Effectiveness of hard and soft tsunami countermeasures on loss of life under different population scenarios

Takabatake, Tomoyuki; Esteban, Miguel; Nistor, Ioan; Shibayama, Tomoya; Nishizaki, Shinsaku

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101491

Cited by 27 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Among the papers studied, 39 did not specify any method of sensitivity analysis, whereas in 11 publications (Alam and Habib 2020 , Kunwar et al 2014 , Le et al 2013 , 2014 , 2015 , 2017 , Mostafizi et al 2017 , 2019a , b , Poulos et al 2018 ; Solís and Gazmuri 2017 ) some mentions of the analysis are given. In one paper, the authors present the analysis as “future work” (Makinoshima et al 2018 ), and in (Takabatake et al 2020a , b , c ) the “effects of change of behavior on mortality rate” are discussed, whereas in (Wang et al 2016 ) “model sensitivity to critical depth and model sensitivity to s and r ” is presented.…”

Section: Technical Properties Of Abm Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 39 of the papers, no explicit validation method was specified. A comparison with real-world data is presented in (Castro et al 2019 ; Katayama et al 2019 ; Sahal et al 2013 ; Takabatake 2020a , b ), whereas comparison with other models is less common (Alam and Habib 2020 ; Faucher et al 2020 ). The use of mobile phone data to calibrate the ABM outcomes (León et al 2021 ) and video analysis (Poulos et al 2018 ) or comparison with a shelter plan analysis (Usman et al 2017 ) are other validation methods applied.…”

Section: Technical Properties Of Abm Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation

et al. 2022

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This systematic review provides a comprehensive overview of tsunami evacuation models. The review covers scientific studies from the last decade (2012–2021) and is explicitly focused on models using an agent-based approach. The PRISMA methodology was used to analyze 171 selected papers, resulting in over 53 studies included in the detailed full-text analysis. This review is divided into two main parts: (1) a descriptive analysis of the presented models (focused on the modeling tools, validation, and software platform used, etc.), and (2) model analysis (e.g., model purpose, types of agents, input and output data, and modeled area). Special attention was given to the features of these models specifically associated with an agent-based approach. The results lead to the conclusion that the research domain of agent-based tsunami evacuation models is quite narrow and specialized, with a high degree of variability in the model attributes and properties. At the same time, the application of agent-specific methodologies, protocols, organizational paradigms, or standards is sparse. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05643-x.

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Section: Technical Properties Of Abm Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Technical Properties Of Abm Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation

et al. 2022

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“…28 ABM can simulate the actions and interactions of autonomous agents in a common environment to understand the behavior of a system and observe or recreate the emergence of complex phenomena. 32 This computational modeling approach has been applied to various hazards such as volcanic eruptions, 22,33 tsunamis, 21,34 earthquakes, 35,36 or hurricanes 37,38 and at different scales of analysis, from regional scale to building scale. The models often focus on a single issue such as risk management, evacuation simulation, or hazard event simulation.…”

Section: Volcanic Evacuation Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling staged and simultaneous evacuation during a volcanic crisis of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (France)

Gillet,

Daudé,

Saval

et al. 2023

SIMULATION

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The seismic and fumarollic activity of La Soufrière de Gaudeloupe increased in 1992. Continuing unrest led the Observatoire volocanologique et sismologique of Guadeloupe (OVSG-IPGP) to recommend in July 1999 to the authorities that the volcano alert be set to “Vigilance” (yellow). The OVSG-IPGP has been particularly vigilant and reinforced its monitoring following another significant increase of unrest in 2017 that culminated in magnitude 4.1 felt earthquake and a probable failed phreatic eruption. Volcanic activity remains difficult to forecast precisely, so the only way to stay safe, in case of an impending eruption, is to move away from the threatened area. This can be a major problem for the authorities and the population. In the French overseas departments, despite the presence of several volcanoes, there is limited experience in managing volcanic emergencies, especially in areas with a high population density and strategic assets, such as the Basse-Terre region of Guadeloupe. Therefore, it is crucial to devise and assess an emergency management strategy to identify potential problems and dangers that may arise during a mass evacuation. Crisis exercises can be planned to prepare the authorities and the population, but they are rarely carried out due to the human and resource costs involved. A series of evacuation scenarios are evaluated through simulations. The scenarios model staged and simultaneous evacuations with different speeds of individual response times. The aim of this research is to evaluate the two main evacuation strategies defined in the current volcano emergency response plan for La Soufrière of Guadeloupe, revised in 2018 by the authorities. This paper describes a calibrated agent-based model of mass evacuation and its exploration focusing on the potential staged evacuations of the southern Basse-Terre area. The overall objectives of this research are to: (1) test the evacuation strategy of the current emergency plan, and (2) provide relevant information to stakeholders. The results of these simulations suggest that there is no significant difference between the two evacuation strategies. It is estimated that 95% of the population will be evacuated within 20 h with a simultaneous or a staged evacuation. Whatever the scenario, the simulation results show high levels of road congestion. However, the staged evacuation will significantly reduce the number of vehicles on the network during the peak time of the evacuation and therefore reduce dangerous situations and the potential for adding crises within a volcanic crisis.

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“…While carrying out evacuation drills is helpful to enable participants to take appropriate responses during an actual tsunami event, it is not realistic for all the residents to participate in such drills. Furthermore, as some coastal areas are renowned sightseeing spots, there might be many visitors who do not know the area well and struggle to evacuate in the event of a tsunami (Takabatake et al, 2017;2020). Thus, the authors developed a smartphone application (App) that supports swift tsunami evacuation, which can be especially helpful for those who do not have sufficient knowledge about evacuation routes and refuge places.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of Smartphone Application to Support Tsunami Evacuation

Han,

Takabatake,

Esteban

et al. 2023

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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Kamakura is a historical city situated along the Japanese coastline, which is at risk of being devastated by a tsunami due to its relatively flat topography and proximity to the Sagami and Nankai Troughs. Evacuation would play an important role to reduce the potential loss of lives resulting from a tsunami event. While carrying out evacuation drills is helpful to enable participants to take appropriate responses during an actual tsunami event, it is not realistic for all the residents to participate in such drills. Furthermore, as some coastal areas are renowned sightseeing spots, there might be many visitors who do not know the area well and struggle to evacuate in the event of a tsunami (Takabatake et al., 2017; 2020). Thus, the authors developed a smartphone application (App) that supports swift tsunami evacuation, which can be especially helpful for those who do not have sufficient knowledge about evacuation routes and refuge places. The present study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of the developed app, and to clarify its impact on people’s decision making with regards to evacuation behavior.

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Effectiveness of hard and soft tsunami countermeasures on loss of life under different population scenarios

Cited by 27 publications

References 39 publications

Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation

Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation

Modeling staged and simultaneous evacuation during a volcanic crisis of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (France)

Development of Smartphone Application to Support Tsunami Evacuation

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