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Predictive climate distributions of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are estimated from observational records over the period 1851-2000. The approach is Bayesian, combining the reliable records of hurricane activity during the twentieth century with the less precise accounts of activity during the nineteenth century to produce a best estimate of the posterior distribution on the annual rates. The methodology provides a predictive distribution of future activity that serves as a climatological benchmark. Results are presented for the entire coast as well as for the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the East Coast. Statistics on the observed annual counts of U.S. hurricanes, both for the entire coast and by region, are similar within each of the three consecutive 50-yr periods beginning in 1851. However, evidence indicates that the records during the nineteenth century are less precise. Bayesian theory provides a rational approach for defining hurricane climate that uses all available information and that makes no assumption about whether the 150-yr record of hurricanes has been adequately or uniformly monitored. The analysis shows that the number of major hurricanes expected to reach the U.S. coast over the next 30 yr is 18 and the number of hurricanes expected to hit Florida is 20.

Objectives We analyzed relationships of spatial access to syringe exchange programs (SEPs) and pharmacies selling over-the-counter (“OTC”) syringes in New York City health districts to local injectors’ harm reduction practices. Methods Each year of the study period (1995–2006), we measured the percent of each district’s (N=42) surface area within one mile of an SEP or OTC pharmacy. We applied hierarchical generalized linear models to investigate relationships between these exposures and the odds that local injectors (N=4003) used a sterile syringe during >75% of injections in the past six months. Findings A one-unit increase in the natural log of the percent of a district’s surface area within a mile of an SEP in 1995 was associated with a 26% increase in the odds of injecting with a sterile syringe >75% of the time; a one-unit increase in this exposure over time increases these odds 23%. A one-unit increase in the natural log of OTC pharmacy access improved these odds 15%. Discussion Greater spatial access to SEPs and OTC pharmacies improves injectors’ capacity to engage in harm reduction practices that reduce HIV and hepatitis C transmission.

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Pharmacies that sell over-the-counter (OTC) syringes are a major source of sterile syringes for injection drug users in cities and states where such sales are legal. In these cities and states, however, black injectors are markedly less likely to acquire syringes from pharmacies than white injectors. The present analysis documents spatial and temporal trends in OTC pharmacy access in New York City health districts over time (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006) and investigates whether these trends are related to district racial/ ethnic composition and to local need for OTC pharmacies. For each year of the study period, we used kernel density estimation methods to characterize spatial access to OTC pharmacies within each health district. Higher values on this measure indicate better access to these pharmacies. "Need" was operationalized using two different measures: the number of newly diagnosed injection-related AIDS cases per 10,000 residents (averaged across 1999-2001), and the number of drug-related hospital discharges per 10,000 residents (averaged across 1999-2001). District sociodemographic characteristics were assessed using 2000 US decennial census data. We used hierarchical linear models (HLM) for descriptive and inferential analyses and investigated whether the relationship between need and temporal trajectories in the Expanded Syringe Access Demonstration Program access varied by district racial/ethnic composition, controlling for district poverty rates. HLM analyses indicate that the mean spatial access to OTC pharmacies across New York City health districts was 12.71 in 2001 and increased linearly by 1.32 units annually thereafter. Temporal trajectories in spatial access to OTC pharmacies depended on both need and racial/ethnic composition. Within high-need districts, OTC pharmacy access was twice as high in 2001 and increased three times faster annually, in districts with higher proportions of non-Hispanic white residents than in districts with low proportions of these residents. In low-need districts, "whiter" districts had substantially greater baseline access to OTC pharmacies than districts with low proportions of non-Hispanic white residents. Access remained stable thereafter in low-need districts, regardless of racial/ethnic composition. Conclusions were consistent across both measures of "need" and persisted after controlling for local poverty rates. In both high-and low-need districts, spatial access to OTC pharmacies was greater in "Whiter" districts in 2001; in high-need 929districts, access also increased more rapidly over time in "whiter" districts. Ensuring equitable spatial access to OTC pharmacies may reduce injection-related HIV transmission overall and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in HIV incidence among injectors.

Drug-related law enforcement activities may undermine the protective effects of syringe exchange programs (SEPs) on local injectors’ risk of injection-related infections. We explored the spatial overlap of drug-related arrest rates and access to SEPs over time (1995-2006) in New York City health districts, and used multilevel models to investigate the relationship of these two district-level exposures to the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe. Districts with better SEP access had higher arrest rates, and arrest rates undermined SEPs’ protective relationship with unsterile injecting. Drug-related enforcement strategies targeting drug users should be de-emphasized in areas surrounding SEPs.

The concept of the "risk environment" -defined as the "space … [where] factors exogenous to the individual interact to increase the chances of HIV transmission" -draws together the disciplines of public health and geography. Researchers have increasingly turned to geographic methods to quantify dimensions of the risk environment that are both structural and spatial (e.g., local poverty rates). The scientific power of the intersection between public health and geography, however, has yet to be fully mined. In particular, research on the risk environment has rarely applied geographic methods to create neighbourhood-based measures of syringe exchange programs (SEPs) or of drug-related law enforcement activities, despite the fact that these interventions are widely conceptualized as structural and spatial in nature and are two of the most well-established dimensions of the risk environment. To strengthen research on the risk environment, this paper presents a way of using geographic methods to create neighbourhood-based measures of (1) access to SEP sites and (2) exposure to drug-related arrests, and then applies these methods to one setting (New York City). NYC-based results identified substantial cross-neighbourhood variation in SEP site access and in exposure to drug-related arrest rates (even within the subset of neighbourhoods nominally experiencing the same drug-related police strategy). These geographic measures -grounded as they are in conceptualizations of SEPs and drug-related law enforcement strategies -can help develop new arenas of inquiry regarding the impact of these two dimensions of the risk environment on injectors' health, including exploring whether and how neighbourhood-level access to SEP sites and exposure to drug-related arrests shape a range of outcomes among local injectors.

Despite the 2010 repeal of the ban on spending federal monies to fund syringe exchange programs (SEPs) in the USA, these interventions-and specifically SEP site locations-remain controversial. To further inform discussions about the location of SEP sites, this longitudinal multilevel study investigates the relationship between spatial access to sterile syringes distributed by SEPs in New York City (NYC) United Hospital Fund (UHF) districts and injecting with an unsterile syringe among injectors over time (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006). Annual measures of spatial access to syringes in each UHF district (N = 42) were created using data on SEP site locations and site-specific syringe distribution data. Individual-level data on unsterile injecting among injectors (N = 4,067) living in these districts, and on individual-level covariates, were drawn from the Risk Factors study, an ongoing cross-sectional study of NYC drug users. We used multilevel models to explore the relationship of district-level access to syringes to the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe in 975% of injection events in the past 6 months, and to test whether this relationship varied by district-level arrest rates (per 1,000 residents) for drug and drug paraphernalia possession. The relationship between district-level access to syringes and the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe depended on district-level arrest rates. In districts with low baseline arrest rates, better syringe access was associated with a decline in the odds of frequently injecting with an unsterile syringe (AOR, 0.95). In districts with no baseline syringe access, higher arrest rates were associated with increased odds of frequently injecting with an unsterile syringe (AOR, 1.02) When both interventions were present, arrest rates eroded the protective effects of spatial access to syringes. Spatial access to syringes in small geographic areas appears to reduce the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe among local injectors, and arrest rates elevate these odds. Policies and practices that curtail syringe flow in geographic areas (e.g., restrictions on SEP locations or syringe distribution) or that make it difficult for injectors to use the sterile syringes they have acquired may damage local injectors' efforts to reduce HIV transmission and other injection-related harms.