Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us?

Abstract

What is the impact of emerging technologies on nuclear security and disarmament? Current rapid technological advances are taking place against the backdrop of increased investments in modernizing nuclear arsenals, rising tensions among great powers, and increased pressure on nuclear arms control agreements. Yet, the anticipated net effect of these emerging technologies on the nuclear landscape remains ambiguous. Through a survey with 85 experts and a series of elite interviews with 14 decision-makers, this article contends that while emerging technologies destabilize nuclear deterrence by increasing nuclear risk, they can also create fresh opportunities for nuclear disarmament. Given that new technologies are changing the nature of nuclear threats, this article also argues that we need to change the way we think about arms control if we want to respond effectively to the threats posed by emerging technologies.

Elite-Public Gaps in Attitudes to Nuclear Weapons: New Evidence from a Survey of German Citizens and Parliamentarians

“…Moreover, while elites are likely to be more familiar with the numerous practical obstacles to disarmament, some of the recent developments may have contributed to at least some cautious optimism in this regard. For example, a recent survey of (mostly European) decision-makers found that they expected that emerging technologies would make disarmament verification, one of the major obstacles on the road to "zero", easier ( Onderco and Zutt 2021 ). 4 For all these reasons, we expect that political elites will be relatively more willing to express their belief in disarmament feasibility than the public: H7: Political elites are more convinced than the public that it is feasible to achieve global nuclear disarmament.…”

Not by NPT alone: The future of the global nuclear order

“…And President Trump's tweets in his war of words with North Korea drew attention to various ways in which social media could add to escalatory pressure (Trinkunas et al, 2020;Williams & Drew, 2020). These concerns remain quite speculative, and a recent survey of expert opinion concluded that technological change has contradictory implications: potentially destabilizing deterrence relationships but also opening new opportunities for nuclear disarmament (Onderco & Zutt, 2021). At minimum, however, technological developments are adding new sources of uncertainty to the strategic landscape.…”