Empirical Analyses of Plant‐Climate Relationships for the Western United States

Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Crookston, Nicholas L.; Warwell, Marcus V.; Evans, Jeffrey S.

doi:10.1086/507711

Cited by 418 publications

(441 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…We assessed the potential for climate to alter important PNW tree species distributions by using spatially explicit projections from recently published analyses of climate and species responses for western North America (Rehfeldt et al, 2006). Specifically, we were most concerned with the potential for climatic stress on regeneration or mortality in Douglas-fir forests and the potential for stress in three species susceptible to the mountain pine beetle (lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta; ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa; and whitebark pine, Pinus albicaulis) in the PNW.…”

Section: Climate and Changes In Species Biogeographymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We focused on Douglas-fir because it is widespread and economically important and on the pine species because of their potential for interaction with the mountain pine beetle, particularly in forests east of the Cascades. For each species, we used Rehfeldt et al (2006) grid maps of potential future habitat based on climate and combined these to develop summary maps of areas where climate is likely to exceed Rehfeldt et al's (2006) estimates of the tolerances of Douglas-fir. We used a similar approach to assess areas of change in pine species richness for the end of the 2040s-2060s (Rehfeldt's analyses are for the 2030s and 2060s).…”

Section: Climate and Changes In Species Biogeographymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used a similar approach to assess areas of change in pine species richness for the end of the 2040s-2060s (Rehfeldt's analyses are for the 2030s and 2060s). After Rehfeldt et al (2006), we assumed that areas with ≥ 75% agreement among statistical climate/species models represented climatic conditions where the species was likely to occur. We assumed that areas with < 75% but ≥ 50% agreement were potential areas of future occurrence but where climatic variability might put the species at some risk, and we assumed that areas with <50% agreement were unlikely to have sustained climatic conditions appropriate for species persistence and regeneration after disturbance.…”

Section: Climate and Changes In Species Biogeographymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By the end of the 2060s, independent species range modeling based on IPCC scenarios (a medium emissions scenario for both HadCM3 and CGCM2, Rehfeldt et al 2006) suggests that climate will be sufficiently different from the late 20 th century to constrain Douglas-fir distribution ( Figure 5). This is probably due to increases in temperature and decreases in growing season water availability in more arid environments (e.g., in the Columbia Basin) but could be due to other variables in less arid parts of the species' range.…”

Section: Climate and Changes In Species Biogeographymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

et al. 2010

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C limatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes. First, we analyze how climate affects Douglas-fir growth across the region to understand potential changes in future growth. In areas where Douglas-fir is not water-limited, future growth will continue to vary with interannual climate variability, but in places where Douglas-fir is water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to projected increase in summer potential evapotranspiration. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on future potential tree species ranges to highlight areas where species turnover may be greatest. By the mid 21 st century, some areas of the interior Columbia Basin and eastern Cascades are likely to have climates poorly suited to pine species that are susceptible to mountain pine beetle, and if these pines are climatically stressed, they may be more vulnerable to pine beetle attack. Climatic suitability for Douglas-fir is also likely to change, with substantial decreases in climatically suitable area in the Puget Trough and the Okanogan Highlands. Third, using regression approaches, we examine the relationships between climate and the area burned by fire in the PNW and in eight Washington ecosystems and project future area burned in response to changing climate. Area burned is significantly related to both temperature and precipitation in summer, but more physiologically relevant variables, such as water balance deficit, perform as well or better in models. Regional area burned is likely to double or even triple by the end of the 2040s, although Washington ecosystems have different sensitivities to climate and thus different responses to climatic change. Fourth, we evaluate the influence of climatic change on mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks by quantifying both host-tree vulnerability and pine beetle adaptive seasonality. Host-tree vulnerability is closely related to vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and future projections support the hypothesis that summer VPD will increase over a significant portion of the range of host tree species. Due to the increased host 255vulnerability, MPB populations are expected to become more viable at higher elevations leading to increased incidence of MPB outbreaks. The increased rates of disturbance by fire and mountain pine beetle are likely to be more significant agents of changes in forest structure and composition in the 21st century than species turnover or declines in productivity. This suggests that understanding future disturbance regimes is critical for successful adaptation to climate change.

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Section: Climate and Changes In Species Biogeographymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate and Changes In Species Biogeographymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate and Changes In Species Biogeographymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate and Changes In Species Biogeographymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

et al. 2010

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“…Changes in MAP in the SW US are less certain than projections of MAT [7], however, evaporative demand is expected to rise with increases in MAT potentially resulting in massive mortality events [4]. While the link between climate and vegetation has been successfully used to model species distributions [26][27][28], part of the difficulty in modeling particular stand-level responses to climate change results from the lack of high-resolution, spatial data on historic climate variables [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon Stocks and Climate Change: Management Implications in Northern Arizona Ponderosa Pine Forests

Bagdon

Huang

2014

Forests

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Abstract:Researchers have observed climate-driven shifts of forest types to higher elevations in the Southwestern US and predict further migration coupled with large-scale mortality events proportional to increases in radiative forcing. Range contractions of forests are likely to impact the total carbon stored within a stand. This study examines the dynamics of Pinus ponderosa stands under three climate change scenarios in Northern Arizona using the Climate Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS) model to project changes in carbon pools. A sample of 90 stands were grouped according to three elevational ranges; low-(1951 to 2194 m), mid-(2194 to 2499 m), and high-(2499 to 2682 m.) elevation stands. Growth, mortality, and carbon stores were simulated in the Climate-FVS over a 100 year timespan. We further simulated three management scenarios for each elevational gradient and climate scenario. Management included (1) a no-management scenario, (2) an intensive-management scenario characterized by thinning from below to a residual basal area (BA) of 18 m 2 /ha in conjunction with a prescribed burn every 10 years, and (3) a moderate-management scenario characterized by a thin-from-below treatment to a residual BA of 28 m 2 /ha coupled with a prescribed burn every 20 years. Results indicate that any increase in aridity due to climate change will produce substantial mortality throughout the elevational range of ponderosa pine stands, with lower elevation stands projected to experience the most devastating effects. Management was only effective for the intensive-management scenario; stands receiving this treatment schedule maintained moderately consistent levels of basal area and demonstrated a higher level of resilience to climate change relative to the two other management scenarios. The results of this study indicate that management can improve OPEN ACCESSForests 2014, 5 621 resiliency to climate change, however, resource managers may need to employ more intensive thinning treatments than currently proposed to achieve the best results.

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Investigation of North American vegetation variability under recent climate: A study using the SSiB4/TRIFFID biophysical/dynamic vegetation model

et al. 2015

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Recent studies have shown that current dynamic vegetation models have serious weaknesses in reproducing the observed vegetation dynamics and contribute to bias in climate simulations. This study intends to identify the major factors that underlie the connections between vegetation dynamics and climate variability and investigates vegetation spatial distribution and temporal variability at seasonal to decadal scales over North America (NA) to assess a 2-D biophysical model/dynamic vegetation model's (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID)) ability to simulate these characteristics for the past 60 years (1948 through 2008). Satellite data are employed as constraints for the study and to compare the relationships between vegetation and climate from the observational and the simulation data sets. Trends in NA vegetation over this period are examined. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis, leaf drop threshold temperatures, and competition coefficients in the Lotka-Volterra equation, which describes the population dynamics of species competing for some common resource, have been identified as having major impacts on vegetation spatial distribution and obtaining proper initial vegetation conditions in SSiB4/TRIFFID. The finding that vegetation competition coefficients significantly affect vegetation distribution suggests the importance of including biotic effects in dynamical vegetation modeling. The improved SSiB4/TRIFFID can reproduce the main features of the NA distributions of dominant vegetation types, the vegetation fraction, and leaf area index (LAI), including its seasonal, interannual, and decadal variabilities. The simulated NA LAI also shows a general increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Both simulation and satellite observations reveal that LAI increased substantially in the southeastern U.S. starting from the 1980s. The effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from decreases in the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. Both simulated and satellite-derived LAIs have the strongest correlations with air temperature at northern middle to high latitudes in spring reflecting the effect of these climatic variables on photosynthesis and phenological processes. Meanwhile, in southwestern dry lands, negative correlations appear due to the heat and moisture stress there during the summer. Furthermore, there are also positive correlations between soil wetness and LAI, which increases from spring to summer. The present study shows both the current improvements and remaining weaknesses in dynamical vegetation models. It also highlights large continental-scale variations that have occurred in NA vegetation over the past six decades and their potential relations to climate. With more observational data availability, more studies with different models and focusing on different regions wil...

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Empirical Analyses of Plant‐Climate Relationships for the Western United States

Cited by 418 publications

References 61 publications

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Carbon Stocks and Climate Change: Management Implications in Northern Arizona Ponderosa Pine Forests

Investigation of North American vegetation variability under recent climate: A study using the SSiB4/TRIFFID biophysical/dynamic vegetation model

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