Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future

Abstract

Analyzing economic impacts of disasters has attracted interest from a wide audience in recent years, not only because of the frequent occurrence of large natural disasters worldwide but also because of the spread of terrorism to a global scale. This paper reviews past modeling studies for economic impact analysis of disasters, focusing especially on the input-output model and related modeling frameworks, such as the social accounting matrix and the computable general equilibrium model. The paper also discusses the issues of disaster modeling raised by the literature, and proposes some future directions.Impact analysis, disasters, input-output, extensions,

Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature

“…Still the economics of natural disasters is a fairly recent branch of the economic research (Okuyama, 2007;Pelling et al, 2002). Before the 2000s this topic was almost exclusively in the domains of other disciplines of social sciences and the technical sciences (Cavallo & Noy, 2010).…”

Evaluation of indirect loss from hypothetical catastrophes in two regions with different economic development levels in China

“…The comparison of backward linkages indicates that after the earthquake, the demand for raw material from the upstream industries declines, which will restrain the total production of the upstream industries for a lengthy period of time and will reduce the production of all of industries. Also as some published literatures pointed out, most of the indirect losses are caused by forward linkages (Haimes et al, 2005;Okuyama, 2007;Hallegatte, 2008). For example, upstream industries cannot provide sufficient raw material for downstream industries due to damaged factories and equipments.…”

The Use of What-If Analysis to Improve the Management of Crisis Situations

“…If one sector suffers from a disaster, all businesses aggregated in this sector suffer the same consequences, regardless of spatial location. There are no distinct production functions and no explicit supply chains modelled in the sector [34][35][36].…”