Assessment of coastal flooding and associated hydrodynamic processes on the south-eastern coast of Mexico, during Central American cold surge events

Abstract

Abstract. Coastal flooding in the northern Yucatán Peninsula is mainly associated with storm surge events triggered by high-pressure cold front systems. This study evaluates the hydrodynamic processes of the Chelem lagoon, Mexico and the flooding threat from cold fronts for the neighbouring town of Progreso. A 30-year water-level hindcast (excluding wave set-up) was performed because of the lack of long-term tide gauge records. In order to assess the relative contribution from wave set-up and residual and astronomical tides to total flooding, the two worst storm scenarios in terms of maximum residual tide (Event A) and maximum water level (Event B) were simulated. Numerical results suggest that during Event A the wave set-up contribution reaches 0.35 at the coast and 0.17 m inside the lagoon, and these values are smaller for Event B (0.30 and 0.14 m, respectively). Results of the effect of the tidal phase on wave set-up and residual sea level show that (i) the wave set-up contribution increases during ebb tide and decreases during flood tide at the Chelem inlet, (ii) the residual tide is larger (smaller) near low (high) or receding (rising) tide, and (iii) maximum flooding occurs when the storm peak coincides with rising or high tide. The numerical results confirm the important role of wave set-up on the assessment of coastal flooding in micro-tidal coastal environments.

Mapping Impact of Tidal Flooding on Solar Salt Farming in Northern Java using a Hydrodynamic Model

“…Previous work by Seenath et al [34] acquired 10-m DEM in the flood modeling component and delivered relatively higher RMS error. Additionally, smaller frequencies of simulation, i.e., 5-sec [79,80] and 6-min [81] will improve the model's stability. While there are advantages to use a hydrodynamic model for tidal flood mapping, the required computation time and the resolution of input data may limit its application in practice, especially for larger areas (compare Seenath et al [34]).…”

Assessing Different Flood Risk and Damage Approaches: A Case of Study in Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico

“…The geographical position and topographical characteristics of the northern Yucatan Peninsula expose the coastal zone to flood threats induced by both tropical cyclones [1] and Central American cold surges, locally called 'Nortes' [2,3]. A 'Norte' event is defined as a cold anticyclonic air mass that originates poleward of Mexico and penetrates equatorward to at least 20 • N [4][5][6].…”

“…For instance, the fourth Norte event in 2007 (October 23) caused substantial flooding in the state of Tabasco (southern part of the Gulf of Mexico) with a total cost of damage and losses evaluated in $ USD 2.45 billion [7]. The northern coast of Yucatan is also vulnerable to Nortes, mainly when they occur during high spring tides [3]. As such, it is necessary to have data, tools, and methodologies to quantify flood damage in coastal zones to improve flood risk management related to Nortes.…”

“…As such, it is necessary to have data, tools, and methodologies to quantify flood damage in coastal zones to improve flood risk management related to Nortes. However, the lack of long-term tide gauge records along the Yucatan coast makes it challenging to perform extreme flood analysis in this area; consequently, there is a need to use model data, as is the case for the sea level and currents hindcast implemented for this area [3].…”

Changes in the flooding area due to storm surge under climate change in an extensive wetland area in the southern Gulf of Mexico

“…In addition to the difference in wind intensity, and the fact that tropical cyclones occur in summer and early autumn while Nortes occur in late autumn and winter, one of the main differences between them is their frequency of occurrence. For example, in the last 150 years an average of only 0.16 tropical cyclones per year has been recorded for the Yucatan Peninsula (Rey et al, 2018), but there have been 16 to 24.5 Nortes per year in this area, depending on how they are defined (Reding, 1992;. Due to this high occurrence of Nortes, Rey et al (2018) performed a 30-yr water-level hindcast to assess its influence on the hydrodynamic processes of the Chelem lagoon and the flooding hazard associated to them in the northern Yucatan Peninsula.…”