Effect of El Niño on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes, Revisited

Abstract

Changes in the frequency of U.S. landfalling hurricanes with respect to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle are assessed. Ninety-eight years (1900-97) of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are classified, using sea surface temperature anomaly data from the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as occurring during an El Nino (anomalously warm tropical Pacific waters), La Nina (anomalously cold tropical Pacific waters), or neither (neutral). The mean and variance of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are determined for each ENSO phase. Each grouping is then tested for Poisson distribution using a chi-squared test. Resampling using a "bootstrap" technique is then used to determine the 5% and 95% confidence limits of the results. Last, the frequency of major U.S. landfalling hurricanes (sus-tained winds of 96 kt or more) with respect to ENSO phase is assessed empirically. The results indicated that El Nino events show a reduction in the probability of a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while La Nina shows an increase in the chance of a U.S. hurricane strike. Quantitatively, the probability of two or more landfalling U.S. hurricanes during an El Nino is 28%, of two or more landfalls during neutral conditions is 48%, and of two or more landfalls during La Nina is 66%. The frequencies of landfalling major hurricanes show similar results. The probability of one or more major hurricane landfall during El Nino is 23% but is 58% during neutral conditions and 63% during La Nina.

Forecasting US insured hurricane losses

“…This conclusion is reasonable given that statistical relationships between US hurricane activity and climate are well established (Bove et al, 1998;Saunders et al, 2000;Elsner et al, 2000aElsner et al, , b, 2001Elsner, 2003;Saunders and Lea, 2005). More importantly for the present work, Jagger et al (2001) and Jagger and Elsner (2006) modeled the wind speeds of hurricanes at or near landfall and showed that the exceedance probabilities (e.g., wind speeds in excess of 100 knots) vary appreciably with the phase of the ENSO, the NAO, and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs).…”

“…Studies focusing on climate factors that influence hurricane frequency regionally (Lehmiller et al, 1997;Bove et al, 1998;Maloney and Hartmann, 2000;Elsner et al, 2000a;Murnane et al, 2000;Saunders et al, 2000;Jagger et al, 2001;Larson et al, 2005) are more recent. Insights into climate conditions that affect regional hurricane activity are used to help predict landfall activity (Lehmiller et al, 1997;Elsner andJagger, 2004, 2006;Saunders and Lea, 2005).…”

A Climatology of Northwest Missouri Snowfall Events: Long-Term Trends and Interannual Variability

“…This ENSO definition has been used in many published studies (e.g., Bove et al, 1998;Lupo and Johnston, 2000;Smith and O'Brien, 2001;Weidenmann et al, 2002), and is similar to other definitions used by other investigators (e.g., Pielke and Landsea, 1999).…”

“…In recent decades, climatic fluctuations due to natural variability inherent in the earthatmosphere system have been examined extensively (e.g., Wallace and Gutzler, 1981;Blackmon et al, 1984;Gray, 1984Gray, , 1998Mo and Livezey, 1986;Wunsch, 1992Wunsch, , 1999Hurrell, 1995Hurrell, , 1996IPCC, 1996;Schmitz, 1996;O'Brien et al, 1996;Bove et al, 1998). In particular, interannual variability in Midwestern climates has been linked to coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena such as the El Nin o and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g., Kung and Chern, 1995;Changnon et al, 1999), and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) (or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation -PDO) (e.g., Gershunov and Barnett, 1998).…”

“X” Marks the spot: Florida is the 2004 hurricane bull's‐eye

“…In general, years with a La Nina (cold Pacific) dominant pattern are more likely to have an increased number of hurricanes, while the counter regime, El Nino, is associated with a decreased number of Atlantic hurricanes [Bove et aL, 1998;Eisner and Bossak, 2004].…”