ENSO Related Seasonal Range Prediction over South America

Lupo, Anthony R.; Garcia, Magalı́; Rojas, Katherine; Gilles, Jere L.

doi:10.3390/ecas2017-04140

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The study of [1] speculated that blocking was on the decrease during the late 20 th century. Lastly, [26] showed that there was a reversal in the proportion of east Pacific blocking occurrences when compared to those of the west Pacific Region. During the +PDO phase there were a larger fraction of east Pacific Region blocking during La Nina and Neutral years, while the opposite was true during the -PDO epoch (La Nina years showed the smallest fraction of east Pacific blocking).…”

Section: Interannual and Interdecadal Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Blocking Characteristics during the First Part of the 21st Century

Lupo

Jensen

Мохов

et al. 2017

Proceedings of the 2nd International Electronic Conference on Atmospheric Sciences

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Abstract:A global blocking climatology published by this group for events that occurred during the late 20th century examined the comprehensive list of characteristics that included block intensity. In addition to confirming the results of other published climatologies, they found that Northern Hemisphere blocking was stronger than Southern Hemisphere events and winter events are stronger than summer ones. This work also examined the interannual variability of blocking as related to El Nino. Since this time, there is evidence that the occurrence of blocking has increased globally. A comparison of blocking characteristics during the first part of the 21st century to those in the late 20th century shows that the number of blocking events and their duration have increased in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The intensity of blocking has decreased by about nine percent in the Northern Hemisphere, but there was little change in the intensity of Southern Hemisphere events. Additionally, there is little or no change in the genesis regions of blocking. An examination of variability related to El Nino and Southern Oscillation reveals that the variability found in the earlier work has reversed. This could either be the result of interdecadal variability or a change in the climate.

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Section: Interannual and Interdecadal Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Blocking Characteristics during the First Part of the 21st Century

Lupo

Jensen

Мохов

et al. 2017

Proceedings of the 2nd International Electronic Conference on Atmospheric Sciences

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“…Various studies of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation were developed previously, and they show a negative relationship between ENSO warm phase (El Nino) and precipitation, meaning that El Nino periods have been linked with a decrease of precipitation (Vicente-Serrano et al, 2015;Garreaud and Aceituno, 2001;Thompson et al, 1984;Francou et al, 2004;Vuille et al, 2000;Vuille, 1999). Other authors have studied ENSO-based seasonal forecasting (Lupo et al, 2017), and crop relation with climate variability (Garcia et al, 2007;Porter and Semenov, 2005). On the other hand, previous research of the relationship between ENSO and crop production was developed at global scale (Iizumi et al, 2014) and in South America (Anderson et al, 2017).…”

Section: Interactive Commentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response to short comment

Rosso¹

2018

Preprint

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Response to reviewers The authors thank the editor, reviewers, and third person s comments for time spent and efforts to improve the manuscript. We have revised the manuscript accordingly taking the reviewers and third person s comments into due consideration. Below follow answers to the reviewer s comments and description of actions taken. While the reviewers indicated that the article is of substantial interest and relevant for the journal they criticized the misleading title as well as the analysis to be "poorly exe-C1 NHESSD Interactive comment

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Section: C13mentioning

confidence: 99%

Final response referee 1

Rosso¹

2018

Preprint

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The authors thank the editor, reviewers, and third person s comments for time spent and efforts to improve the manuscript. We have revised the manuscript accordingly taking the reviewers and third person s comments into due consideration. Below follow answers to the reviewer s comments and description of actions taken. While the reviewers indicated that the article is of substantial interest and relevant for the journal they criticized the misleading title as well as the analysis to be "poorly exe-C1 NHESSD Interactive comment Printer-friendly version Discussion paper cuted". Furthermore, they reviewers indicated that the quality of the presented material is "not satisfactory" to support the results found. We agree with the reviewers in the sense that one major restriction to provide a sophisticated model between satellite imagery and agriculture risk is data limitation. However, the unavailability of data to be used for a sophisticated drought modelling approach are very common in a developing country context (World Bank 2016). One way to overcome this challenge is to apply a so-called iterative risk management approach, e.g. starting with baseline estimates using the best data currently available and updating risk estimates continuously over time (see IPCC 2012). Currently there are no studies for the Altiplano which relates satellite sourced imagery with agriculture risk, including possible associations with ENSO. The article tries to fill this gap. We acknowledge the fact that there are other studies in other countries which are using more sophisticated models, however, the situation in the Altiplano, especially the data limitations, restricts the use of such models and we provide a way forward to improve the data situation using high-resolution satellite imagery with a probabilistic approach for agriculture risk. Hence, for the current situation in Bolivia our approach can be regarded as one way forward, and can be used as a baseline case for further analysis in the future. As indicated, the situation is quite similar in other developing countries around the world and our approach can be seen as one way forward how to implement drought risk management under data scarcity including the important connection with the ENSO phenomenon. We also provided now much more detail on the strengths and limitations of the approach, including a detailed uncertainty analysis. Please find our detailed responses to the reviewer comments below.

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ENSO Related Seasonal Range Prediction over South America

Cited by 7 publications

References 21 publications

Changes in Blocking Characteristics during the First Part of the 21st Century

Changes in Blocking Characteristics during the First Part of the 21st Century

Response to short comment

Final response referee 1

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