Implications of Climate Change on Florida's Water Resources

Abstract

Water resources systems in Florida are unique and exhibit significant diversity in hydrogeologic characteristics and in rainfall and temperature patterns. In many parts of the state, both surface and groundwater systems are complex, highly interconnected, and any change in hydrologic drivers such as rainfall or temperature has the potential to impact the water resources of the urban, agricultural, and ecological systems. Because of this diversity, it is not possible to present a single overall outlook regarding the implications of climate change on the water resources of the state. This chapter presents brief summaries of individual studies that are available for major water resources systems in the state, which include the Everglades, the Tampa Bay region, the St. Johns River watershed, and the Suwannee River and Apalachicola River basins. Available climate models and their downscaled versions have varying degrees of bias and lack of skill that need to be considered in impact analyses. In all regions,projected changes in rainfall, temperature, and sea level may have significant impacts on water supply, water levels in environmentally sensitive areas, flood protection, and water quality. Key Messages• Water resources are an integral contributor to Florida's economy, but there is increasing competition for water supply among the urban, agricultural, and environmental sectors due to population growth in the state.• Climate change along with rising sea levels will exacerbate the competition for water and it is extremely important to understand the potential impacts on this vital resource through actionable science that is relevant to this region.• Although different climate models predict a consistent increase in future temperatures, future precipitation is not yet consistently predicted and could be higher or lower. Differences in precipitation propagate into significant differences in future streamflow, groundwater levels, and ET predictions.• The range of future hydrologic conditions predicted by climate models allows an evaluation of the spectrum of possible future risks, but does not provide actionable information because the uncertainty is so high. Improvement in the ability of the climate models to simulate both retrospective and future rainfall patterns will be required before their projections can reliably be used for water resource planning and management• Impact assessment to date on large-scale, regional basins in the state demonstrates that future climate change has a significant potential to impact both water quantity and quality, and as a consequence, additional research is necessary to develop standardized climate projections and conduct impact assessment on the water resources systems on a statewide basis. 84 • JAYANTHA OBEYSEKERA ET AL.• Potential increases in temperature, and the variations in precipitation patterns may degrade water quality, exacerbate algae problems, and cause eutrophication of important water bodies. KeywordsRainfall; Temperature; Groundwater; Sea level rise; Water quality; G...

The Effects of Climate Variability on Florida’s Major Water Resources

“…Florida is the third most populous state in the country, with a population of over 21 million [50], and the population is increasing at an estimated 300,000 annually, particularly along the coastal shoreline counties [51]. The combined impacts of changing climate and future population growth are expected to create additional demand on Florida's groundwater resources, which are currently nearing their sustainable limits [24,52]. By 2030, the state's demand for freshwater is projected to increase by approximately 28% compared to 2005 levels (USEPA 2013a).…”

“…By 2030, the state's demand for freshwater is projected to increase by approximately 28% compared to 2005 levels (USEPA 2013a). As the water resources which Floridians currently depend heavily on for their water supply become susceptible to the impacts of changing climate, local governments are under increasing pressure to sustainably manage Florida's water supply, optimize water allocations, and develop water conservation techniques [2,52,53].…”

“…In recent years, both the scope and depth of climate-change research have increased steadily with new scientific research conducted on climate-change effects on Florida's coastal and marine ecosystems, water supplies and management issues, eutrophication, surface runoff, and sediment load variability, as well as coastal ocean chemistry [57,63,[76][77][78]. Recently, Obeysekera et al [52] conducted a review on the influences of changing climate on Florida's major terrestrial water resources based on individual studies. This review highlighted the effects of climate change on four major regions: the Greater Everglades ecosystem, the Tampa Bay region, the St. Johns River Basin, and the Suwannee and Apalachicola River Basin.…”

“…Although various climate models predict a steady increase in future temperatures, future precipitation has not yet been reliably projected. [52]. Based on a review of downscaled general circulation models, Obeysekera et al [52] found that reasonable changes in Florida's annual rainfall are ±5% and ±10% for 2040 and 2070, respectively.…”

Environmental Hazards: A Coverage Response Approach

“…The promise and delivery of improved quality of life with social participation [9], and the role of Smart Systems in creating more efficient, effective [10], and more sustainability and leisure or health-oriented societies [11][12][13] is evident. The use and/or distribution of resources (e.g., water), whether politically motivated or otherwise [14,15] as related to policy, are also laudable. Further, the combination of real-time in situ observational platforms [16] that include immediate dissemination offer the public access to view and monitor events or situations of interest continuously.…”