Effects of cyclic variability in Pacific decadal oscillation on winter wheat production in China

Abstract

Due to restrictions on the long period ranges of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the limited amount of winter wheat yield data in China, there is little knowledge or understanding of the effects of PDO on winter wheat production in China. To fill this knowledge gap, we simulated over 100 years of winter wheat yields using a process‐based crop model over eight locations in the dominant winter wheat‐producing area across China during 1902–2014. By using the continuous wavelet transform, we found that winter wheat yields had inter‐annual variability (4‐ and 8‐year periods) and interdecadal oscillations (22‐year and over 50‐year). The cross wavelet transform results indicated that interdecadal variations of winter wheat yields and PDO were in phase. The interdecadal variation components of PDO and winter wheat yields from 1902 to 2014 show that when PDO was in the positive (negative) phase, winter wheat yields tended to increase (decrease) by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The interdecadal variations of winter wheat yields were significantly associated with PDO and the mean correlation coefficient was .83. The contribution rate of PDO on winter wheat yields was approximately 11%. The interdecadal variation in winter wheat production was principally determined by the interdecadal oscillation in April precipitation and December temperature, which was modulated by the phase change of PDO. The mean correlation coefficient was −.50 and .59, respectively. This is because during the negative (positive) phase of PDO, more (less) April precipitation, and lower (higher) December temperature in the study area occur, whereas an increase in April precipitation and lower December temperature adversely affect winter wheat production. This study can aid governments and farmers to recognize the hazards of excess April precipitation and low December temperature in negative PDO years. Overall, the decadal variation in winter wheat yields due to PDO facilitates the prediction of winter wheat yields, and PDO influences crop growth by modulating large‐scale oscillation patterns.

Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections

“…Soil characteristics of the 3H Plain, predominantly sandy-loam with medium depth, neutral pH, and low-tomoderate levels of organic carbon, were informed by prior research [54,55]. The planting density was set at 200 plants/m 2 , referring to the studies [23,56]. All simulations proceeded under conditions devoid of nitrogen application and reliant on rainfall.…”

“…For example, the impacts of planning date shifts on the phenology of double cropping rice was determined by changing the planning date in the DSSAT CERES-Wheat model [22]. Xu et al [23] analyze the effects of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on winter wheat yields by using the DSSAT CERES-Wheat model and found that when PDO was in the positive (negative) phase, winter wheat yields tended to increase (decrease).…”

Climate-Induced Yield Losses for Winter Wheat in Henan Province, North China and Their Relationship with Circulation Anomalies

“…Winter wheat is one of most important staple food crops worldwide, and China is the world's largest wheat producer and consumer [6]. Therefore, there are a large number of papers focusing on the effects of climate change on winter wheat yields in China [7]. Climatic variations are significantly impacted by large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation, and several studies have focused on the teleconnections between circulation patterns and wheat yields.…”

“…For instance, Shuai et al (2013) [8] pointed out that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impacts on wheat yields, and more rainfall in El Niño years leads to a decrease in wheat yields in the provinces of the Yangtze River basin. Xu et al (2020) [7] indicated that the inter-decadal variations in winter wheat yields in major growing regions of China were significantly associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), with its contribution rate to yields being approximately 11%. Chen et al (2020) [9] found that several circulation indices, including PDO, ENSO, SOI, and NAO, had significant impacts on the inter-annual fluctuations of wheat yields in different cities of northern China.…”