This work quantified temperature and precipitation variations in the region of Taubate using historic precipitation data and temperature simulations (climatology from 1961 to 1990). Corrections were made based on the observational data, and simulations of future time intervals (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099) using a climate-model simulation. Thus, it is possible to predict an increase of 3.6°C in the average annual air temperature and an increase of 231 mm in annual accumulated rainfall (equivalent to approximately 17% of the climatological normal) for the interval 2071-2099. Moreover, in relation to seasonal distribution, there is a higher monthly average temperature increase in the spring (4.1°C) and lower in the summer (3.4°C) and a higher average daily increase in summer rainfall (1.1 mm) and smaller increase in spring (0.3 mm). There is also an increase of approximately 5 days in the daily number of days with greater than 1mm precipitation throughout the year. The analysis of the water balance showed deficits in the months of August and September and found a disparity between the input and output of water entering the territory through precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water consumption, suggesting the need to adapt to new social and environmental scenarios.
This paper presents general aspects of the water budget (including the latest available figures from its components), followed by some characteristics of the rainfall along the Paraiba do Sul watershed. The regional water budget theme is then discussed, taking into account the actual and future rainfall in the region. Finally, reflections and discussions regarding the water security theme (represented by the water transposition from the Paraiba do Sul watershed to the Cantareira´s system) are discussed, as the latter represents the water demand of São Paulo City. The future scenarios of the water availability are estimated using a climatic simulation model. Keywords: geoscience, water management, climatic simulations, water transposition, Cantareira system. Seguridade da água na bacia do Vale do Paraíba do Sul: cenários futuros RESUMOInicialmente, os aspectos gerais do ciclo hidrológico (incluindo os valores mais atuais de suas componentes) são apresentados, seguido de algumas características da precipitação na bacia do Rio Paraíba do Sul. Posteriormente, o balanço de água regional foi discutido levandose em conta a distribuição de chuvas do passado e do futuro da região. Finalizando, são realizadas discussões e reflexões sobre o tema de seguridade de água (representado pela transposição de água entre esta bacia hidrográfica (quantificado pelo nível de água da represa de Paraibuna) e o sistema Cantareira, que fornece água para a cidade de São Paulo. Os cenários futuros sobre a disponibilidade de água foram estimados usando simulações climáticas.Palavras-chave: geociências, manejo de água, simulações climáticas, transposição de água, sistema Cantareira.
The alteration of global climate regimes due to anthropic action and excessive emission of greenhouse gases has been widely researched because it alters the patterns of climatological normals, generating changes in temperatures and precipitation worldwide. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Paraitinga and Paraibuna watersheds that together form the Paraibuna Dam, the main one of the Paraiba do Sul river watershed. This dam supplies the São Paulo Metropolitan Region by transporting water to the Cantareira System, the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region by transporting water to the Guandu watershed, and the Paraiba Valley Metropolitan Region, one of the most industrialized in Brazil. To investigate future precipitation trends, past and future climate simulations were used from the HadCM3/Eta model using the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) A1B, and precipitation analysis using Quantis techniques to determine extreme rainfall and drought periods. The results point to an increase in precipitation averages in the region, followed by a greater intensity of extreme rainfall, which may lead to a higher occurrence of natural disasters such as landslides.
The water crisis that hit the Southeast region of Brazil in the years 2014 and 2015 was generated by an atmospheric blocking associated with a high-pressure zone that persisted for more than 45 days, causing a drastic decrease in precipitation rates throughout the region. This fact had a major impact on the municipality of São Paulo, causing a crisis of lack of water availability. To face the problem of water shortages for the São Paulo Metropolitan Region, the water transposition from Paraíba do Sul River watershed to the Cantareira System was proposed to mitigate the referred crisis and other future ones. Therefore, to investigate the feasibility of the proposed solution becomes very important, given the changes in the rainfall profile generated by global climate changes that affect the climatic element precipitation. Geoprocessing techniques were associated with future rainfall data simulated by the HadCM3/Eta model using SRES (Special Report Scenarios Emission) A1B of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to investigate the long-term feasibility of this proposal. The results point to the possibility of the project’s unsustainability until the year 2040, since only 35% of the year’s transposition may occur, reducing to 30% if only considering the 2030s.
Radiation affects the environment and local human activity in any location of the earth's surface. Due to this fact, the aim of this study was to monitor the ionizing radiation and rain intensity using portable devices. During May 23 to October 2, 2015, it was made measures the intensity of gamma radiation from 30 keV to 10.0 MeV at a height of 25 meters in São José dos Campos city, SP, Brazil. It was used a crystal of sodium iodide scintillator 3 × 3 inches coupled to a photomultiplier and associated electronic. The measurements were made continually with minute's interval throughout the period and it was monitored rain intensity every minute at the same height of the tower. In this job, it was possible to correlate rain-radiation and it was observed which gamma radiation has a directly proportional relationship with rain and visible frequency of 1 day.
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