Carbon Stocks and Climate Change: Management Implications in Northern Arizona Ponderosa Pine Forests

Bagdon, Benjamin A.; Huang, Ching Tai

doi:10.3390/f5040620

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The tree mortality in our simulations was similar to Azpeleta et al. (), Bagdon and Huang (), Stoddard et al. (), and Shive et al.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…S1). The tree mortality in our simulations was similar to Azpeleta et al (2014), Bagdon and Huang (2014), Stoddard et al (2015), and Shive et al (2014). However, Azpeleta et al (2014) and Shive et al (2014) found that 20-yr fire intervals maintained a stable forest.…”

Section: Forest Changes Under Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Existing simulation studies suggest the effects on southwestern forests of climate change scenarios will be moderate to severe, i.e., new forest composition, using the C-FVS (Azpeleta et al 2014, Bagdon and Huang 2014 or the Landis-II model (Flatley andFul e 2016, Hurteau et al 2016). The outcomes of our scenarios demonstrate similar results but with relatively more severe loss of forest basal area and composition, drawing closer to the predictions of "massive conifer mortality" suggested by plant physiological theory and experiments (Allen et al 2015, McDowell et al 2016.…”

Section: Forest Changes Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…). Previous simulation modeling studies predict substantial tree mortality throughout the elevation range of ponderosa pine (Bagdon and Huang ) and drastic changes in species composition under future climate change (Azpeleta et al. , Stoddard et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change

Yazzie

Fulé

Kim

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate‐Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate‐Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site‐specific growth models under multiple management systems (no‐management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no‐climate‐change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier‐adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods.

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“…The tree mortality in our simulations was similar to Azpeleta et al. (), Bagdon and Huang (), Stoddard et al. (), and Shive et al.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Forest Changes Under Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Forest Changes Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change

Yazzie

Fulé

Kim

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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show abstract

“…Our multimodel approach linked the empirically based forest growth model Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (C-FVS) (Crookston et al 2010) with the landscape simulation model LANDIS-II (v6.0) (Scheller et al 2007). C-FVS is based on empirical tree species-climate relationships developed from extensive plot data (Rehfeldt et al 2006), and the model has previously been used to project forest response to climate change in the southwestern United States (Azpeleta Tarancón et al 2014, Bagdon andHuang 2014). We used LANDIS-II to simulate spatial patterns of disturbance, succession, and forest growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are historical fire regimes compatible with future climate? Implications for forest restoration

Flatley

Fulé

2016

Ecosphere

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Citation: Flatley, W. T., and P. Z. Fulé. 2016. Are historical fire regimes compatible with future climate? Implications for forest restoration. Ecosphere 7(10):Abstract. The restoration of historical fire regimes is often a primary objective in the conservation of fire-adapted forests. However, individual species' responses to future climate change may uncouple historical vegetation-disturbance relationships, producing potentially negative ecological consequences to fire restoration. We used a landscape simulation model to assess how forest pattern will respond to future climate regimes and whether the restoration of historical fire regimes will benefit forest conservation under future climate regimes. Our study landscape was the 335,000-ha Kaibab Plateau at the North Rim of the Grand Canyon spanning a broad elevation-vegetation gradient of pinyon-juniper, ponderosa pine, mixed conifer, and spruce-fir forests along with a range of associated fire regimes. We employed a novel multimodel landscape simulation approach using the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator to estimate individual tree species climate responses and LANDIS-II to simulate spatial patterns of fire disturbance, forest growth, regeneration, succession, and dispersal. Model simulations included three climate scenarios (no change, moderate change, and high change) and two fire scenarios (fire exclusion and fire restoration). The climate change scenarios produced declines in mean forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and a compositional turnover equal to one or two vegetation zones, approximating the vegetation displacement that occurred in this location during the Holocene. Fire restoration resulted in earlier, but roughly equivalent, AGB declines and compositional change. Uphill species migration in some elevation zones produced tree species-fire regime mismatches that promoted state changes and increased nonforest area. Regardless of fire management approach, our simulations project that the Kaibab Plateau will eventually be dominated by pinyon-juniper, oak, and ponderosa pine forest types, with a complete loss of mesic conifer species.Our results indicate that fire managers will have to be flexible with the application of historical fire regimes to avoid regeneration failures and abrupt declines in biomass.

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Fire Ecology and Management of Southwestern Forests

Fulé

Edgeley

Chambers

et al. 2021

Fire Ecology and Management: Past, Present, and Future of US Forested Ecosystems

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Carbon Stocks and Climate Change: Management Implications in Northern Arizona Ponderosa Pine Forests

Cited by 14 publications

References 53 publications

Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change

Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change

Are historical fire regimes compatible with future climate? Implications for forest restoration

Fire Ecology and Management of Southwestern Forests

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