Effect of climate change on wind waves generated by anticyclonic cold front intrusions in the Gulf of Mexico

Appendini, Christian M.; Hernández-Lasheras, Jaime; Meza‐Padilla, Rafael; Kurczyn, J. A.

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4108-4

Cited by 37 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The extreme analysis was performed based on sea surface water level time series extracted from the computational domain from a point located 2 km offshore (5 m depth), where the Progreso tide gauge is situated (with only six years of records, January 1, 1979-December 31,1984). Based on tidal predictions [44] the Norte reached the Yucatan Peninsula near low tide and corresponds to a Type IV Norte as defined by [2], which are the second most energetic Norte event when considering wave power. The return period associated with the maximum water levels at Progreso was of only three years when including astronomical tides.…”

Section: Flooding Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The geographical position and topographical characteristics of the northern Yucatan Peninsula expose the coastal zone to flood threats induced by both tropical cyclones [1] and Central American cold surges, locally called 'Nortes' [2,3]. A 'Norte' event is defined as a cold anticyclonic air mass that originates poleward of Mexico and penetrates equatorward to at least 20 • N [4][5][6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flood threats increase during extreme events as a result of the wide and shallow Yucatan continental shelf, amplifying storm surge and hence augmenting the physical vulnerability of this region. Of particular interest in the northern Yucatan Peninsula are the 'Norte' events due to their higher yearly occurrence (~22 events/year) [2] with respect to less frequent tropical cyclones (0.16 events/year) [8]. Under scenarios of climate change, the number of high-intensity events for the former is likely to decrease, while mild events become more frequent [2]; for the latter, the intensity of hurricanes reaching the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to increase by the end of this century [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of particular interest in the northern Yucatan Peninsula are the 'Norte' events due to their higher yearly occurrence (~22 events/year) [2] with respect to less frequent tropical cyclones (0.16 events/year) [8]. Under scenarios of climate change, the number of high-intensity events for the former is likely to decrease, while mild events become more frequent [2]; for the latter, the intensity of hurricanes reaching the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to increase by the end of this century [9]. Recent projections of global mean sea-level rise for the end of the century, incorporating Antarctic ice sheet dynamics, indicate that sea level may rise 70-100 cm under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 100-180 cm under RCP 8.5, and could even exceed 2 m in far-tail scenarios [10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

Rey

Martínez-Amador

Salles

et al. 2020

JMSE

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This study applies three different methods to assess the flood risk and damage from the strongest high-pressure cold front (locally known as ‘Norte’) event in terms of the residual tide from 30 years (1979–2008) of data for Progreso, Yucatan. The most important difference between the three methods is the estimation of flood vulnerability for Progreso. The first method, proposed by Mexico’s National Center for the Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED) and used by the Mexican government is based mostly on economic asset (household goods) values and flood impacts. The second (CENAPREDv2) and third (FRI) methods are proposals for assessing risk that include 17 socioeconomic indicators. The former includes economic asset values, as is the case for CENAPRED, while the latter does not. The main results of this study show that the modeled ‘Norte’ event flooded 25% of Progreso’s city blocks, with an estimated economic flood risk of $USD 16,266 (CENAPRED) and $USD 223,779 (CENAPREDv2), and flood damage of $USD 48,848 and $USD 671,918, respectively. When calculating flood risk (FRI) and flood damage (FRI_FD) without monetary terms, the risk categories along the back-barrier behind Progreso varied spatially from ‘very low’ to ‘high’, while areas along the coastal side presented a ‘low’ and ‘very low’ risk. These categories increased for the flood damage because the exceedance probability of the flood was not considered as it was for flood risk in the three methodologies. Therefore, flood damage provides the losses caused by a given flood event without considering how probable that loss may be. In conclusion, this study proposes that the selection of the applied method depends on the main objectives and specific interests when assessing flood risk. For instance, if economic damage is the main concern, then the CENAPRED method should be used as it identifies where the larger economic impacts could occur; when a socioeconomic approach is needed then the FRI should be applied, but if both economic damage and socioeconomic aspects are needed, the CENAPREDv2 is recommended. Besides considering economic aspects, the FRI method also includes social variables that can help to map the most vulnerable population in terms of mobility, education, communication access and others. Therefore, the proposed FRI method is very relevant for disaster risk managers and other stakeholders interested in disaster risk reduction.

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Section: Flooding Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

Rey

Martínez-Amador

Salles

et al. 2020

JMSE

Self Cite

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“…In addition, high-resolution topography (1 m spatial resolution) from a 2011 lidar survey of the entire town of Progreso was used. After a calibration process comparing model results with sea-level measurements during three CACS events (not shown) in Progreso, the bottom friction was defined using a constant Manning coefficient of 0.02, which, according to Arcement and Schneider (1989), corresponds to the average mean grain size (d 50 ) of the Yucatán sand beaches reported by Mendoza et al (2013). For the horizontal eddy viscosity (Smagorinsky formulation) a constant coefficient of 0.28 was applied.…”

Section: Hydrodynamic Model Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of coastal flooding and associated hydrodynamic processes on the south-eastern coast of Mexico, during Central American cold surge events

Rey

Salles

Mendoza

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coastal flooding in the northern Yucatán Peninsula is mainly associated with storm surge events triggered by high-pressure cold front systems. This study evaluates the hydrodynamic processes of the Chelem lagoon, Mexico and the flooding threat from cold fronts for the neighbouring town of Progreso. A 30-year water-level hindcast (excluding wave set-up) was performed because of the lack of long-term tide gauge records. In order to assess the relative contribution from wave set-up and residual and astronomical tides to total flooding, the two worst storm scenarios in terms of maximum residual tide (Event A) and maximum water level (Event B) were simulated. Numerical results suggest that during Event A the wave set-up contribution reaches 0.35 at the coast and 0.17 m inside the lagoon, and these values are smaller for Event B (0.30 and 0.14 m, respectively). Results of the effect of the tidal phase on wave set-up and residual sea level show that (i) the wave set-up contribution increases during ebb tide and decreases during flood tide at the Chelem inlet, (ii) the residual tide is larger (smaller) near low (high) or receding (rising) tide, and (iii) maximum flooding occurs when the storm peak coincides with rising or high tide. The numerical results confirm the important role of wave set-up on the assessment of coastal flooding in micro-tidal coastal environments.

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Oceanic and atmospheric impact of central American cold surges (Nortes) in the Gulf of Mexico

Kurczyn

Appendini

Beier

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Central American cold surge outbreaks, known as Nortes, are standard features of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) climate, having significant oceanic and atmospheric impacts over the region that are essential for the marine ecosystem. Fifteen years of analysis of weather reports showed that Nortes occur within a 9 months window (September to May), with a total number of 24 ± 5 episodes per season. On average, there were 2.5 ± 1 events per month, lasting between 1 and 3 days with a maximum duration of 13 consecutive days. A Principal Component Analysis of 15 years of in situ observations identified the air temperature (41.6% of the explained variance) and the wave height (36.3%) as the two main drivers of these events impacts. Cluster Analysis to these same data categorized the Nortes into three types: Moderate, Strong, and Severe, based on the environmental impact caused in the GoM. These events tend to transit between categories as they lose strength while travelling to southern latitudes. Severe events are more frequent in the northwestern coast, occurring from January to March, whereas moderate events are more common in the middle of the GoM during September-December. Our results showed that Nortes increase the wind stress over the sea surface, rising the height and period of the waves over the southwestern and central GoM. Nortes also disturb the sealevel and the surface currents, provoking high amplitude oscillations along the coasts, and accelerating and shifting the currents towards the southwest. Nortes bring cold, dry air that cools the ocean surface and the lower atmosphere and diminishes its relative humidity, which, together with the wind velocity increments, promote a positive sensible and latent heat flux maximized on the northwestern and western coasts. K E Y W O R D S central American cold surges, environmental afections, Gulf of Mexico, ocean-atmosphere interactions 1 | INTRODUCTION Central American cold surge outbreaks, colloquially known in Mexico as Nortes, are common features of the regional Gulf of Mexico (GoM) climate, occurring on short-time scales (in the order of days) during most of the year. These phenomena are a result of the equatorward advection of the lower atmosphere anticyclones, located

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Effect of climate change on wind waves generated by anticyclonic cold front intrusions in the Gulf of Mexico

Cited by 37 publications

References 35 publications

Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

Assessment of coastal flooding and associated hydrodynamic processes on the south-eastern coast of Mexico, during Central American cold surge events

Oceanic and atmospheric impact of central American cold surges (Nortes) in the Gulf of Mexico

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