Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005

Neels, Karel; Theunynck, Zita; Wood, Jonas

doi:10.1007/s00038-012-0390-9

Cited by 71 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The evidence for the years 2009-2012 suggests that in many countries total fertility rates stopped rising in and subsequently declined in 2011-12 (VID 2012, Goldstein et al 2013, Lanzieri 2013. This is in line with a pro-cyclical association between economic trends and fertility rates that characterized developed countries in recent decades Adsera 2011b;Neels et al 2013). However, there was considerable variation in fertility changes by country, age, and birth order, which suggests that different segments of the population responded differently to the early stage of the recession (Goldstein et al 2013, Lanzieri 2013).…”

Section: Box 3: the Impact Of The Recent Economic Recessionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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Section: Box 3: the Impact Of The Recent Economic Recessionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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“…In developed countries it is well established that there is a relationship between economic recession and fertility trends (Neels, Theunynck, and Wood 2013;Rindfuss, Morgan, and Swicegood 1988;Santow 2001). Our findings provide support for this association and extend the procyclical and countercyclical responses to economic cycles beyond developed economies to developing countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia

Dávalos¹,

Morales²

2017

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDThe effects of an economic recession extend beyond financial spheres and spill over into present and future family decisions via income restrictions and expectations. Hardly any research on the effects of economic recession on fertility outcomes has taken place in developing countries. OBJECTIVEThis study seeks to explain the effects of economic cycles on fertility outcomes in poor areas. METHODSThis paper analyzes fertility trends from the third largest economy in Latin AmericaColombia -from 1998 to 2013. We estimate a panel data regression model with state and year fixed effects. RESULTSOn average, periods of recession are associated with fertility decline in poor areas and fertility growth in well-off areas. During an economic crisis, fertility in poor states decreases by 0.002 children per woman, while in well-off states fertility increases by 0.007 children per woman. CONCLUSIONSThe impact of an economic crisis on fertility varies depending on poverty. Poor states have procyclical responses while well-off states tend to have countercyclical reactions to economic downturns. CONTRIBUTIONThis study illuminates the procyclical and countercyclical debate, showing that within a country there can be two different responses to an economic downturn.

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“…The type of occupation and the sector of employment were also used to capture employment security, based on the assumption that employment in particular occupations or in the public sector provides a greater degree of labor market security than self-employment or employment in private enterprises (Maul 2012). Most studies have found that male unemployment is associated with lower first birth transition rates (Neels et al 2013;Pailhé and Solaz 2012;Schmitt 2012a). However, the effect of female unemployment on first birth rates was shown to be weak in some studies (Kravdal 2002), and non-existent in others (Gutiérrez-Domènech 2008;Özcan et al 2010;Vignoli et al 2012).…”

Section: Economic Uncertainty and Fertility: Recent Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of our empirical knowledge of the effects of economic uncertainty on birth dynamics dates from the pre-crisis era. In these studies, unemployment (Adsera 2011;Del Bono et al 2014;Gutiérrez-Domènech 2008;Huttunen and Kellokumpu 2012;Kravdal 2002;Kreyenfeld and Andersson 2014;Kreyenfeld 2010;Matysiak and Vignoli 2008;Neels et al 2013;Özcan et al 2010;Pailhé and Solaz 2012;Schmitt 2012a), as well as term-limited working contracts (De La Rica and Iza 2005;Gebel and Giesecke 2009;Vignoli et al 2012) have been explored as potential influences on fertility postponement and transitions to higher order births. However, these studies have so far failed to produce conclusive evidence of an association between economic uncertainty and fertility.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

Kreyenfeld

2016

Social Demography Forschung an Der Schnittstelle Von Soziologie Und Demografie

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Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in the role of economic uncertainty in family behavior. Despite the prevailing "bourgeois conviction" that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children, the empirical evidence on this issue is mixed. In this paper, I summarize the recent empirical evidence, and discuss the potential limitations of previous investigations. Among the possible shortcomings of these studies is that many relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational definition of labor market uncertainty. Subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, which measure the individual's perception of his or her economic situation more directly, often were not available to researchers. Moreover, few of these studies explored group-specific differences in behavior. In this paper, we seek to overcome some of the limitations of these earlier analyses. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we study the role of perceived economic uncertainty in transitions to first and higher order births for the period 1990-2013. In addition, we examine how different population subgroups (stratified by education, parity, and age) respond to economic uncertainty.

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Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005

Cited by 71 publications

References 31 publications

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

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