Enhancing Climate Resilience at NASA Centers: A Collaboration between Science and Stewardship

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Brown, M. E.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Dominguez, Olga; Fellows, Merrilee; Friedl, Lawrence; Graham, William D.; Hall, Carlton R.; Higuchi, Sam; Iraci, L. T.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Kaye, Jack A.; Loewenstein, M.; Mace, Thomas H.; Milesi, C.; Patzert, William C.; Stackhouse, Paul W.; Toufectis, Kim

doi:10.1175/bams-d-12-00169.1

Cited by 22 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(28 reference statements)

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“…This bias toward such cautious estimates has been described previously as erring on the side of least drama (Brysse et al, 2013). Rather than erring on the side of least drama (Brysse et al, 2013), such studies better encompass less likely, but more severe outcomes of future SLR that may be of greater interest to audiences concerned with risk-based perspectives (e.g., Rosenzweig et al, 2014). Rather than erring on the side of least drama (Brysse et al, 2013), such studies better encompass less likely, but more severe outcomes of future SLR that may be of greater interest to audiences concerned with risk-based perspectives (e.g., Rosenzweig et al, 2014).…”

Section: 1029/2018ef000991mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many individual studies, both globally and locally (R. M. Horton et al, 2011), have not constrained the ranges of their SLR projections in the same conservative manner as the IPCC reports. Rather than erring on the side of least drama (Brysse et al, 2013), such studies better encompass less likely, but more severe outcomes of future SLR that may be of greater interest to audiences concerned with risk-based perspectives (e.g., Rosenzweig et al, 2014).…”

Section: 1029/2018ef000991mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

et al. 2018

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The modern era of scientific global-mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global-mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections shrank from 1.3-1.8 m during the 1980s to 0.6-0.9 m in 2007, before expanding again to 0.5-2.5 m since 2013. Upper projections of SLR from individual studies are generally higher than upper projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, potentially due to differing percentile bounds or a predisposition of consensus-based approaches toward relatively conservative outcomes.Plain Language Summary In spite of more than 35 years of research, and over 70 individual studies, the upper bound of future global-mean sea level rise (SLR) remains deeply uncertain. In an effort to improve understanding of the history of the science behind projected SLR, we present and analyze the first comprehensive database of 21st century global-mean SLR projections. Results show a reduction in the range of SLR projections from the first studies through the mid-2000s that has since reversed. In addition, results from this work indicate a tendency for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to err on the side of least drama-a conservative bias that could potentially impede risk management.

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Section: 1029/2018ef000991mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 1029/2018ef000991mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

et al. 2018

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“…Climate change projections indicate that precipitation patterns will be altered in many areas. Intermediate projections for CCBIC suggest that annual precipitation will not vary much from the long-term mean (-2 to +8%); although, variations in seasonality may occur [ 38 ]. Increased temperature is also expected to impact vegetation migration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We defined a vegetation community as an assemblage of dominant plant life forms organized in relation to elevation and salinity. Our assumption was that the relationship between vegetation communities and elevation would persist following SLR of between 0.2 m and 1.2 m as predicted by the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) downscaled projections through the later part of the 21 st century ( Table 1 ) [ 38 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

et al. 2017

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Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m). We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC’s land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub) and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh). Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including important xeric upland communities, as a foundation for management decisions and future modeling.

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“…These downscaled projections for 2050 are developed using data provided by Radley Horton and Daniel Bader, Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute, Columbia University as part of the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators Program (Rosenzweig et al 2014). Fig.…”

Section: Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Impact On Groundwatermentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Climate Change on Florida's Water Resources

Obeysekera¹,

Graham²,

Sukop³

et al. 2017

Florida’s Climate: Changes, Variations, &Amp; Impacts

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Water resources systems in Florida are unique and exhibit significant diversity in hydrogeologic characteristics and in rainfall and temperature patterns. In many parts of the state, both surface and groundwater systems are complex, highly interconnected, and any change in hydrologic drivers such as rainfall or temperature has the potential to impact the water resources of the urban, agricultural, and ecological systems. Because of this diversity, it is not possible to present a single overall outlook regarding the implications of climate change on the water resources of the state. This chapter presents brief summaries of individual studies that are available for major water resources systems in the state, which include the Everglades, the Tampa Bay region, the St. Johns River watershed, and the Suwannee River and Apalachicola River basins. Available climate models and their downscaled versions have varying degrees of bias and lack of skill that need to be considered in impact analyses. In all regions,projected changes in rainfall, temperature, and sea level may have significant impacts on water supply, water levels in environmentally sensitive areas, flood protection, and water quality. Key Messages• Water resources are an integral contributor to Florida's economy, but there is increasing competition for water supply among the urban, agricultural, and environmental sectors due to population growth in the state.• Climate change along with rising sea levels will exacerbate the competition for water and it is extremely important to understand the potential impacts on this vital resource through actionable science that is relevant to this region.• Although different climate models predict a consistent increase in future temperatures, future precipitation is not yet consistently predicted and could be higher or lower. Differences in precipitation propagate into significant differences in future streamflow, groundwater levels, and ET predictions.• The range of future hydrologic conditions predicted by climate models allows an evaluation of the spectrum of possible future risks, but does not provide actionable information because the uncertainty is so high. Improvement in the ability of the climate models to simulate both retrospective and future rainfall patterns will be required before their projections can reliably be used for water resource planning and management• Impact assessment to date on large-scale, regional basins in the state demonstrates that future climate change has a significant potential to impact both water quantity and quality, and as a consequence, additional research is necessary to develop standardized climate projections and conduct impact assessment on the water resources systems on a statewide basis. 84 • JAYANTHA OBEYSEKERA ET AL.• Potential increases in temperature, and the variations in precipitation patterns may degrade water quality, exacerbate algae problems, and cause eutrophication of important water bodies. KeywordsRainfall; Temperature; Groundwater; Sea level rise; Water quality; G...

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Enhancing Climate Resilience at NASA Centers: A Collaboration between Science and Stewardship

Cited by 22 publications

References 37 publications

Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

Implications of Climate Change on Florida's Water Resources

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