Electoral Confidence and Political Budget Cycles in Non-OECD Countries

Eibl, Ferdinand; Lynge-Mangueira, Halfdan

doi:10.1007/s12116-016-9230-x

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Moreover, pre-election opinion polling is not nearly as prevalent in SSA as in OECD countries, it is often plagued by measurement challenges and controversy (e.g., Heath, Fisher, and Smith 2005), and it is rarely conducted in diaspora communities. Thus, given low political information, prior electoral results are often the strongest signal available to incumbent parties (Eibl andLynge-Mangueira 2017, Somer-Topcu 2009). Where diaspora voter turnout results by party are available (n=47), I code Diaspora Support as equal to 2 for cases where the majority of the diaspora voted for incumbent party in the prior election and 0 in cases where the majority of diaspora voters supported the opposition.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emigrant Inclusion in Home Country Elections: Theory and Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Wellman

2020

Am Polit Sci Rev

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Since 1990, nearly 100 countries extended voting rights to citizens living abroad, including 32 in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the actual ability for emigrants to vote in subsequent elections varies widely. Whereas others view diaspora enfranchisement as a signal to emigrant and international audiences, I argue that incumbent parties expand or restrict emigrant voter access depending on party perceptions of political support abroad. I first leverage the multiple reversals over emigrant inclusion in South African elections since 1994 to illuminate how changing dynamics between an incumbent party and citizens abroad shape emigrant voter access. I further test my argument with an original dataset covering multiple dimensions of external voting in every African election where emigrants had voting rights from 1990 to 2015. I find a robust relationship between emigrant voter access and diaspora support for the incumbent party.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emigrant Inclusion in Home Country Elections: Theory and Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Wellman

2020

Am Polit Sci Rev

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“…To capture the first factor, the MPs' fear of electoral defeat, I use Parliamentary win-margin t-1 , which measures the win-margin in the last parliamentary election. Past win-margins have been used as a measure of electoral confidence in other studies, and, in the context of information scarce environments, where pre-election polls are either unavailable or unreliable, have been found to perform better than other measures (Eibl & Lynge 2017). MPs in Ghana will most certainly use all information available to them when they gauge their electoral prospects.…”

Section: Variables and Model: Regression Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

2022

JAE

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Journal of African Elections is an interdisciplinary biannual publication of research and writing in the human sciences, which seeks to promote a scholarly understanding of developments and change in Africa. Responsibility for opinions expressed and for the accuracy of facts published in papers, research notes, review articles and book reviews rests solely with the individual authors or reviewers. Contributions are referred to specialist readers for consideration, but the Editor is responsible for the final selection of the contents of the Journal.

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