Effects of Environmental Changes on the Occurrence of Oreomunnea mexicana (Juglandaceae) in a Biodiversity Hotspot Cloud Forest

Abstract

Abstract:The tropical montane cloud forests are recognized as one of the most biodiverse ecosystems. In spite of this, they are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world. This study integrates three ecological approaches generally studied separately: climate change scenery, ecological niche and population dynamics of Oreomunnea mexicana (an endangered and relict species), to understand how environmental change affects the population structure in the cloud forest that will allow its conservation. Potential distribution under future climatic scenarios of the species at national and regional levels was generated from the Maxent algorithm. Also, the current abundance, distribution and the ecological niche of the species were analyzed at the regional level. Changes in potential distribution under two climatic models suggest a habitat reduction from 36% to 55% nationally, and 2% to 9% at a regional level, for 2050 and 2070, respectively. The current distribution of the species is fragmented and consists of subpopulations that have spatial structures of aggregated populations and a size structure in reversed "J" form. The ecological niche of the species is highly specialized and sensitive to environmental changes. O. mexicana is a flagship species of biological and cultural importance to the region's inhabitants and could be fundamental to the conservation of tropical montane cloud forests.

Distribution Models of Timber Species for Forest Conservation and Restoration in the Andean-Amazonian Landscape, North of Peru

“…In this study, we established the current and potential distribution of species using occurrence data through a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model [14]. MaxEnt has been widely applied to studies of flora conservation [15], fauna [16,17], management of endangered species [18,19], conservation of endemic species [20], and invasive species control [21,22], as well as in forestry and agricultural zoning [12,23] [24] from local to global scales, allowing the development of "species distribution" maps and, finally, the estimation of a "suitability index" [25] for the Peruvian Amazon region. Though a few studies have been done over the Amazon region using MaxEnt models for evapotranspiration estimation [26], fire probability distribution [27], infrastructure expansion [24], and conservation of freshwater turtles [11], no such studies have been conducted for species distribution and its spatial modeling, which are the prime focuses of all conservation and restoration policies.…”

Different Criteria for Evaluation of the Conservation Status of Ceratozamia Miqueliana (Zamiaceae)

“…In this study, we therefore use species distribution modeling as a method by which to analyze the abiotic variables that influence the distribution of C. miqueliana . The use of species distribution models has undergone considerable development (e.g., Araújo et al., 2005; Araújo & Williams, 2000; Ortega-Andrade et al., 2016) and has had implications for conservation (Araújo et al., 2002; Krömer et al., 2013; Vergara-Rodríguez et al., 2017), research into evolutionary processes (Gómez et al., 2016; Pérez et al., 2014), potential species distribution (Armenta-Montero et al., 2015; Contreras-Medina et al., 2010) and, modeling with respect to climatic change (Alfonso-Corrado et al., 2017; Prieto-Torres et al., 2016). In this study, we model the potential distribution of C. miqueliana , understood as the area in which the abiotic and biotic conditions are favorable for this species, as an additional approach to learn about its distribution in order to complement the information regarding its conservation status (Soberón & Nakamura, 2009).…”

Mecanismos de respuesta al estrés abiótico: hacia una perspectiva de las especies forestales

“…Por ejemplo, Oreomunnea mexicana (Standl.) J. F. Leroy es una especie relicto (Palacios-Chávez y Rzendowski, 1993), catalogada como amenazada (González-Espinosa et al, 2011), cuya distribución potencial bajo distintos escenarios de cambio climático evidenció de 36 a 55 % de reducción de su hábitat, debido a que su nicho ecológico es altamente especializado y sensible a cambios ambientales (Alfonso-Corrado et al, 2017).…”