Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

Arias, Diego Alejandro Guzmán; Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna; Taffarello, Denise; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mário

doi:10.5194/hess-2017-615

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 65 publications

(83 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In accordance with previous studies, the region is seen to be particularly vulnerable to water scarcity events, with hydrological droughts likely to happen again in the near future (Marengo et al, 2010;Milano et al, 2018). Note that Guzmám et al (2017) has highlighted the highly complex nature of SPMR drought risk, and the fragility of local GDP given its heavy dependence on water for economic development.…”

Section: Planning For Resiliencesupporting

confidence: 85%

Assessing Water Security in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region Under Projected Climate Change

Gesualdo¹,

Oliveira²,

Rodrigues³

et al. 2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food-energy-water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding these effects is crucial to assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory Coefficient of Determination and Kling-Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. Then we used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and an extension of the dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes more than 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the Water Security Indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity.

show abstract

Section: Planning For Resiliencesupporting

confidence: 85%

Assessing Water Security in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region Under Projected Climate Change

Gesualdo¹,

Oliveira²,

Rodrigues³

et al. 2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is considered to be one of the largest public supply systems in the world, involving the damming and interconnection of five basins to create a sequence of four reservoirs used to supply water for 8.8 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR) (Marengo et al, 2015;Nobre et al, 2016). However, its importance is due not only to social relevance, but also to economic development, with the SPMR being responsible for about 20 % of the national gross domestic product (GDP) (Haddad and Teixeira, 2015;Taffarello et al, 2016).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change

Gesualdo¹,

Oliveira²,

Rodrigues³

et al. 2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food–energy–water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding of these effects is crucial for assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory coefficient of determination and Kling–Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 general circulation models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. We then used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and a 2-month extension of the hydrological dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes a more than a 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with a > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the water security indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity.

show abstract

“…Além dos efeitos sobre variáveis econômicas agregadas e sobre a agricultura, os extremos de seca afetam diretamente os custos e receitas das companhias de abastecimento urbano. Guzmán et al (2017) e Mohor e Mendiondo (2017), por exemplo, avaliaram a situação da Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo (Sabesp) e propuseram esquemas de seguros para assegurar as potenciais perdas com eventos extremos. Quanto maiores os custos das companhias de abastecimentos maiores devem ser as tarifas cobradas dos usuários.…”

Section: Impactos Econômicos De Secasunclassified

Mudanças climáticas, secas e impactos econômicos: uma análise para a Região Metropolitana de São Paulo

Sass¹

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Agradeço ao apoio financeiro da Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) por meio do processo 2018/08833-5, e da Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (FIPE).Agradeço ao meu orientador, professor Eduardo Haddad, não apenas pela orientação, mas também por ter propiciado meios para que eu pudesse entrar no programa de doutorado da FEA e por todo apoio dado desde que comecei a fazer parte do Nereus.Ao professor Mario Mendiondo por toda ajuda com as questões relacionadas à hidrologia e ao clima e pela acolhida no Wadi-Lab.Ao professor Azzoni, pela acolhida no Nereus e pelas sugestões dadas ao trabalho nas avaliações de progresso e apresentação nos seminários semanais.A todo o grupo do Nereus que de alguma forma contribuiu para o trabalho. Em especial à Adriana, por sempre estar disposta a auxiliar em qualquer problema que surgia, e ao Inácio e Gustavo, por me auxiliarem na estimação dos dados que utilizei nesse trabalho.Ao Pinho, que sempre estava disposto a ajudar em qualquer assunto do doutorado.Ao Eduardo (Contra), pelo apoio desde o processo seletivo do doutorado até a motivação para escrever as linhas finais da tese. À Lúcia pela amizade e companheirismo ao longo dos quatro anos do doutorado.Ao grupo dos Fiéis da Dr. Deusnise, Rapha, Denise, Duda, Dudu, Pedro, Tainá, Lúcia e Eduardo, pela amizade aos longo dos últimos anos.Palavras-chave: impactos de secas sobre a atividade industrial, análise regional, métodos integrados de análise, mudanças climáticas locais.

show abstract

Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

Cited by 9 publications

References 65 publications

Assessing Water Security in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region Under Projected Climate Change

Assessing Water Security in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region Under Projected Climate Change

Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change

Mudanças climáticas, secas e impactos econômicos: uma análise para a Região Metropolitana de São Paulo

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About