LN RECENT YEARS, the energy sectors of developing countries have exhibited a dynamic character. In addition to the important changes in the shares of consuming sectors and fuels in aggregate demand patterns, the energy consumption trends of these countries have moved steadily upwards. This, together with the slowdown in the growth of total energy consumption in the industrialized countries, has underlain the rapidly growing role of developing countries in the world energy market.The share of developing countries in world energy consumption rose from ten per cent in 1970 to about 20 per cent in 1992, while the share of OECD countries fell from 65 per cent to 5 1 per cent in the same period. The annual average energy consumption growth rate of developing countries was about 5.5 per cent in the period 1970-92, compared with one per cent per annum for the OECD countries in the same period.There are several economic, social and demographic factors behind these trends of the past two decades.l The wide range of projections on the future course of global energy demand suggests the continuity of this development (see, for example, WEC, 1993, among others). In most scenarios, it is expected that, by the turn of this century, almost all the increase in energy demand will be coming from the developing world (Churchill, 1993).
IntroductionTHE ENERGY MARKETS of developing countries (DCs) exhibit a dynamic character, not only because they show a rapid growth in energy consumption but also because they undergo substantial changes in the shares of energy-consuming sectors and shifts in the fuel mix. Despite this vigorous feature, the energy issues of DCs have not received much attention in the literature.In addition to the presentation of 40 years' worth of energy intensities for country groupings, this tenth issue of the annual 'Energy indicators' series focuses on one of the crucial topics of developing energy economics, namely, noncommercial energy. This year's paper concentrates on generating a time-series on non-commercial energy (NCE) consumption in DCs and discussing the effects of introducing this type of energy to global energy analysis.The analysis starts with the presentation of the usual statistics on energy intensities. Section 3 summarizes the characteristics and the role of NCE. Section 4 discusses the implications of excluding NCE from energy analysis. Section 5 describes the methodology employed in order to generate a time-series on NCE consumption. Section 6 applies the results of the empirical study to some conventional energy demand analysis. Some concluding remarks in section 7 complete this paper. Energy intensityEnergy intensity is a widely used indicator, expressing the ratio of energy consumption to gross domestic product. It is employed mainly to evaiuate the level and development of energy use efficiency. Broadly interpreted, a high energy intensity indicates low efficiency in energy use, while a low intensity reflects high efficiency. In this paper, energy intensity is calculated as barrels of oil equivalent per US $1,000 GDP at 1985 exchange rates and prices. Tables la-j in the annex present the evolution of energy intensity for 1950-90, together with a time-series for energy demand disaggregated by fuel type and real GDP. Mr Paga is Head, and Dr Birol Statistician, in the Statistics Section, Data Services Department, OPEC Secretariat, Vienna. This paper is the tenth in an annual 'Energy indicators' series, which began with the Winter 1982 issue of the OPEC Review. The authors would like to express their gratitude to Dr Franz Wirl, of the Institute of Energy Economics, Technical University of Vienna, for his valuable comments and suggestions.
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