On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

Ruíz-Salcines, Pablo; Appendini, Christian M.; Salles, Paulo; Rey, Wilmer; Vigh, Jonathan L.

doi:10.1007/s11069-020-04318-9

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…Another geospatial tool often used for assessing coastal floods is the Geographic Information System (GIS) models. However, the use of hydrodynamic models is preferable to the GIS models for modeling coastal floods (Seenath et al, 2016;Ruiz-Salcines et al, 2021). The latter is primarily based on topography, and it does not take into account the physics of the fluid dynamics (e.g., bottom friction, fluid flow direction, structural barriers).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of synthetic or hypothetical datasets to do flood hazard assessments depends on the objective of the study. As such, synthetic events provide a robust dataset for statistical analysis to characterize present and future climate trends, whereas hypothetical events allow assessing the inundation threat, which is very useful for evacuation plans from a conservative perspective (Rey et al, 2019a), and also for estimating the near-worst-case flood scenario, including climate change (Ruiz-Salcines et al, 2021). For coastal environments with steep slopes, the contribution of waves may be larger or equal than SS to flooding (Stockdon et al, 2007;Chen et al, 2017) while in wide and shallow continental shelf with a mild slope (e.g., continental shelf for Yucatan in the Gulf of Mexico) this behavior is inverted (Rey et al, 2020).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As such, the synthetic database limits the determination of the worst-case flood scenario in case of major hurricanes striking the study area. Therefore, we additionally used hypothetical events (to differentiate from synthetic events), which have straight-line trajectories, considering different possible angles of approach to a given site, and different combinations of storm sizes, and forward speeds (Ruiz-Salcines et al, 2021). The hypothetical events we modeled considered category V hurricanes approaching the archipelago of SPSC.…”

Section: Tropical Cyclone Datasets Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As such, a large number of synthetic TC were generated over the Caribbean Sea, to use those passing 250 km from the middle point between the San Andres and Providencia islands, and used to force a hydrodynamic model to determine hurricane SS and their associated flood in the archipelago. Additionally, given the scarcity of major hurricanes in the synthetic hurricane dataset, we created hypothetical category V hurricane events for each island to assess the flood worst-case scenario (Zachry et al, 2015;Rey et al, 2019a;Ruiz-Salcines et al, 2021). Considering the above, this study aims to assess the inundation threat from TC for the archipelago of SPSC by means of a hydrodynamic model, which was forced with synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical hurricanes, the former to determine the probability for different hurricane SS levels and the latter to provide hurricane SS flood worst-case scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia

et al. 2021

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Despite the low occurrence of tropical cyclones at the archipelago of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina (Colombia), Hurricane Iota in 2020 made evident the area vulnerability to tropical cyclones as major hazards by obliterating 56.4 % of housing, partially destroying the remaining houses in Providencia. We investigated the hurricane storm surge inundation in the archipelago by forcing hydrodynamic models with synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical hurricanes. The storm surge from synthetic events allowed identifying the strongest surges using the probability distribution, enabling the generation of hurricane storm surge flood maps for 100 and 500 year return periods. This analysis suggested that the east of San Andres and Providencia are the more likely areas to be flooded from hurricanes storm surges. The hypothetical events were used to force the hydrodynamic model to create worst-case flood scenario maps, useful for contingency and development planning. Additionally, Hurricane Iota flood levels were calculated using 2D and 1D models. The 2D model included storm surge (SS), SS with astronomical tides (AT), and SS with AT and wave setup (WS), resulting in a total flooded area (percentage related to Providencia’s total area) of 67.05 ha (3.25 %), 65.23 ha (3.16 %), and 76.68 ha (3.68%), respectively. While Hurricane Iota occurred during low tide, the WS contributed 14.93 % (11.45 ha) of the total flooded area in Providencia. The 1D approximation showed that during the storm peak in the eastern of the island, the contribution of AT, SS, and wave runup to the maximum sea water level was −3.01%, 46.36%, and 56.55 %, respectively. This finding provides evidence of the water level underestimation in insular environments when modeling SS without wave contributions. The maximum SS derived from Iota was 1.25 m at the east of Providencia, which according to this study has an associated return period of 3,234 years. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to other coastal zones and may include the effect of climate change on hurricane storm surges and sea-level rise. Results from this study are useful for emergency managers, government, coastal communities, and policymakers as civil protection measures.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tropical Cyclone Datasets Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia

et al. 2021

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“…Other cases are the studies carried out by Rey et al [56] and Ruiz-Salcines et al [57], where the effects of TCs were modeled as a direct function of the variables representing each phenomenon.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin and Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Identification of Extreme Events

Sánchez-Rivera¹,

Martínez²,

Mendoza³

et al. 2021

IJDNE

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Tropical cyclones impact continental and island lands annually, so attention to the adverse effects of associated winds and rains is focused on damage to human settlements, growing areas, infrastructure, loss of human life, and ecosystems. Defining the concept of extreme events is complex since it depends on the focus with which it is approached. The study aimed to provide a long-term and large-scale Serie (168 years) concerning cyclonic activity and characterization of extreme cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin, considering as a reference the World Meteorological definition Organization. The trend of extreme events in the 1851-2019 period was calculated from the records of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship and the statistical method "Exceeding a relative threshold," from the variables: "maximum speed of sustained winds" and "minimum atmospheric pressure." The thresholds considered were a) 10 and 90; b) 1 and 99; and c) extraordinary maximum threshold of 0.1 and 99.9 (percentiles). The cyclone trajectories were classified based on a) did not landfall; b) They impacted continental and insular lands; c) They impacted Mexico; and d) They impacted the Yucatan Peninsula. The results showed that of the total of 2,220 events registered, 59% (n=1,302) touched land. Considering the laxest thresholds (10 and 90 percentiles), the number of extreme events identified for the North Atlantic was 5.95% (n=132), while for the Yucatan Peninsula, it was 0.72% (n=16). The findings do not show a significant trend of increasing cyclone numbers. As for intensity (magnitude), a slight increase in hurricanes in categories H4 and H5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale has been observed in the last two decades.

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An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones

Camargo,

Murakami,

Bloemendaal

et al. 2023

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review

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On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

Cited by 7 publications

References 83 publications

Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia

Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia

Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin and Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Identification of Extreme Events

An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones

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