Evaluating the Contribution of Soybean Rust- Resistant Cultivars to Soybean Production and the Soybean Market in Brazil: A Supply and Demand Model Analysis

Abstract

Soybean rust (SBR), caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi (Sydow & Sydow), has become a serious issue in Brazil. As Brazil is one of the largest soybean-producing and exporting countries in the world, a considerable decrease in soybean production due to SBR would have a significant impact on the global soybean market. SBR-resistant cultivars have been developed to prevent a decrease in soybean production. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of SBR-resistant cultivars on soybean production and the soybean market in Brazil using a supply and demand model. This model consists of functions of yield, cultivated area, exports, and stock changes of soybean and soybean products, demand for soybean products, and price linkages. Five scenarios were simulated to evaluate the economic impact of adopting SBR-resistant cultivars as follows: One without SBR infection, two with serious production losses due to SBR in the south and southeast regions and all the states of Brazil, and two with the adoption of SBR-resistant cultivars in the south and south-east regions and all the states of Brazil. Our simulations suggest that adopting SBR-resistant cultivars reduces the cost of controlling SBR by approximately half and is essential for sustainable soybean production and a stable global soybean market.

Growth performance, serum biochemistry and meat quality traits of Jumbo quails fed with mopane worm (Imbrasia belina) meal-containing diets

“…The demand for soybean by the animal, food and biofuel industries has increased tremendously in such a way that its production has doubled ( Castanheira & Freire, 2013 ). From an environmental and economic viewpoint, soybean production incurs high variable costs and is highly dependent on the use of fuel, machinery, pesticides and chemical fertilizers ( Sharma, 2016 ; Arrieta, Cuchietti, Cabrol, & González, 2018 ; Ishiwata & Furuya, 2020 ). According to Brandão, Clift, Milà, and Basson (2010) , the emission of nitrogen oxide from nitrogen fertilizers and mineralization of organic matter is the major contributor of greenhouse gases in soybean production.…”

Fungicide Cost Reduction with Soybean Rust-Resistant Cultivars in Paraguay: A Supply and Demand Approach

“…To investigate the effects of SBR damages and the dissemination of SBR-resistant cultivars on the supply and demand for soybeans and soybean products, we used a supply and demand model based on the work of Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Furuya [6]. The supply and demand model for soybeans in Paraguay is comprised 28 structural equations and five identities, as follows.…”

“…The percentage of production losses refers to the case of Brazil [3] because actual losses are unclear in Paraguay. For the damage (Scenario 1) and cultivar adoption scenarios (Scenarios 2 and 3), we refer to the technological dissemination model of Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Furuya [6,7] based on Griliches [27]. The cultivar dissemination scenarios adopted the actual case of new cultivars that had been disseminated in Paraguay [28].…”

“…Because the main soybean-producing region in Paraguay is adjacent to southern Brazil, one of the country's main soybean-producing regions, events in one country influence the other [5]. SBR-resistant cultivars have been developed in Latin American countries and can be used to reduce fungicide costs [6,7]. In Paraguay, 71.9% of soybean farmers are small farmers and the increasing number of fungicides required to control SBR threatens their incomes.…”

“…Econometric approaches to forecasting soybean production and the Latin American market have been used by many researchers [6,7,[11][12][13], although such efforts have been quite limited in regard to Paraguay. Because SBR and SBR-resistant cultivars affect the global soybean market and producers' production costs, an econometric approach should be applied.…”