Efficiency of health risk mitigation: complex assessment based on fuzzy sets theory and applied in planning activities aimed at ambient air protection

Abstract

When industrial objects emitting substantial masses of dust and gas mixtures are located within a settlement or close to its borders, it often results in poorer quality of the environment and damages to population health. Such a situation is typical for many cities in the country; primarily, for those that are included into "Pure air" Federal project, a part of the "Ecology" National project. Negative effects are produced by a set of various substances emitted from various industries. And it is quite often that great numbers of people are exposed to such emissions and as a result multiple and variable responses from their health are registered. Assessment of share contributions made by different emissions sources and each particular substance into aggregated negative responses from human health is a fundamental stage in assessing damages to health that occurred due to them; it is significant for working out an action plan aimed at hazardous impacts mitigation.Given that, we proposed an approach based on fuzzy sets theory as a relevant methodological basis for assessing efficiency of risk mitigation and damage to health when planning and implementing activities aimed at ambient air protection. Application of this methodology allows assessing conditions of multi-component negative impacts producing multiple negative effects including direct damage done to human health. And here key parameters are assessed not as per point values but as per interval ones that are characterized with their belonging to a range of scaled parameters. Our research goal was to suggest methodical approaches to assessing efficiency of risk mitigation and damage to health when planning and implementing activities aimed at ambient air protection; the approaches were based on fuzzy sets theory. Results obtained via hygienic (field or calculated examinations of ambient air quality in settlements under exposure and beyond it) and epidemiologic (controlled medical and biological) research are taken as initial data for fuzzy modeling of multiple parameters ratios within "damage to health -mitigation efficiency" system. Principles applied for research design take into account key postulates of exposure assessment, "dose -effect" relationship for an influencing substance, a concept of exposure risk acceptability, peculiarities related to body reactions under combined aerogenic burdens, and plans for ambient air protection activities (including complex ones).Comparing a list of substances that do actual damage to exposed population's health with a list of substances included into plans on aggregated emissions reduction allows assessing adequacy; determining to what extent damage to health is mitigated allows assessing whether activities aimed at ambient air protection are sufficient and effective.

Methodological Approaches to Optimizing Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Programs within the Framework of the Federal Clean Air Project (on the example of Nizhny Tagil)

“…Расчет рассеивания загрязняющих веществ выполнен с использованием данных томов ПДВ четырех предприятий, участвующих в 2 МР 2.1.6.0157-19 «Формирование программ наблюдения за качеством атмосферного воздуха и количественная оценка экспозиции для задач социально-гигиенического мониторинга». 3 МР 2.1.10.0156-19 «Оценка качества атмосферного воздуха и анализ риска здоровью населения в целях принятия обоснованных управленческих решений в сфере обеспечения качества атмосферного воздуха и санитарно-эпидемиологического благополучия населения». 4 Приказ Минприроды России от 29.11.2019 № 813 «Об утверждении правил проведения сводных расчетов загрязнения атмосферного воздуха, включая их актуализацию».…”

“…Введение. Реализация федерального проекта «Чистый воздух» предусматривает в качестве одного из ключевых социально значимых результатов максимальное сокращение аэрогенного риска для здоровья населения в результате достижения целевых значений показателей снижения совокупного объема выбросов загрязняющих веществ в атмосферный воздух (до 20 % к уровню 2017 года) и улучшения качества атмосферного воздуха до уровня, исключающего «очень высокое» и «высокое» загрязнение в городах -участниках федерального проекта [1][2][3][4]. Это условие предусматривает прежде всего сокращение объема выбросов в атмосферный воздух загрязняющих веществ, в наибольшей степени влияющих на состояние здоровья населения (заболеваемость и смертность) и определяющих уровень аэрогенного риска как для здоровья населения в целом, так и наиболее чувствительных его групп, к которым относятся дети и беременные.…”

“…Методические подходы к проведению этой части работ установлены Роспотребнадзором в методических рекомендациях 3 . Одним из базовых подходов к формированию первичных данных при расчете рисков для здоровья населения является использование результатов сводных расчетов приземных концентраций загрязняющих веществ, выполняемых в соответствии с правилами, утвержденными приказом 4 .…”

Uncertainties in risk analysis and modern approaches to their reduction

“…Many authors have noted that uncertainties can occur at any stage in risk analysis. They not only impede risk analysis but are also able to skew research results [1,5,6]. Uncertainties associated with exposure assessment have the greatest influence on validity of ultimate risk assessment [1].…”

“…Mathematical methods, in particular, regression models, cluster analysis, and fuzzy set theory, are actively employed in contemporary studies that concentrate on health risk assessment [5,[7][8][9]. For example, J.P. Fabisiak with colleagues [10] rely on land use regression (LUR) to describe distribution of black carbon and nitrogen dioxides, their major sources being diesel exhausts, point industrial sources, as well as residential wood burning.…”