Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature

Lazzaroni, Sara; Bergeijk, Peter A.G. van

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.08.015

Cited by 111 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Yet, what may look like a catastrophe at the local level does not necessarily matter at aggregate levels, unless the geographical size of the country is itself very small, such as Haiti, for instance (Cavallo et al 2010). Therefore, while negative effects are found on specific samples or disaster types (e.g., Hsiang and Jina (2014) for cyclones), no significant impact emerge in meta-analyses of indirect costs (Lazzaroni and van Bergeijk 2014). 2 Skidmore and Toya (2002) even argue that natural disasters may even have a positive long run growth effect via the reconstruction activities in the recovery phase.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Changes in Natural Disaster Risk: Macroeconomic Responses in Selected Latin American Countries

Isoré

2018

Economies

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This paper studies the theoretical effects of changes in disaster risk on macroeconomic variables in five Latin American economies. It compares country-specific variants of the New Keynesian model with disaster risk developed by Isoré and Szczerbowicz (2017). Countries with higher price flexibility, such as Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, are found to be relatively less vulnerable to disaster risk shocks, as compared to Chile and Colombia in particular. Overall, the analysis suggests that increases in the probability of natural disasters over time may have significant macroeconomic effects, beyond the direct impact of actual disaster occurrences themselves.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Changes in Natural Disaster Risk: Macroeconomic Responses in Selected Latin American Countries

Isoré

2018

Economies

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“…As already mentioned in the introduction, general equilibrium models, which are widely employed to assess the economic impacts of disasters (Kousky, 2014;Lazzaroni and van Bergeijk, 2014), assume a global equilibrium in each timestep, i. e., they adjust prices to obtain immediate market clearance. In the direct disaster aftermath, these immediately adjusted prices should not be interpreted as real observable prices, but should rather be understood as scarcity indicators (Hallegatte, 2014).…”

Section: Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Loss-Propagation in the Global Supply Network: The Dynamic Agent-Based Model Acclimate

et al. 2016

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World markets are highly interlinked and local economies extensively rely on global supply and value chains. Consequently, local production disruptions, for instance caused by extreme weather events, are likely to induce indirect losses along supply chains with potentially global repercussions. These complex loss dynamics represent a challenge for comprehensive disaster risk assessments. Here, we introduce the numerical agentbased model acclimate designed to analyze the cascading of economic losses in the global supply network. Using national sectors as agents, we apply the model to study the global propagation of losses induced by stylized disasters. We find that indirect losses can become comparable in size to direct ones, but can be efficiently mitigated by warehousing and idle capacities. Consequently, a comprehensive risk assessment cannot focus solely on first-tier suppliers, but has to take the whole supply chain into account. To render the supply network climate-proof, national adaptation policies have to be complemented by international adaptation efforts. In that regard, our model can be employed to assess reasonable leverage points and to identify dynamic bottlenecks inaccessible to static analyses.Keywords: disaster impact analysis, higher-order effects, economic network, resilience, dynamic input-output model, agent-based modeling JEL: F100, F180, Q540, Q560 Please cite this paper asOtto C, Willner SN, Wenz L, Frieler K, Levermann A. (2017). Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate.

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“…It is important to estimate the indirect losses to assess the consequences of natural disasters on welfare, as has for example been emphasized by Hallegatte and Przyluski (2010). However, the evidence for the disaster impacts on economic growth are inconclusive and are mostly obtained from highly aggregated macroeconomic data at the country or regional levels (Klomp & Valckx, 2014;Lazzaroni & van Bergeijk, 2014). This inconsistency in results is in part related to the failure in fully accounting for the differences in disaster types, locations, economic and financial development, institutional quality, time period used for the analysis, disaster cost definitions, and assessment methodologies (Loayza, Olaberría, Rigolini, & Christiaensen, 2012;Cavallo, Galiani, Noy, & Pantano, 2013;Felbermayr & Gröschl, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Disaster impacts can be divided in direct impacts, like property losses, and indirect economic impacts, such as effects on economic growth. The former are relatively well understood, while insights into economic growth impacts of natural disasters are more uncertain (Lazzaroni & van Bergeijk, 2014). It is important to estimate the indirect losses to assess the consequences of natural disasters on welfare, as has for example been emphasized by Hallegatte and Przyluski (2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Natural Disasters on Firm Growth in Vietnam: Interaction with Financial Constraints

Zhou

Botzen

2017

SSRN Journal

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The theory on the disaster impacts on firm growth is ambiguous and the empirical evidence on this topic is scarce, which hampers the design of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies. This paper estimates growth models of the impacts of natural disasters on labour, capital, and value-added growth of firms in the short run, and identifies the role of financial constraints in shaping disaster outcomes. The analysis uses a comprehensive enterprise census data (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and also two different types of disaster measures from Vietnam: the physical intensity measures and the socioeconomic damage measures. We apply the Blundell-Bond generalized method of moments (GMM) to estimate firm level disaster impacts, and find robust evidence that natural disasters on average increase firm growth significantly. We also find stronger positive impacts in labour and output growth for more constrained firms. We argue that this occurs because financially more constrained firms substitute labour for capital during the reconstruction phase after a disaster.

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Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature

Cited by 111 publications

References 69 publications

Changes in Natural Disaster Risk: Macroeconomic Responses in Selected Latin American Countries

Changes in Natural Disaster Risk: Macroeconomic Responses in Selected Latin American Countries

Modeling Loss-Propagation in the Global Supply Network: The Dynamic Agent-Based Model Acclimate

The Impact of Natural Disasters on Firm Growth in Vietnam: Interaction with Financial Constraints

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