Economic indicators of hydrologic drought insurance under water demand and climate change scenarios in a Brazilian context

Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mário

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.04.014

Cited by 33 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The definition of the HRU was carried out using soil maps of the state of São Paulo. (Oliveira, 1999) and land-use maps were developed by Molin (2014) and Molin et al (2015) from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery for 2010, using a 1 : 60 000 scale. The procedure defined 49 HRUs inside the 20 sub-basins, i.e., 49 different combinations of soil type, soil cover and slope classes in our study area.…”

Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Characteristics of quantitative calibration and validation of SWAT in studied catchments (Moriasi et al, 2007). Area delimited by the digital terrain model (adapted from Mohor and Mendiondo, 2017 Porto, 2014), shows the need for the improvement of the SWAT model performance, especially to capture nonlinearities having impacts on regulating ecosystem services during extreme flows. For EbA scenarios, we planned to set up field investigations and SWAT calibrations (see Fig.…”

Section: Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil

Taffarello¹,

Srinivasan

Mohor

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complex dynamics occurring at catchments, freshwater quality modeling is still incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a few modeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies on hydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios under different land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, one of them related to ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), in Brazilian headwaters. Using the spatially semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, nitrate, total phosphorous (TP) and sediment were modeled in catchments ranging from 7.2 to 1037 km2. These headwaters were eligible areas of the Brazilian payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects in the Cantareira water supply system, which had supplied water to 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). We considered SWAT modeling of three LULC scenarios: (i) recent past scenario (S1), with historical LULC in 1990; (ii) current land-use scenario (S2), with LULC for the period 2010–2015 with field validation; and (iii) future land-use scenario with PES (S2 + EbA). This latter scenario proposed forest cover restoration through EbA following the river basin plan by 2035. These three LULC scenarios were tested with a selected record of rainfall and evapotranspiration observed in 2006–2014, with the occurrence of extreme droughts. To assess hydrologic services, we proposed the hydrologic service index (HSI), as a new composite metric comparing water pollution levels (WPL) for reference catchments, related to the grey water footprint (greyWF) and water yield. On the one hand, water quality simulations allowed for the regionalization of greyWF at spatial scales under LULC scenarios. According to the critical threshold, HSI identified areas as less or more sustainable catchments. On the other hand, conservation practices simulated through the S2 + EbA scenario envisaged not only additional and viable best management practices (BMP), but also preventive decision-making at the headwaters of water supply systems.

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Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil

Taffarello¹,

Srinivasan

Mohor

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…construction of the Cantareira system and the latest one was from 2000 to 2001 (Cavalcanti and Kousky, 2001). Thus, the system, designed to supply the increasing demand for water in the SPMR, began its partial operation in 1974 and its construction was completed in 1981 with a 30-year permit to transfer up to 35 m /s according to a periodic technical report (Mohor and Mendiondo, 2017;Taffarello et al, 2016a). Cantareira System is currently administered by SABESP, which mainly operates the water network in the SPRM, and with Government of the State of Sao Paulo as its main shareholder.…”

Section: Study Area and Water Crisis Contextualizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, this SDF framework could couple interdisciplinary studies, with better relationships towards the nexus of water security, energy security and food security. Thus, we recommend future research of SDF framework linked to: Palmer's drought indices (Rossato et al, 2017), modelbased framework to disaster management (Horita et al, 2017), ecosystem-based assessment for water security modeling (Taffarello et al, 2017), effectiveness of drought securitization under climate change scenarios (Mohor and Mendiondo, 2017). Moreover, SDF framework is capable of integrating actions towards: dynamic price incentive programs related to wise human-water co-evolution patterns, water-sensitive programs under deep cultural features, socio-hydrological observatories for water security, feasibility analysis of the economic impacts of implementing new technologies for water economy and flow measurement, leakage control, detecting and legalizing illegal connections and water reuse, among others.…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

Arias

Mohor

Taffarello

et al. 2017

Preprint

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10Climate variability and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning 11 strategies for urban water security in the long and medium term. However, actions to manage 12 the drought risk impacts entail great complexity, such as the calculation of economic losses The model framework is applied to the Cantareira Water Supply System for Sao Paulo 27Metropolitan Region, Brazil, with severe vulnerability to droughts. By using hydrological

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“…Under an increasing water demand scenario caused by population increase, agricultural practices and industrialization, several criteria or tools (like instruments for planning) should be incorporated to support and quantify consequences (Mohor and Mendiondo, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water security in the Vale do Paraiba´s basin: future scenarios

Fisch¹,

Santos²,

Silva³

2017

Rev. ambiente água

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This paper presents general aspects of the water budget (including the latest available figures from its components), followed by some characteristics of the rainfall along the Paraiba do Sul watershed. The regional water budget theme is then discussed, taking into account the actual and future rainfall in the region. Finally, reflections and discussions regarding the water security theme (represented by the water transposition from the Paraiba do Sul watershed to the Cantareira´s system) are discussed, as the latter represents the water demand of São Paulo City. The future scenarios of the water availability are estimated using a climatic simulation model. Keywords: geoscience, water management, climatic simulations, water transposition, Cantareira system. Seguridade da água na bacia do Vale do Paraíba do Sul: cenários futuros RESUMOInicialmente, os aspectos gerais do ciclo hidrológico (incluindo os valores mais atuais de suas componentes) são apresentados, seguido de algumas características da precipitação na bacia do Rio Paraíba do Sul. Posteriormente, o balanço de água regional foi discutido levandose em conta a distribuição de chuvas do passado e do futuro da região. Finalizando, são realizadas discussões e reflexões sobre o tema de seguridade de água (representado pela transposição de água entre esta bacia hidrográfica (quantificado pelo nível de água da represa de Paraibuna) e o sistema Cantareira, que fornece água para a cidade de São Paulo. Os cenários futuros sobre a disponibilidade de água foram estimados usando simulações climáticas.Palavras-chave: geociências, manejo de água, simulações climáticas, transposição de água, sistema Cantareira.

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Economic indicators of hydrologic drought insurance under water demand and climate change scenarios in a Brazilian context

Cited by 33 publications

References 44 publications

Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil

Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil

Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

Water security in the Vale do Paraiba´s basin: future scenarios

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