Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century—exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

Vuuren, Detlef van; Fengqi, Zhou; Vries, Bert de; Jiang, Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li, Yun

doi:10.1016/s0301-4215(02)00070-8

Cited by 79 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 11 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of China's future energy consumption and GHG emissions (Adams and Shachmurove, 2008;Cai et al, 2008;Chen et al, 2007;Dai et al, 2011;de Laquil et al, 2003;Fan et al, 2011;Tu et al, 2007;Van Vuuren et al, 2003;Wei et al, 2008). With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of models of China's energy and emissions outlook have been developed across different institutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Although China became the world's largest CO 2 emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios -Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement -were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO 2 emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Examples of articles Forecasts [13], [14], [22], [25], [26], [30], [31], [34], [38], [47], [49], [52], [55], [56], [61], [63], [65], [67], [68], [70], [81], [84], [89] Back casting and roadmaps [15], [17], [20], [21], [23], [24], [28], [37], [42], [50], [52], [60], [62], [70], [73], [78], [85], [86] Exploratory studies and visions [19], [24], [27], [35], [41], [44], [77], [86] Assessments and evaluations of previously made scenarios [16...…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first article covering the globe as a whole was published 1993 [85]. The first article covering China was published as late as 2003 [86]. security of supply -and climate change As mentioned; a certain amount of articles does have an interest to analyse a whole future situation -like a country, a region or the whole globe -or apply its issue of interest in a geographical setting (or as a case).…”

Section: A Geographical Interest: National Regional Globalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For identified articles within each category see Table 6. Climate change, One, out of two: [17], [21], [23], [24], [25], [26], [28], [39], [42], [53], [56], [57], [60], [62], [67], [70], [78], [82], [84], [85], [86], [87], [88] [37], [43], [66], [72], [77], [79] Housing [27], [35], [61], [74], [75], |76] Transportation [14], [20], [40], [65], [81], [89] Industry [19], [88] Security of supply and energy sources [15], [16], [31], [33], [38], [41], [44], …”

Section: A Geographical Interest: National Regional Globalmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Getting back to scenario planning: Strategic action in the future of energy Europe

Blomgren

Jonsson²,

Lagergren

2011

2011 8th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Scenario planning is a commonly used method in order to analyse complex aspects of the energy system. Historically it has been an important tool to prepare for long-term action. Today however, due to the deregulated market, it could be assumed that scenario analysis is abandoned. Maybe more (the only) attention is on short-term action.This Three conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the main use of scenario planning still tends to be a support to political processes. Secondly, three major issues and drivers for change dominate when different aspects of the energy system are analysed in scenario projects: climate change, security in terms of demand/supply and economic development. Thirdly, it is concluded that scenario planning still tend to be of value when analysing the future of the deregulated energy sector in Europe.However, in order to be fully utilized for the future scenario methodology must take into account that energy industry actors are not being controlled by politics as they where during the regulated period.

show abstract

“…As the largest developing country of energy production and consumption in the world, the issue of China's energy resources development is not only the key problem which affects China's rapid and sustainable development in the 21st century, but also the one which international attention focuses on (Jonathan and David, 2000;Detlef et al, 2003;Eric et al, 2003). Generally speaking, China has various and plentiful energy resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The temporal and spatial patterns and potential evaluation of China’s energy resources development

Zhang

et al. 2010

J. Geogr. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The issue of China's energy supply security is not only the key problem which affects China's rapid and sustainable development in the 21st century, but also the one which international attention focuses on. Based on the notable characteristic of spatial imbalance between energy production and consumption in China, this paper takes the evolution of China's primary energy resources development(excluding hydropower) from 1949 to 2007 as the study object, with the aim to sum up the evolutive characteristics and laws of China's energy resources development in the past nearly 60 years. Then, based on comprehensive considerations of coal's, oil's and natural gas's basic reserves, qualities, geological conditions, production status, and ecological service function of every province, this paper adopts development potential index (DP)to evaluate the development potential of every province's energy resources, and divide them into different ranks. Conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) Generally speaking, China's gross energy production was increasing in waves from 1949 to 2007. From the viewpoint of spatial patterns, China's energy resources development has shown a characteristic of "concentrating to the north and central areas, and evolving from linear-shaped to "T-shaped" pattern gradually since 1949. (2) The structure evolution of China's energy resources development in general has shown a trend of "coal proportion is dominant but decreasing, while oil and gas proportions are increasing" since 1949. (3) At the provincial scale, China's energy resources development potential could be divided into large, sub-large, general and small ranks, four in all. In the future, the spatial pattern of China's energy production will evolve from "T-shaped" to "∏-shaped pattern". These conclusions will help to clarify the temporal and spatial characteristics and laws of China's energy resources development, and will be beneficial for China to design scientific and rational energy development strategies and plans, coordinate spatial imbalance of energy production and consumption, ensure national energy supply, avoid energy resources waste and disorderly development, and promote regional sustainable development under the globalization background with changeful international energy market.

show abstract

Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century—exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

Cited by 79 publications

References 11 publications

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

Getting back to scenario planning: Strategic action in the future of energy Europe

The temporal and spatial patterns and potential evaluation of China’s energy resources development

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About