Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

Abstract

Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m). We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC’s land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub) and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh). Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including important xeric upland communities, as a foundation for management decisions and future modeling.

Accounting for heterogeneity in false‐positive detection rate in southeastern beach mouse habitat occupancy models

“…Given future threats to southeastern beach mouse populations in the dune/strand habitat due to sea level rise and coastal erosion (Foster et al. ), it is important that we understand the status and connection of the interior scrub habitat for the persistence of this threatened species.…”

“…Opportunities for recolonization may be limited because this region is connected with the adjacent dune/strand habitat by a very narrow corridor of marginally suitable habitat, which may limit dispersal. Given future threats to southeastern beach mouse populations in the dune/strand habitat due to sea level rise and coastal erosion (Foster et al 2017), it is important that we understand the status and connection of the interior scrub habitat for the persistence of this threatened species.…”

“…Much of the coastal habitat currently occupied by the southeastern beach mouse is adjacent to eroding beaches, and accelerating sea level rise due to global climate change is threatening the remaining habitat (Foster et al. ). In addition to this coastal habitat, the southeastern beach mouse also occurs in scrub habitat farther inland and with more vertical vegetative structure than the habitat of other beach mouse subspecies (Extine and Stout ).…”

“…The current range of the southeastern beach mouse has been reduced to a single core population along 72 km of continuous coastline on federal lands surrounding the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and two small, isolated populations located 16 km to the north (Smyrna Dunes Park) and 72 km to the south (Pelican Island National Wildlife Refuge). Much of the coastal habitat currently occupied by the southeastern beach mouse is adjacent to eroding beaches, and accelerating sea level rise due to global climate change is threatening the remaining habitat (Foster et al 2017). In addition to this coastal habitat, the southeastern beach mouse also occurs in scrub habitat farther inland and with more vertical vegetative structure than the habitat of other beach mouse subspecies (Extine and Stout 1987).…”

The effects of vegetative type, edges, fire history, rainfall, and management in fire‐maintained habitat

“…Fires in scrub can also spread poorly depending on meteorological conditions such as soil and fuel moisture that can be influenced by rainfall (Adrian ), and thus, a rapidly changing climate is likely to further impact disturbance regimes (Turner , Foster et al. ).…”