Not by NPT alone: The future of the global nuclear order

Abstract

The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) constitutes just one component of broader arrangements that provide global nuclear governance. In recent decades, the other props in the global nuclear order beyond its nonproliferation elements have been eroding, thereby putting more weight on the contributions of the NPT and other aspects of the nonproliferation regime. Unfortunately, recent progress in building up the NPT-based nonproliferation regime seems also to have halted. This article outlines the elements of the global nuclear order and identifies signs of erosion in that order. It discusses whether a greater commitment to nuclear disarmament might help counter that erosion and highlights the underlying cognitive dimension of efforts to avoid nuclear war.

When is it legitimate to abandon the NPT? Withdrawal as a political tool to move nuclear disarmament forward

“…However, after more than 50 years in existence, nuclear weapons remain a fixture in the nuclear weapon states' arsenals to the dismay of most non-nuclear weapon states and global public opinion. As a result, the literature on the NPT has become increasingly forewarning of the treaty's weaknesses and the consequent unraveling of the nuclear order (Carranza, 2006;Sauer, 2006;Dhanapala, 2008;Kmentt, 2013;Arbatov, 2015, Ogilvie-White, 2017Tannenwald, 2018;Knopf, 2022; for a different view, see Horovitz, 2014;Barnum & Lo, 2020;Smetana & O'Mahoney, 2022). However, most analysts stop short of recommending that non-nuclear weapon states withdraw from the NPT; instead they are calling for reform or action to save the treaty.…”