A Multiregional Impact Assessment Model for disaster analysis

Koks, Elco; Thissen, Mark

doi:10.1080/09535314.2016.1232701

Cited by 145 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The model was originally developed for the entire European Union, consisting of 256 NUTS 2 regions, 59 products and 14 sectors (Koks and Thissen 2016), following the European Classification of Products by Activity (Nace 1.1 -CPA 2002). For the purpose of this paper, only the 20 Italian regions are considered, and the rest of Europe is aggregated into a single unit.…”

Section: Model Basicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nonlinear optimization has been combined with IO modeling techniques to overcome these issues, thus providing the simplicity of IO modeling (i.e., Leontief production function) while allowing for some more flexibility (Baghersad and Zobel 2015;Oosterhaven and Bouwmeester 2016). One such approach can be found in the MultiRegional Impact Assessment (MRIA) model (Koks and Thissen 2016). With the use of the MRIA model, the first aforementioned issue is tackled by using optimization techniques to solve the model, which allows for taking endogenous import and supply constraints into account in an essentially demand-determined model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Impacts of Irrigation-Constrained Agriculture in the Lower Po Basin

Pérez-Blanco

Koks

Calliari

et al. 2018

Water Econs. Policy

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Climate change, increasing demand for water, higher environmental standards and inelastic water supply suggest that future drought response in Southern Europe would require more efficient management of water use. In this context, there is a pressing need for a better understanding of the economic impacts of irrigation restrictions, including their microeconomic and broad economic repercussions. This paper connects a multi-attribute Revealed Preference Model working at an agricultural district level with a regionally calibrated supply and use model that combines nonlinear programming and input-output modeling techniques to address water allocation issues. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time these two modeling approaches are combined in this fashion. Methods are illustrated with an application to the Lower Po River Basin (LPRB) in the Emilia Romagna Region, Italy. Results show that irrigation restrictions generate rising incremental losses in the agricultural districts of the LPRB, which are amplified through negative inter-sectorial feedbacks at a regional level.

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Section: Model Basicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Impacts of Irrigation-Constrained Agriculture in the Lower Po Basin

Pérez-Blanco

Koks

Calliari

et al. 2018

Water Econs. Policy

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“…In addition, articles with explicit transportation network modeling but missing economic analysis were not included because these works only study the impacts of transportation disturbances from an engineering point of view, largely focusing on infrastructure management, transportation safety, traffic optimization, etc. Lastly, studies investigating the economic impacts of the disruptions to other kinds of infrastructure systems (e.g., power plants or water supply system disruptions) or papers without a clear analysis of the losses resulting from the disturbance of the transportation sector were removed from the review inventory (Aloughareh et al 2016;Koks and Thissen 2016;). This way, 25 articles were identified, and another 17 articles were found by surveying the references of the original 25 or by going through their listed publications of the authors.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disturbances to Urban Mobility and Comprehensive Estimation of Economic Losses

et al. 2018

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Civil infrastructure systems are disturbed by natural or man-made hazards at an increasing frequency and severity. Among these systems, transportation systems are especially vulnerable due to their nature and are of significant importance to urban built environments as they maintain the mobility of urban dwellers and goods. Mobility disturbances are significant not only due to the direct losses associated but also due to the greater economic impacts driven by indirect losses stemming from the economic interactions of regions and sectors. Therefore, understanding the economic impacts of urban mobility disturbances is critical. To achieve a better understanding of the status quo of the research on transportation disturbances and economic impact analysis, a literature review was conducted. The review indicates that most of the articles fail to leverage realistic hazard impact information and explicit network modeling, consequently jeopardizing the credibility of the results. To begin addressing the gaps in the field, an interdisciplinary framework was designed to investigate the economic impacts of mobility disturbances. To validate the framework, a case study was conducted to estimate the economic impacts of commuting-based mobility disturbances resulting from a potential earthquake scenario in the Greater Los Angeles Area. The direct and indirect economic losses were estimated to be 285.49 and 93.48 million dollars, respectively. The results indicated that the economic losses could vary significantly among regions as well as industries. Among the five counties in the study region, Los Angeles County suffered the most. In addition, industries related to finance, education and scientific services, etc. were estimated to experience larger losses.

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“…They compare the regional and national disaster impacts of two flooding scenarios for the Italian Po River delta, as estimated with, respectively, the adaptive regional input-output (ARIO) model developed by Hallegate (2008), a regionalized version of the CGE model developed by Standardi, Bosello, and Eboli (2014), as applied by Carrera, Standardi, Bosello, and Mysiak (2015), and the multiregional impact assessment (MRIA) model of Koks and Thissen (2016). The latter model resembles our own approach most.…”

Section: Testing the Impact Of Assuming Fixed Ratiosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

Oosterhaven

Többen

2017

Spatial Economic Analysis

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Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper further develops a new methodology to estimate the wider, indirect impacts of major disasters, and applies it to the 2013 heavy flooding of southern and eastern Germany. We model the attempts of economic actors to continue their usual activities, as closely as possible, by minimizing the information gain between the pre-and post-disaster pattern of economic transactions of the economy at hand. Findings show that government support of local final demand substantially reduces the indirect losses of the floods, while having a disaster at the top of the business cycle increases them. Moreover, we find that assuming fixed trade origin shares and fixed industry market shares, as in all multiregional inputoutput models, leads to implausibly large estimates of the indirect losses. aux graves inondations survenues en Allemagne méridionale et orientale, en 2013. Nous modélisons les tentatives, par des acteurs économiques, de poursuivre, le plus possible, leurs activités normales en minimisant les gains d'informations du modèle de transactions économiques de l'économie présente entre la période précédent la catastrophe et celle qui lui fait suite. Les résultats montrent que l'assistance du gouvernement à la demande finale locale réduit dans une grande mesure les pertes indirectes dues aux inondations, alors qu'en plaçant une catastrophe en haut du cycle des affaires, on les augmente. Nous notons également que l'hypothèse de parts fixes de l'origine des échanges et de parts fixes du secteur industriel, comme dans tous les modèles d'entrée / sortie plurirégionaux, donne lieu à des estimations anormalement élevées des pertes indirectes. KEYWORDS MOTS CLÉSanalyse des désastres; commerce inter-régional; tableau offre -utilisation plurirégional; gains d'informations RESUMEN Repercusiones económicas más amplias por las fuertes inundaciones en Alemania: un enfoque de programación no lineal. Spatial Economic Analysis. En este artículo seguimos desarrollando una nueva metodología para calcular las repercusiones amplias e indirectas de desastres importantes que ponemos en práctica con la fuerte inundación de 2013 del sur y el este de Alemania. Modelamos, lo más cerca posible, los intentos de los actores económicos de continuar sus actividades habituales, por lo que minimizamos la ganancia de información entre el patrón antes y después de la catástrofe de las transacciones económicas de la economía a mano. Los resultados muestran que el apoyo gubernamental a la demanda final de ámbito local reduce considerablemente las pérdidas indirectas causadas por las inundaciones, mientras que sufrir una catástrofe en la cima del ciclo comercial las aumenta. Además, observamos que si suponemos cuotas fijas de origen comercial y cuotas fijas de mercado de la industria, al igual que en todos los modelos de entradas y salidas multirregionales, llegamos a estimaciones absurdamente grandes de las pérdidas indirectas. PA...

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A Multiregional Impact Assessment Model for disaster analysis

Cited by 145 publications

References 45 publications

Economic Impacts of Irrigation-Constrained Agriculture in the Lower Po Basin

Economic Impacts of Irrigation-Constrained Agriculture in the Lower Po Basin

Disturbances to Urban Mobility and Comprehensive Estimation of Economic Losses

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

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