Economic impacts of transportation network changes: Implementation of a combined transportation network and input‐output model

Abstract

This article estimates and evaluates the economic impacts from a catastrophic earthquake within regional and national contexts, emphasising the inter‐industry relationship in conjunction with regional commodity flows and the assessment of seismic damages on a transportation network. The analytical methods employed are twofold: a multi‐regional input‐output model and a regional commodity flow model. Using the above analytical framework, the economic impacts from a catastrophic earthquake are estimated and evaluated based on hypothetical scenarios of the event, by analysing the magnitude and extent of direct and indirect impacts. Furthermore, as possible extensions, the models developed here can be used as tools for strategic management of the recovery and reconstruction efforts after the event.

A Multiregional Impact Assessment Model for disaster analysis

“…Recently however, more research focuses on assessing the indirect losses outside the affected region in more detail as well. A few studies have emphasized the multiregional effects of natural disasters in general (Okuyama et al, 2004;Okuyama, 2010;Bierkandt et al, 2014;Ciscar et al, 2014;Wenz et al, 2014), floods (In den Bäumen et al, 2015) and earthquakes in specific (Cho et al, 2001;Kim et al, 2002;MacKenzie et al, 2012;Arto et al, 2015). These studies that took multiregional effects into account show that substantial losses, but also benefits, can occur outside the affected regions.…”

Combining Geoprocessing and Interregional Input-Output Systems: An Application to the State of São Paulo in Brazil

“…Subsequently, Wilson (1970) More recent works also apply concepts of entropic maximization or minimization and the gravity model by way of estimating the flows of goods and services among the regions. As example: Cho and Gordon (2001) make considerations about a model for determining economic impacts in front of catastrophes, using transportation networks, information theory and inputoutput models; Kim et al (2002) evaluate the impacts in the transportation networks caused by earthquakes, utilizing an algorithmic procedure that associates the optimization of flows in stretches of roads with the entropy, the gravity model and the model of Leontief-Strout. However, these methods demand specific data on transportation that are not easily obtained.…”

TransNIEMO: economic impact analysis using a model of consistent inter-regional economic and network equilibria

“…Also, Okuyama et al (1999) and Kim et al (2002) applied a Midwest regional economic model and missed capturing the full set of spillover effects. Unless a model accounts for secondary effects or substitutions in the economy at the national level, policy makers will not have the full picture.…”