Ecological zoning of soybean rust, coffee rust and banana black sigatoka based on Brazilian climate changes

Alves, Marcelo de Carvalho; Carvalho, Luiz Gonsaga de; Pozza, Edson Ampélio; Sanches, Luciana; Maia, João Carlos de Souza

doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2011.05.005

Cited by 28 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Rainfall becoming unreliable and temperature increases are expected to reduce the suitability of many coffee producing zones as currently suitable areas become marginal [14], [16], [17]. The incidence and severity of some coffee pests and diseases such as the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari)) and coffee leaf rust ( Hemileia vastatrix (B & Br)) are projected to increase, reducing yield and quality and increasing production costs [8], [18], [19]. These effects will be profound for the smallholder coffee farmers in Africa, Asia and Latin America who supply up to 70% of global coffee, rely in many cases solely on coffee as a unique and legal source of livelihoods, and lack both coping and alternative economic options [10], [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

et al. 2013

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The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

et al. 2013

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“…It is forecasted that drought will increase in this region, while rainfall will increase in the south and southeast regions [40]. As the growth of SBR is influenced by precipitation and moisture [41], there is a possibility of an epidemic in the south and southeast regions [13]. Caetano et al [42] showed that cultivation of soybeans in the central region, which is the most productive area, will not remain environmentally suitable due to climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As SBR is affected by environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation, an epidemic can be influenced by climate change [13]. At the same time, climate change can also affect the yield of soybean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, the effect of climate change on soybean yield is still ambiguous and there are limited studies on this topic. Alves et al [13] predicted the future severity of SBR in Brazil with temperature and precipitation as explanatory variables. The study predicted the possibility of a severe SBR outbreak across Brazil given the current situation and emphasized that it would spread to the south (Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina) and southeast (Minas Gerais and São Paulo) of Brazil, which are the main soybean producing areas, with 39.9% production in the 2017/2018 crop year [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the Contribution of Soybean Rust- Resistant Cultivars to Soybean Production and the Soybean Market in Brazil: A Supply and Demand Model Analysis

Ishiwata

Furuya

2020

Sustainability

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Soybean rust (SBR), caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi (Sydow & Sydow), has become a serious issue in Brazil. As Brazil is one of the largest soybean-producing and exporting countries in the world, a considerable decrease in soybean production due to SBR would have a significant impact on the global soybean market. SBR-resistant cultivars have been developed to prevent a decrease in soybean production. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of SBR-resistant cultivars on soybean production and the soybean market in Brazil using a supply and demand model. This model consists of functions of yield, cultivated area, exports, and stock changes of soybean and soybean products, demand for soybean products, and price linkages. Five scenarios were simulated to evaluate the economic impact of adopting SBR-resistant cultivars as follows: One without SBR infection, two with serious production losses due to SBR in the south and southeast regions and all the states of Brazil, and two with the adoption of SBR-resistant cultivars in the south and south-east regions and all the states of Brazil. Our simulations suggest that adopting SBR-resistant cultivars reduces the cost of controlling SBR by approximately half and is essential for sustainable soybean production and a stable global soybean market.

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“…The purpose of ecological zoning is to separate areas with similar constraints for agricultural developmental planning, land use optimization and cultural practices management. There are large numbers of studies devoted to characterize ecological zones for crop production, using the data of climate, soil, landform and land cover conditions (Liu et al 2013;Neamatollahi et al 2012;Alves et al 2011). As in these references, crop land was divided into several ecological zones such as the most suitable, suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable zones for more effective land-use planning and management (Store and Jokimä ki 2003;Chen et al 2010;Su et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying a salinity response function and zoning saline land for three field crops: a case study in the Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia, China

Tong

Chen²,

Wen

et al. 2015

Journal of Integrative Agriculture

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Salinity is one of the major abiotic factors affecting the growth and productivity of crops in Hetao Irrigation District. In this study, the salinity tolerances of three local crops, wheat (Triticum aestinum L.), maize (Zea mays L.) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), growing in 76 farm fields are evaluated with modified discount function. Salinity ecological zones appropriate for these local crops are characterized and a case study is presented for crop salinity ecological zoning. The results show that the yield reductions of wheat, maize and sunflower when grown in saline soils are attributed primarily to a reduction in spikelet number, 1000-grain weight and seed number per head, respectively. Sunflower is the most tolerant crop among the three which had a salinity tolerance index (ST-Index) of 12.24, followed by spring maize and spring wheat with ST-Indices of 9.00 and 7.43, respectively. According to the crop salinity tolerance results, the arable land in the Heping Village Area of this District was subdivided into four salinity ecological zones: the most suitable, suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable zones. The area proportion of the most suitable zone for wheat, maize and sunflower within the Heping Village Area was 27.5%, 46.5% and 77.5%, respectively. Most of the most suitable zone occurred in the western part of the village. The results of this study provide the scientific basis for optimizing the local major crop distribution and improving cultural practices management in Hetao Irrigation District.

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Ecological zoning of soybean rust, coffee rust and banana black sigatoka based on Brazilian climate changes

Cited by 28 publications

References 36 publications

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

Evaluating the Contribution of Soybean Rust- Resistant Cultivars to Soybean Production and the Soybean Market in Brazil: A Supply and Demand Model Analysis

Applying a salinity response function and zoning saline land for three field crops: a case study in the Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia, China

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