Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on AIDS incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality in Brazil: a longitudinal ecological study

Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030

“…Previous studies focused on specific countries have shown that CCTs could reduce child and maternal mortality and, in adults, the burden of poverty-related diseases, such as leprosy, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS . In our study, we found a stronger association of CCTs with postneonatal and toddler mortality, which are more related to socioeconomic conditions, compared with the neonatal period, during which mortality depends more on health care infrastructure and assistance during and after delivery.…”

“…Although the exclusion of municipalities with an inadequate level of vital information could have reduced the external validity of the findings, it was an essential factor for strengthening the internal validity of the study and reducing any possible bias caused by changes in the quality of the death notification system, mainly reduction of subnotifications, during the study period. However, these quality criteria are commonly used in similar studies in Latin American countries, and our sensitivity analyses showed that the main results were maintained also when all municipalities were considered. The second limitation is the uncertainty of the forecasted scenarios and future mortality rates in those younger than 5 years attributable to the high socioeconomic and health volatility in Latin American countries in the middle and long term.…”

“…We evaluated the association of CCT target coverage with child mortality and hospitalization during the years 2000 to 2019 using negative binomial multivariable regression models with fixed-effects specifications, which are consolidated methods for impact evaluations with aggregate-level panel data of hospitalization and mortality rates . The fixed-effects models include a term to control for characteristics of the unit of analysis that are approximately constant during the study period and that have not been included in the model as confounding variables, such as some geographic, historical, or sociocultural aspects of each municipality, whereas the negative binomial distribution is used to deal with the overdispersion of mortality data in the municipalities .…”

Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030

“…Additionally, conditional cash transfers are also able to improve a wide range of socioeconomic factors that affect health, such as improved education, reduced inequalities, and social exclusion . Regarding PBF in Brazil, its association with reduced overall morbidity and mortality is expected due to its proven effect on child and maternal mortality, in particular for diarrheal diseases and malnutrition, and its potential to reduce incidence and mortality from all poverty-related causes …”

“…The ESF is a primary health care program within the Unified Health System that provides community-based care to families and households in selected communities through multidisciplinary teams composed of physicians, nurses, and A detailed description of the mechanisms that could explain the large consequence of each intervention on health outcomes are shown in eAppendix 1 in Supplement 1. Regarding conditional cash transfers, although previous studies have also shown that they are associated with reduced child, maternal, and disease-specific mortalities, 7,15,23,24 to our knowledge, none has ever evaluated its association with overall, adult, and older adults' mortality. There are several mechanisms through which these outcomes may occur.…”