Effects of using air temperature as a proxy for potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios of Great Lakes basin hydrology

Lofgren, Brent M.; Hunter, Timothy; Wilbarger, J.

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2011.09.006

Cited by 111 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Other studies such as Lofgren et al (2011), or the more recent Milly and Dunne (2016), further simplified Eq. (3) to:…”

Section: Methods Based On Radiation 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe

Maes¹,

Gentine²,

Verhoest³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Potential evaporation (Ep) is a crucial variable for hydrological forecast and in drought monitoring systems. However, multiple interpretations of Ep exist, and these reflect a diverse range of methods to calculateEp. As such, a comparison of the performance of these methods against field observations in different global ecosystems is badly needed. In this study, we used eddy-covariance measurements from 107 sites of the FLUXNET2015 database, covering 11 different biomes, to parameterize and compare the main Ep methods and 10 uncover their relative performance. For each site, we extracted the days for which ecosystems are unstressed based on both an energy balance approach and on a soil water content approach. The evaporation measurements during these days were used as reference to validate the different methods to estimate Ep. Our results indicate that a simple radiation-driven method calibrated per biome consistently performed best, with a mean correlation of 0.93, an unbiased RMSE of 0.56 mm day -1, and a bias of -0.02 mm day -1 against in situ measurements of unstressed 15 evaporation. A Priestley and Taylor method, calibrated per biome, performed just slightly worse, yet substantially and consistently better than more complex Penman, Penman-Monteith-based or temperature-based approaches.We show that the poor performance of Penman-Monteith based approaches relates largely to the fact that the unstressed stomatal conductance was assumed constant. Further analysis showed that the biome-specific parameters required for the simple radiation-driven methods are relatively constant per biome. This makes this 20 simple radiation-driven method calibrated per biome a robust method that can be incorporated into models for improving our understanding of the impact of global warming on future global water use and demand, drought severity and ecosystem productivity.

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“…Other studies such as Lofgren et al (2011), or the more recent Milly and Dunne (2016), further simplified Eq. (3) to:…”

Section: Methods Based On Radiation 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…CC BY 4.0 License. Menzel, 2008;Lofgren et al, 2011), or (iii) used the Penman-Monteith method as the benchmark to test different alternative Ep formulations that require less input data (e.g. Chen et al, 2005;Sentelhas et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe

Maes¹,

Gentine²,

Verhoest³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As discussed by Lofgren et al (2011), traditional hydrological models using this approach project an exaggerated evapotranspiration increase for future climate, and consequently runoff reduction, because of the absence of surface energy budget constraints in these models. Another important issue is that the AHPS does not account for the two-way exchange of energy and water between the Great Lakes basin and the overlying atmosphere, and therefore fails to capture important feedback processes occurring at the landand lake-atmosphere interfaces.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

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Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydrometeorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041-2070) and present (1971-1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.

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“…However, it is essential remarking that the overall driver of PET and temperature as well is net solar radiation, which is a portion of the extraterrestrial one. Furthermore, the correlation between PET and temperature is so much significant only at coarse time scales, such as the annual one, while its correlation with the solar radiation remains significant, at all temporal scales [40]. …”

Section: Which Meteorological Drivers Explain Mean Annual Pet Over Thmentioning

confidence: 97%

Parametric Modelling of Potential Evapotranspiration: A Global Survey

Tegos

Malamos

Efstratiadis

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:We present and validate a global parametric model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) with two parameters that are estimated through calibration, using as explanatory variables temperature and extraterrestrial radiation. The model is tested over the globe, taking advantage of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO CLIMWAT) database that provides monthly averaged values of meteorological inputs at 4300 locations worldwide. A preliminary analysis of these data allows for explaining the major drivers of PET over the globe and across seasons. The model calibration against the given Penman-Monteith values was carried out through an automatic optimization procedure. For the evaluation of the model, we present global maps of optimized model parameters and associated performance metrics, and also contrast its performance against the well-known Hargreaves-Samani method. Also, we use interpolated values of the optimized parameters to validate the predictive capacity of our model against monthly meteorological time series, at several stations worldwide. The results are very encouraging, since even with the use of abstract climatic information for model calibration and the use of interpolated parameters as local predictors, the model generally ensures reliable PET estimations. Exceptions are mainly attributed to irregular interactions between temperature and extraterrestrial radiation, as well as because the associated processes are influenced by additional drivers, e.g., relative humidity and wind speed. However, the analysis of the residuals shows that the model is consistent in terms of parameters estimation and model validation. The parameter maps allow for the direct use of the model wherever in the world, providing PET estimates in case of missing data, that can be further improved even with a short term acquisition of meteorological data.

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Effects of using air temperature as a proxy for potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios of Great Lakes basin hydrology

Cited by 111 publications

References 27 publications

Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe

Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Parametric Modelling of Potential Evapotranspiration: A Global Survey

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