Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird

Ruegg, Kristin; Bay, Rachael A.; Anderson, Eric C.; Saracco, James F.; Harrigan, Ryan J.; Whitfield, Mary J.; Paxton, Eben H.; Smith, Thomas B.

doi:10.1111/ele.12977

Cited by 103 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

122

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This allowed us to visualize the differences in allele frequencies (referred to as 'genomic turnover') along environmental gradients across space. To validate that our model explained more variation than expected by chance, we performed 10 GF models with randomized environmental variables following Ruegg et al (2018) and compared the number of SNPs with positive r 2 and the mean r 2 across these SNPs between models.…”

Section: Prediction Of Genomic Mismatchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of landscapes and range expansion on population structure and local adaptation

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Summary Understanding the origin and distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes is critical for predicting the future of organisms in changing climates. This study investigated how adaptive and demographic forces have shaped diversity and population structure in Pinus densata, a keystone species on Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We examined the distribution of genomic diversity across the range of P. densata using exome capture sequencing. We applied spatially explicit tests to dissect the impacts of allele surfing, geographic isolation and environmental gradients on population differentiation and forecasted how this genetic legacy may limit the persistence of P. densata in future climates. We found that allele surfing from range expansion could explain the distribution of 39% of the c. 48 000 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Uncorrected, these allele frequency clines severely confounded inferences of selection. After controlling for demographic processes, isolation‐by‐environment explained 9.2–19.5% of the genetic structure, with c. 4.0% of loci being affected by selection. Allele surfing and genotype–environment associations resulted in genomic mismatch under projected climate scenarios. We illustrate that significant local adaptation, when coupled with reduced diversity as a result of demographic history, constrains potential evolutionary response to climate change. The strong signal of genomic vulnerability in P. densata may be representative for other QTP endemics.

show abstract

Section: Prediction Of Genomic Mismatchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of landscapes and range expansion on population structure and local adaptation

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, range shifts under future climate change are predicted to result in genetic homogenization across species ranges and loss of historic and current population subdivisions (13). More recent studies integrated genomic adaptations with ENM projections to identify vulnerable populations that will need to adapt to survive under future climate change (14, 15). However, genetic data related to intraspecific variation in climatic adaptations have yet to be directly incorporated into ENMs.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

Razgour

Forester

Taggart

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

341

319

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

show abstract

“…multi-year extreme drought scenarios, which are historically rare and only observed in several of the later years of our study (2013-15), may become increasingly common (Griffin & Anchukaitis, 2014 Climate trends have been implicated in altered species distributions and biodiversity loss around the globe and can have profound consequences for ecosystem functioning (Hooper et al, 2012). An expanding array of metrics has been proposed to assess species vulnerability to future climate change (Bellard, Bertelsmeier, Leadley, Thuiller, & Courchamp, 2012;Pacifici et al, 2015;Ruegg et al, 2018). Demographic parameters are key among these because they provide a mechanistic link between population processes, climate covariates, and population dynamics (Grosbois et al, 2008).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation

Saracco

Siegel

Helton

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demographic variables from mist‐netting data (breeding phenology and productivity) at six sites along an elevation gradient spanning the montane zone of Yosemite National Park between 1993 and 2017. We implemented multi‐species hierarchical models to relate demographic responses to elevation and climate covariates. Annual variation in climate and avian demographic variables was high. Snowfall declined (10 mm/year at the highest site, 2 mm at the lowest site), while spring temperature increased (0.045°C/year) over the study period. Breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) advanced by 0.2 day/year (5 days); and productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) increased by 0.8%/year. Breeding phenology was 12 days earlier at the lowest compared to highest site, 18 days earlier in years with lowest compared to highest snowfall anomalies, and 6 d earlier in relatively warm springs (after controlling for snowfall effects). Productivity was positively related to elevation. However, elevation–productivity responses varied among species; species with higher productivity at higher compared to lower elevations tended to be species with documented range retractions during the past century. Productivity tended to be negatively related to snowfall and was positively related to spring temperature. Overall, our results suggest that birds have tracked the variable climatic conditions in this system and have benefited from a trend toward warmer, drier springs. However, we caution that continued warming and multi‐year drought or extreme weather years may alter these relationships in the future. Multi‐species demographic modeling, such as implemented here, can provide an important tool for guiding conservation of species assemblages under global change.

show abstract

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird

Cited by 103 publications

References 55 publications

Effects of landscapes and range expansion on population structure and local adaptation

Effects of landscapes and range expansion on population structure and local adaptation

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About