Dynamics of the temperature regime of the North Atlantic coastal zone as an indicator of changes in the system of thermohaline circulation

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to analyze dynamics of the temperature regime of the surface layer of the atmosphere in the coastal zone of the North Atlantic as an indicator of changes in the thermohaline circulation system. In carrying out the research, comparative-geographical and historical statistical methods of the analysis of meteorological series were used. For research, 20 control points of the eastern part of the United States and Western Europe, which are located along the flow course of the Gulf Stream, are selected. In the selected points, by means of the linear trend method, the regularities of the dynamics of the mean annual, average maximum and average minimum temperatures of the atmospheric surface layer for the period from 1973 to 2013 have been established. The results of the study showed that, contrary to the hypothesis of fall in temperature in Europe, an increase in average annual and average maximum temperatures is observed in all control points of the region - the range means the linear trend is from 0.9 to 4.4 o F and from 0.3 to 3.8 o F respectively. In most US control points, the average annual temperature rises from 0.1 to 3 o F and the average maximum temperature rises from 0.2 to 2.1 oF. For four points of the United States the decrease in the values of the linear trend of average annual temperatures is from -0.4 to -1.2 o F; for three points - a decrease in average maximum temperatures is from -1.3 to -1.9 o F. At 9 control points in the USA and 8 control points in Europe, the average values of the minimum temperatures in the research period increased - in the USA, from 0.1 to 3.1 o F; in Europe from 0.3 to 4.6 o F. The opposite dynamics in the regions is observed for the values of the temperature amplitude. In most control points in Europe, the difference between the average maximum and the average minimum annual temperatures ranged from 0.4 to 6.6 o F; in most US destinations, on the contrary, a decrease in the amplitude value from -1.6 to -3 oF is observed. The analysis of the temperature dynamics of the surface layer of the atmosphere indicates the prevailing warming processes in the coastalzone of the North Atlantic, more intense for control points in Western Europe. The obtained data give grounds for refuting hypotheses of the presence of critical deviations in the thermohaline circulation system of the Atlantic Ocean, which could lead to a cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. The change in the amplitude values is a manifestation of increasing instability of the climate, which is likely to remain in the future with a general increase in the mean annual temperature in the region.

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