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A new method for measuring preferences for number of children is presented and related to the subsequent fertility of a panel of married women over a five-year period. TheI-scales, developed on the basis of unfolding theory, reflect the individual's utility function for children. They differ from global stated preferences and are more fine-grained measures, sensitive to variations from a first choice. Scales obtained at an initial interview were found to be consistently predictive of fertility in the prospective period, net of a number of other variables usually associated with differential fertility. Their potential both as independent and dependent variables in research is discussed.

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Data from Malaysia on the reproductive goals of husbands and wives are analyzed to determine level of agreement, using new scale measures on preferences for number and sex of children as well as the conventional measure of desired number of children. The level of agreement between husband and wife varies considerably depending on the focus of analysis and the measure of agreement used. Overall aggregate agreement of men and women is high but lower for subgroups of the population, particularly among various ethnic groups. For marital partners, the agreement is much lower, especially on sex preferences. The level observed depends on whether the measure is identity of responses or an index of homogeneity which allows for couple concordance based on chance or common socialization factors. The views about the reproductive goals of one marital partner cannot with confidence be assumed to represent the views of the other.

Analysis of the extent to which husbands and wives agree in their attitudes toward a number of key issues that may affect fertility behavior shows that although aggregate views of men and women are remarkably similar, marital couples are frequently in disagreement, particularly if measures discounting for chance agreement of responses are employed. In other words, we cannot accept either the husband or the wife as a surrogate respondent. These conclusions are based on data from cross-sectional surveys in a developing society, Taiwan, of 2000 couples in which the wife was of childbearing age. The impact on fertility of such marital disagreement varies with the attitude in question. Followup birth data over a four-year period indicate that, when there is disagreement, it is the wife's attitude that has more influence on fertility, particularly if she has the stronger belief about the future security and status to be derived from a large family and from sons. In the constellation of factors that may affect fertility, increasing attention has focused recently on the role of the husband and his attitudes toward reproductive goals and toward values and The data for this paper were collected by the Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning under the direction of T.S. Sun, in collaboration with the University of Michigan Population Studies Center and with the financial assistance of the Population Council. Grants from the Center for Population Research of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the Ford Foundation provided support for the analysis. We wish to acknowledge the assistance of James B. Rogers in the computer work and of Ronald Freedman in comments on an earlier version of this paper.