Energy intensities: revealing or misleading?

Abstract

INCREASED EFFICIENCY in energy conversions was neither a matter of government policy nor a widespread goal of industrial management during the generations of abundant energy supply and declining real fossil fuel and electricity prices. OPEC's actions changed this neglect both rapidly and universally. Concerns about energy efficiency influenced many post-1973 policy and management decisions, and led to a spreading use of performance indicators in both intra-and international comparisons. And the efficiency concerns did not disappear after world energy prices declined in 1986: the surge of worries about the state of the global environmentmost notably the possibility of relatively rapid climate change (Office of Technology Assessment, 1991)has assured continued interest in rational energy use (Tester et al, 1991).Readily available performance ratings of individual convertors and a large number of detailed process energy analyses provide specific information about the efficiency of devices and techniques, and such assessments can be used profitably not only in industrial management, but also in policy formulation and for public exhortation. But, as modem societies constantly use macroeconomic indicators to gauge national performance and to make international comparisons, there is also a need for an aggregate and readily comprehensible measure of energy efficiency. The energy intensity of a nation's economy appears to be such a revealing indicator: in its most general form, it is simply a ratio of the total primary energy use and the gross domestic product (GDP).The heuristic appeal of aggregate energy intensities is obvious. As every economic activity involves the conversion of energy, nations, which have relatively low consumption of fuels and electricity per unit of GDP, should enjoy some

Future of Oil: Trends and Surprises

“…Increased efficiency in energy use has already made an enormous difference to the world's future fuel and electricity demand (Smil, 1994b). In spite of low post-1985 oil prices, the oil intensity of Western economies keeps declining: even in the relatively wasteful USA, it should be more than 40 per cent below the 1985 rate by the year 2000 (General Accounting Office, 1996).…”

Reassessing energy intensities: a quest for new realism

“…Limited resource endowments, on the other hand, might act as an incentive for many to be less reliant on energy as a factor of production. In fact, big energy importers tend to have relatively low energy intensities (Smil, 1994). Income levels, which are a major determinant of the lifestyle people GDP/Capita -$1000 (1990) can afford, can affect the use of energy, particularly for non-production purposes in the residential or transportation sectors.…”

“…As a third approach, total intensities are calculated based on PPP-adjusted real GDP. Although similar calculations are made for selected OECD countries (Shin, op cit; Smil, 1994) and developing countries (IEA, 1994a), based on commercial energy only, in this comparative analysis it is preferred to use total energy, because of the critical shortcomings of the omission of biomass in aggregate energy intensities, primarily affecting developing countries.…”