Economic Considerations in Family Growth Decisions

Abstract

Examination of the fertility patterns of a sample of white Detroit couples at selected stages of the family life cycle indicates that, in a large American metropolis, family income is more closely related to the time when a family is formed and has its children than to the number of children it expects to have. In a longitudinal study, current income is strongly related to the timing of demographic events-the age at marriage, whether pre-maritally pregnant, the time interval from marriage to a given parity, and fertility during a two-year follow-up period. This paper also explores the hypothesis that a family's evaluation of its economic position and the choices it makes about important family expenditures has a relation to fertility apart from the family's objective current income level. Couples who consider their income adequate for their needs or relatively greater than that of their friends or peers, and those who expect substantial increases in the future, tend to expect more children than those who do not. Small but consistent differences obtain over the parities studied. Variables indexing alternative family expenditure patterns, such as cars, or savings for college education for children, are associated with lower family size expectations and longer spacing patterns.

Women's paid work and the timing of births

“…Measurement problems almost certainly account for their apparent disagreement with the contraction effect observed here. Previous socio-demographic analyses are of two kinds: (i) Studies based on early American fertility surveys [Westoff et al (1961), Namboodiri (1964), Freedman and Coombs (1966)] correlated 'months worked during marriage' with either marriage duration at successive births or interbirth intervals; the positive association found in this way is likely to represent mainly confounding between measures [see Ni Bhrolchfiin (1985a) for detailed comment].…”

Possible Paths for GDP Per Capita – Simulation with a Demographic Growth Model

“…Adelman 1963, Freedman 1963, Silver 1965, Freedman -Coombs 1966a, Freedman -Coombs 1966band Easterlin 1973 concedes that the decrease in the total fertility rate and the growing human capital investments occurred at roughly the same time in history. Further schools of thought other than the synthesis theory that distance themselves from Becker's ideas explain the reduction in the fertility rate with several factors.…”

Az egy főre jutó GDP lehetséges pályái – szimuláció egy demográfiai alapú növekedési modellel

“…szintézisel-mélet is, amely pedig nem támogatja a Becker-féle mennyiségi-minőségi csere fogalmát (pl. Adelman 1963, Freedman 1963, Silver 1965, Freedman -Coombs 1966a, Freedman -Coombs 1966bés Easterlin 1973, elfogadja, hogy a termékenységi ráta csökkenése és a növekvő humántőke-beruházás történelmileg azonos időszakban valósulnak meg. A szintéziselméleten kívüli, de a beckeri gondolatoktól elhatárolódó számos más irányzat több tényezővel magyarázza a termékenységi ráta csökkenését.…”