Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States

Abstract

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Electrification Futures Study: Operational Analysis of U.S. Power Systems with Increased Electrification and Demand-Side Flexibility

“…The assessment relies on hourly unit commitment and economic dispatch modeling of a range of future power systems for the conterminous United States, as envisioned by prior EFS studies (Murphy et al 2021). These power systems are modeled to provide sufficient electricity to serve up to 36% of 2050 final U.S. energy demand, which equates to 2050 electricity consumption that is 81% greater than that in 2018 (Mai et al 2018;Murphy et al 2021).…”

“…The assessment relies on hourly unit commitment and economic dispatch modeling of a range of future power systems for the conterminous United States, as envisioned by prior EFS studies (Murphy et al 2021). These power systems are modeled to provide sufficient electricity to serve up to 36% of 2050 final U.S. energy demand, which equates to 2050 electricity consumption that is 81% greater than that in 2018 (Mai et al 2018;Murphy et al 2021). The purpose of this assessment is to explore how variations in the magnitude and shape of electricity demand driven by electrification, and the extent of load participation to more-actively provide grid services, might impact the hourly operation, operational costs, and emissions of various power systems in 2050.…”

“…The EFS applies a scenario analysis approach that includes a combination of demand-side scenarios (Mai et al 2018) and supply-side scenarios (Murphy et al 2021) to isolate and evaluate the impacts of electrification. The scenarios are for the conterminous United States energy system and encompass the time frame of 2018 through 2050.…”

“…Estimates, including for 2018, are directly from the Base Case scenarios from Murphy et al (2021), which include minor adjustments to electricity demand estimates from Mai et al (2018).…”

“…The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) is a multiyear research effort that examines the implications of increasing electrification in the U.S. energy system in the context of other future supply and demand issues. 4 The study relies on a scenario analysis approach, including scenarios that envision changes to both the demand-side (Mai et al 2018) and the supply-side (Murphy et al 2021) of electricity. This report-the sixth in the series of EFS publications-presents an operational analysis of a set of these scenarios using detailed hourly grid simulations for the year 2050.…”