseasonal and interannual variability related to the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern and El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. These phenomena have an impact on the occurrence of atmospheric blocking and the long-term conditions for North America. Similar relationships may be found for seasonal range prediction over South America. Previous studies have examined ENSOrelated variability of the South Pacific Jetstream as well as atmospheric blocking. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, the character of the monthly circulations were studied over the South Pacific/South America sector from 2000-2016. Initial results show that there is a negative correlation in the upper air circulation over the East Pacific and South America during winter for ENSO. Also, the interannual variability in the jet-stream pattern for the region as related to ENSO shows a 180° phase difference. Finally, there is evidence that the circulation pattern for the 2000-2016 may be different from that of the latter part of the 20th century as indicated by a recent reversal of the interdecadal variability of atmospheric blocking over the South Pacific Region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

ENSO Related Seasonal Range Prediction over South America

Lupo

Garcia²,

Rojas³

et al. 2017

Proceedings of the 2nd International Electronic Conference on Atmospheric Sciences

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Effects of cyclic variability in Pacific decadal oscillation on winter wheat production in China

Shen

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Due to restrictions on the long period ranges of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the limited amount of winter wheat yield data in China, there is little knowledge or understanding of the effects of PDO on winter wheat production in China. To fill this knowledge gap, we simulated over 100 years of winter wheat yields using a process‐based crop model over eight locations in the dominant winter wheat‐producing area across China during 1902–2014. By using the continuous wavelet transform, we found that winter wheat yields had inter‐annual variability (4‐ and 8‐year periods) and interdecadal oscillations (22‐year and over 50‐year). The cross wavelet transform results indicated that interdecadal variations of winter wheat yields and PDO were in phase. The interdecadal variation components of PDO and winter wheat yields from 1902 to 2014 show that when PDO was in the positive (negative) phase, winter wheat yields tended to increase (decrease) by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The interdecadal variations of winter wheat yields were significantly associated with PDO and the mean correlation coefficient was .83. The contribution rate of PDO on winter wheat yields was approximately 11%. The interdecadal variation in winter wheat production was principally determined by the interdecadal oscillation in April precipitation and December temperature, which was modulated by the phase change of PDO. The mean correlation coefficient was −.50 and .59, respectively. This is because during the negative (positive) phase of PDO, more (less) April precipitation, and lower (higher) December temperature in the study area occur, whereas an increase in April precipitation and lower December temperature adversely affect winter wheat production. This study can aid governments and farmers to recognize the hazards of excess April precipitation and low December temperature in negative PDO years. Overall, the decadal variation in winter wheat yields due to PDO facilitates the prediction of winter wheat yields, and PDO influences crop growth by modulating large‐scale oscillation patterns.

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ENSO and PDO related interannual variability in the north and east‐central part of the Bolivian Altiplano in South America

Rojas-Murillo

Lupo

Garcia

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Previous studies in this region focused on interannual and interdecadal precipitation variability during Dec–Feb (summer), relating the El Niño (EN) phase to droughts. Many studies examine this variability over different parts of the Altiplano, and mountainous terrain is well‐known for producing complex climate signals as well as variability over relatively small regions. Studies that have examined climate variability over the Altiplano suggest that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence is complex. The monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature from 1979 to 2017 are used to examine how ENSO and PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation) influence climate conditions. Power spectra analysis determined the periodicities, and analysis of variance was applied to standardized anomalies of the three variables to evaluate PDO and ENSO as variance factors. Frequency distributions were calculated by PDO and ENSO phases, and the differences were tested using the Chi‐square test. Our results suggest a PDO and ENSO influence, displaying more dry anomalies during DJF for EN/PDO(+), in agreement with a northward position of the Bolivian high. More wet anomalies during SON (Sep–Oct–Nov) in Neutral (NEU)/PDO(+) due to an upper‐level weak westerly flow during PDO(+). For maximum temperature, a reduction in cold anomalies during EN/PDO(−) was observed along with greater warm anomalies in JJA (Jun–Jul–Aug), SON and MAM (Mar–Apr–May). Similar results were observed for NEU phase, due to a greater occurrence of high pressures centres over the region during the PDO(−). Minimum temperature results displayed more variation within stations and a less clear response to ENSO compared to PDO. The research found a clear influence of PDO in the regional climatology associated with the influence of the upper‐level jet stream using the NCEP‐NCAR composites. This provided a better understanding of these two phenomena, which would allow the production of seasonal forecasts based on ENSO and PDO using both surface and upper‐level information.

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ENSO and PDO-related climate variability impacts on Midwestern United States crop yields

Cited by 29 publications

References 22 publications

ENSO Related Seasonal Range Prediction over South America

ENSO Related Seasonal Range Prediction over South America

Effects of cyclic variability in Pacific decadal oscillation on winter wheat production in China

ENSO and PDO related interannual variability in the north and east‐central part of the Bolivian Altiplano in South America

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