Dynamic simulation of socio-ecological Systems: sustainability in Biosphere Reserves

Banos-González, Isabel; Martínez-Fernández, Julia; Selma, Miguel Ángel Esteve

doi:10.7818/ecos.2013.22-3.11

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 40 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The interest of current studies of land use change, beyond a mere descriptive representation in form of maps analysis, focuses on a more dynamic modeling for understanding the past, monitoring the current situation, and predicting future trajectories [45,46]. The review conducted confirms this and shows that there are numerous models of land use that allow us to explore the dynamics of changes and analyze future scenarios that may be useful to support land use planning and policy development [15,47,48]. In the following subsections, we return to the questions posed in the Introduction.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

García

Fernández²,

Fitz

2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Scenario analysis is a useful tool to facilitate discussions about the main trends of future change and to promote the understanding of global environmental changes implications on relevant aspects of sustainability. In this paper, we reviewed 294 articles published between 1995–2019, to evaluate the state of the art use of models and scenarios to investigate the effects of land use change and climate change on natural and social-ecological systems. Our review focuses on three issues. The first explores the extent to which the environmental dynamics of land use and climate change were jointly analyzed and the spatial scales associated with such integrated studies. The second explores the modelling methodologies and approaches used in the scenario analysis. The third explores the methods for developing or building scenarios. Results show that in most predictions there is little integration of key drivers of change. We find most forecasting studies use a sectoral modelling approach through dynamic spatially distributed models. Most articles do not apply a participatory approach in the development of scenarios. Based on this review, we conclude that there are some gaps in how scenario analysis on natural and social-ecological systems are conducted. These gaps pose a challenge for the use of models and scenarios as predictive tools in decision-making processes in the context of global change.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

García

Fernández²,

Fitz

2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Dynamic modelling of the potential habitat loss of endangered species: the case of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae)

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this work, we apply a dynamic modelling approach to analyse the habitat loss of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae). This tool allows us to assess the effects of the socio-economic and environmental interactions on the factors threatening the habitat and to carry out a prospective analysis. The results show a potential habitat loss of around 13 % during the period 1996-2011, the land uptake and increase in new roads and tracks being the factors contributing most. After model testing, a set of scenarios was explored. Under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, around 20 % of the habitat would be lost by the end of the period considered (2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025). The impact of the economic growth scenario on the habitat would mean an additional loss of around 21 % with respect to BAU, whereas under the recession scenario, the loss might be around 6.5 % lower than BAU. The policy of restoration of gavias-traditional farming systems-would suppose an additional loss of almost 6 %, relative to BAU. If this policy took place under economic growth conditions, it might mean an additional loss of almost 28 % relative to BAU. These results point to the existence of a potential trade-off between the recuperation of ecosystem services offered by restored gavias and the conservation of the houbara habitat, which must be addressed within the management processes, as well as to the need for compensatory measures to guarantee the conservation goals.

show abstract

Simulación hidrológica de los impactos potenciales del cambio climático en la cuenca hidrográfica del río Aipe, en Huila, Colombia

Romero-Cuéllar

Buitrago-Vargas

Quintero-Ruiz

et al. 2018

Ribagua

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

La dinámica de un mundo global y el hombre como nueva fuerza geológica plantean la necesidad de tomar decisiones robustas, diseñar estrategias de manejo y de adaptarse al cambio climático. Este estudio investiga la respuesta hidrológica de la cuenca hidrográfica del río Aipe (688.9 km 2), en Huila, Colombia, en acorde con los escenarios de cambio climático desde 2011 a 2040. El modelo hidrológico abcd de Thomas (4 parámetros) fue calibrado y validado comparando el caudal simulado y lo observado en el punto de cierre de la cuenca (en la estación Puente Carretera), usando series históricas mensuales (1992-2012). Realizamos la evaluación de la sensibilidad e identificabilidad de los parámetros con la herramienta 'Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox' (MCAT). Los resultados muestran que el modelo es capaz de representar adecuadamente los caudales mensuales observados en el punto de desagüe de la cuenca, al encontrarse un índice de eficiencia de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) de 0,89. Los parámetros más influyentes son a (almacenamiento del agua en el suelo) y c (aporte al acuífero). Con respecto a la simulación de los escenarios, la línea base (1992-2012) estimó un caudal medio de 15,44 m 3 s-1 ; el escenario de extrapolación de tendencias estimó un caudal de 13,79 m 3 s-1 (-10,64%); el escenario de ensamble multi-modelo de 9,34 m 3 s-1 (-39,47%) y el escenario A2 de 5,74 m 3 s-1 (-62,60%). Proponemos una batería de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático que buscan la gestión integral del recurso hídrico. Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Aipe river basin in Huila, Colombia

show abstract

Dynamic simulation of socio-ecological Systems: sustainability in Biosphere Reserves

Cited by 3 publications

References 40 publications

Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

Dynamic modelling of the potential habitat loss of endangered species: the case of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae)

Simulación hidrológica de los impactos potenciales del cambio climático en la cuenca hidrográfica del río Aipe, en Huila, Colombia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About