The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

Kutywayo, Dumisani; Chemura, Abel; Kusena, Winmore; Chidoko, Pardon; Mahoya, Caleb

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073432

Cited by 72 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Maxent (v.3.4.1; http://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/maxent/) is a machine learning software package attempting to simulate and predict how the distribution of a selected species will be modified in response to given environment changes (mostly climate and land use changes) [45] with a maximum entropy approach for species distribution simulations. It has proven useful and is widely used in habitats (e.g., wetlands and agriculture) distribution modeling [46][47][48][49][50]. In this study, the model was developed by running 10 replicates with randomly splitting the distribution data into two subsets: 75% for calibrating and training the models and the reminder for testing and evaluating the model performance [51].…”

Section: Quantitatively Distinguishing the Impacts Of Anthropogenic Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Influences of the increasing pressure of climate change and anthropogenic activities on wetlands ecosystems and agriculture are significant around the world. This paper assessed the spatiotemporal land use and land cover changes (LULCC), especially for conversion from marshland to other LULC types (e.g., croplands) over the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain (SNP and SJP), northeast China, during the past 35 years . The relative role of human activities and climatic changes in terms of their impacts on wetlands and agriculture dynamics were quantitatively distinguished and evaluated in different periods based on a seven-stage LULC dataset. Our results indicated that human activities, such as population expansion and socioeconomic development, and institutional policies related to wetlands and agriculture were the main driving forces for LULCC of the SJP and SNP during the past decades, while increasing contributions of climatic changes were also found. Furthermore, as few studies have identified which geographic regions are most at risk, how the future climate changes will spatially and temporally impact wetlands and agriculture, i.e., the suitability of wetlands and agriculture distributions under different future climate change scenarios, were predicted and analyzed using a habitat distribution model (Maxent) at the pixel-scale. The present findings can provide valuable references for policy makers on regional sustainability for food security, water resource rational management, agricultural planning and wetland protection as well as restoration of the region.

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Section: Quantitatively Distinguishing the Impacts Of Anthropogenic Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

et al. 2018

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“…The white stem borer has been little studied, but it has been observed to be more common close to shade trees (Rutherford and Phiri 2006). It was recently proposed that research is needed to explore if agroforestry can be an effective way of managing the stem borer (Kutywayo et al 2013). Based on these observations, we hypothesized that the abundance of coffee berry borers would decrease with the level of shade, whereas white stem borer abundance would increase.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on these observations, we hypothesized that the abundance of coffee berry borers would decrease with the level of shade, whereas white stem borer abundance would increase. Recent modeling of climate change scenarios suggests that the problems of both pests are likely to increase in many parts of Africa (Jaramillo et al 2009(Jaramillo et al , 2011Kutywayo et al 2013). To simulate global warming in the next 15-50 years, we studied the effect of shade on the pests at two different altitudes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting effects of shade level and altitude on two important coffee pests

et al. 2014

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The diversity and abundance of natural enemies of insect pests is often higher in agroforestry plantations than in sun-exposed monocultures, and it is often assumed that this will lead to improved pest suppression. The effect that incorporating trees in cropping systems will have on pest populations, however, also depends on the habitat requirements of the pests themselves. In Eastern Uganda, we studied how shade level (full [50 trees per acre, moderate 21-50 trees per acre, and low 0-20 trees per acre) and altitude (high 1,717-1,840 m.a.s.l. and low 1,511-1,605 m.a.s.l.) influenced the abundance of the white stem borer Monochamus leuconotus and the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei. We found that the effect of shade trees differed between the two pest species. The coffee berry borer was more common on sun-exposed plantations, whereas the white stem borer was more common in shaded plantations. Furthermore, the effect of shade level on the white stem borer depended on altitude, with the differences between shade levels being most pronounced in plantations at low altitudes. This implies that the impact of agroforestry on pest regulation both under current conditions and in a global warming scenario will be highly context dependent; it will depend on the identity of the most important pests in the area, and on environmental factors such as altitude.Keywords Agroforestry Á Climate change Á Hypothenemus hampei Á Monochamus leuconotus Á Sunexposure Á Uganda Key message• We studied how agroforestry influenced infestations of two key coffee pests in Uganda: the coffee berry borer and the white stem borer. • Agroforestry decreased incidence of coffee berry borers, but increased white stem borers. • The effect of agroforestry on the white stem borer was larger at low altitudes. • The overall impact of agroforestry on pest regulation will therefore be context dependent; it will depend on the identity of the most important pests in an area, and on environmental factors such as altitude.

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“…This movement cause insects to adapt to new host plants thereby altering the structure, diversity and functioning of ecosystems (IPCC, 2007) and increasing the host range of insect pests (Jaworski & Hilszezenski, 2013). In a study that was conducted in Zimbabwe, using the Generalized Linear Models (GLM) on coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.), it was predicted that the area suitable for the insect will increase in Chimanimani district by up to 200% by 2080 (Kutywayo et al, 2013). This suggests that some geographical areas that are too cold or unsuitable for certain insect species under the current climate scenario may become susceptible to insect pests under future climates.…”

Section: The Impact Of Elevated Temperature On the Biology Of Insect mentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of Insect Pests and Plant Diseases to Changing and Variable Climate: A Review

Katsaruware-Chapoto¹,

Mafongoya²,

Gubba³

2017

JAS

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Natural and anthropogenic factors have resulted in altered environmental conditions that influence changes in abundance and diversity of insect pests. Global climate change projections focus on crop yields and adaptation strategies to declining yields and ignore the likely impact of a changing climate on insect pests and plant diseases. In this research paper, we review the effects of climate variables namely temperature, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), precipitation and extreme weather events on insect pests and plant diseases incidence. Elevated temperatures, CO 2 and extreme weather events have been shown to alter the distribution, reproductive potential, the incidence and abundance of plant insects and diseases in temperate regions because of the dependence of insects and diseases on environmental conditions. There is limited information on the influence of temperature and carbon dioxide as well as their interaction on the incidence and severity of insect pests, bacterial and viral diseases in the tropical regions. Information on the influence of altered precipitation patterns is also limited but could be of importance in insect distribution studies in a changing climate. Some tropical insects pests are most likely to suffer from extreme heat, resulting in death and hence pest extinction. Future research should focus on the interaction of elevated temperature and CO 2 , determine the influence of supra optimal summer temperatures, temperature variability, precipitation variability and the corresponding viral and bacterial diseases.

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The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

Cited by 72 publications

References 38 publications

Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

Contrasting effects of shade level and altitude on two important coffee pests

Responses of Insect Pests and Plant Diseases to Changing and Variable Climate: A Review

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