Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula

Appendini, Christian M.; Meza‐Padilla, Rafael; Abud-Russell, Said; Proust, Sébastien; Barrios, Roberto E.; Secaira‐Fajardo, Fernando

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02569-5

Cited by 17 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Although it is hypothesized that storm frequency will increase overall in the Atlantic basin as a result of climate change [100][101][102], it is not clear how the interaction between climate variability and change will specifically affect regional storm landings' location, frequency, and strength across the Caribbean basin and the YP. These projections are needed to determine the regional, annual, and decadal impact on the hydrological cycle, particularly in the case of precipitation (e.g., [103]).…”

Section: Historical and Future Hurricane Frequency Intensity And Landfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These observed clusters show regions with the lowest precipitation values in the northern YP and the highest values in the southwest and southeast [55,104]. Preliminary climate modeling results at the regional scale indicate that the driest of the semi-arid climates will extend along the northern YP where a warmer climate might occur along the western and central sections of the peninsula [102]. How these local climates and associated precipitation will change as temperature increases at the regional scale by 2050 is unknown, especially as climate is modified by pulsing TCs.…”

Section: Precipitation and River Discharge Spatiotemporal Patterns Induced By Tc Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, the explicit simulation of TCs in climate models is still limited due to validation and the implementation and development of robust downscaling techniques [100,101,108]. The most recent downscaling estimates indicate that the YP will experience more extreme climatic events, including increasing TC frequency and intensification [102].…”

Section: Precipitation and River Discharge Spatiotemporal Patterns Induced By Tc Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, key ecosystems services, such as artisanal and industrial fisheries, represent a critical economic source providing a combined value (i.e., Campeche, Yucatan, Quintana Roo) ranging from US $130-180 million in the period from 2006-2014 [145,146]; these fisheries include shrimp [147], red grouper [45,148], sea cucumber [46], octopus [149,150], and lobster [151,152]. If TC frequency and strength increases in the next decades as forecasted by climate models and recent global warming trends [25,102], then major changes in the food web structure/dynamics and associated ecosystem services should be expected. Further systematic work is needed to directly measure nutrient loading rates controlled by groundwater discharge in the long term along the YP coastline, especially before and after storm passage (e.g., [9,21]).…”

Section: Tc Impacts On Terrestrial Vegetation and Chl-a Concentration In Coastal Watersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical Cyclone Landfall Frequency and Large-Scale Environmental Impacts along Karstic Coastal Regions (Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico)

et al. 2020

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are natural systems that develop over ocean basins and are key components of the atmospheric activity during the warm season. However, there are still knowledge gaps about the combined positive and negative TC impacts on the structure and function of coastal socio-ecosystems. Using remote sensing tools, we analyzed the frequency, trajectory, and intensity of 1894 TCs from 1851–2019 to identify vulnerable “hotspots” across the Yucatan Peninsula (YP), Mexico. A total of 151 events hit the YP, with 96% of landings on the eastern coast. We focused on three major hurricanes (Emily and Wilma, 2005; Dean, 2007) and one tropical storm (Stan, 2005) to determine the impacts on cumulative precipitation, vegetation change, and coastal phytoplankton (Chl-a) distribution across the YP. Despite a short inland incursion, Wilma’s environmental damage was coupled to strong winds (157–241 km/h), slow motion (4–9 km/h), and heavy precipitation (up to 770 mm). Because of an extensive footprint, Wilma caused more vegetation damage (29%) than Dean (20%), Emily (7%), and Stan (2%). All TCs caused a Chl-a increase associated to submarine discharge and upwelling off the peninsula coastlines. Disaster risk along the coast underscores negative economic impacts and positive ecological benefits at the regional scale.

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Section: Historical and Future Hurricane Frequency Intensity And Landfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Precipitation and River Discharge Spatiotemporal Patterns Induced By Tc Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Precipitation and River Discharge Spatiotemporal Patterns Induced By Tc Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tc Impacts On Terrestrial Vegetation and Chl-a Concentration In Coastal Watersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical Cyclone Landfall Frequency and Large-Scale Environmental Impacts along Karstic Coastal Regions (Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico)

et al. 2020

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“…Of particular interest in the northern Yucatan Peninsula are the 'Norte' events due to their higher yearly occurrence (~22 events/year) [2] with respect to less frequent tropical cyclones (0.16 events/year) [8]. Under scenarios of climate change, the number of high-intensity events for the former is likely to decrease, while mild events become more frequent [2]; for the latter, the intensity of hurricanes reaching the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to increase by the end of this century [9]. Recent projections of global mean sea-level rise for the end of the century, incorporating Antarctic ice sheet dynamics, indicate that sea level may rise 70-100 cm under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 100-180 cm under RCP 8.5, and could even exceed 2 m in far-tail scenarios [10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

Rey

Martínez-Amador

Salles

et al. 2020

JMSE

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This study applies three different methods to assess the flood risk and damage from the strongest high-pressure cold front (locally known as ‘Norte’) event in terms of the residual tide from 30 years (1979–2008) of data for Progreso, Yucatan. The most important difference between the three methods is the estimation of flood vulnerability for Progreso. The first method, proposed by Mexico’s National Center for the Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED) and used by the Mexican government is based mostly on economic asset (household goods) values and flood impacts. The second (CENAPREDv2) and third (FRI) methods are proposals for assessing risk that include 17 socioeconomic indicators. The former includes economic asset values, as is the case for CENAPRED, while the latter does not. The main results of this study show that the modeled ‘Norte’ event flooded 25% of Progreso’s city blocks, with an estimated economic flood risk of $USD 16,266 (CENAPRED) and $USD 223,779 (CENAPREDv2), and flood damage of $USD 48,848 and $USD 671,918, respectively. When calculating flood risk (FRI) and flood damage (FRI_FD) without monetary terms, the risk categories along the back-barrier behind Progreso varied spatially from ‘very low’ to ‘high’, while areas along the coastal side presented a ‘low’ and ‘very low’ risk. These categories increased for the flood damage because the exceedance probability of the flood was not considered as it was for flood risk in the three methodologies. Therefore, flood damage provides the losses caused by a given flood event without considering how probable that loss may be. In conclusion, this study proposes that the selection of the applied method depends on the main objectives and specific interests when assessing flood risk. For instance, if economic damage is the main concern, then the CENAPRED method should be used as it identifies where the larger economic impacts could occur; when a socioeconomic approach is needed then the FRI should be applied, but if both economic damage and socioeconomic aspects are needed, the CENAPREDv2 is recommended. Besides considering economic aspects, the FRI method also includes social variables that can help to map the most vulnerable population in terms of mobility, education, communication access and others. Therefore, the proposed FRI method is very relevant for disaster risk managers and other stakeholders interested in disaster risk reduction.

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On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

et al. 2020

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Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula

Cited by 17 publications

References 44 publications

Tropical Cyclone Landfall Frequency and Large-Scale Environmental Impacts along Karstic Coastal Regions (Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico)

Tropical Cyclone Landfall Frequency and Large-Scale Environmental Impacts along Karstic Coastal Regions (Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico)

Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

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