Dynamic modelling of the potential habitat loss of endangered species: the case of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae)

Abstract

In this work, we apply a dynamic modelling approach to analyse the habitat loss of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae). This tool allows us to assess the effects of the socio-economic and environmental interactions on the factors threatening the habitat and to carry out a prospective analysis. The results show a potential habitat loss of around 13 % during the period 1996-2011, the land uptake and increase in new roads and tracks being the factors contributing most. After model testing, a set of scenarios was explored. Under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, around 20 % of the habitat would be lost by the end of the period considered (2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025). The impact of the economic growth scenario on the habitat would mean an additional loss of around 21 % with respect to BAU, whereas under the recession scenario, the loss might be around 6.5 % lower than BAU. The policy of restoration of gavias-traditional farming systems-would suppose an additional loss of almost 6 %, relative to BAU. If this policy took place under economic growth conditions, it might mean an additional loss of almost 28 % relative to BAU. These results point to the existence of a potential trade-off between the recuperation of ecosystem services offered by restored gavias and the conservation of the houbara habitat, which must be addressed within the management processes, as well as to the need for compensatory measures to guarantee the conservation goals.

Display site selection in a ground dwelling bird: the importance of viewshed

“…In our study area, several major tracks cross important houbara breeding areas, and are heavily used by vehicles. Surprisingly, Hingrat et al (2008) noted that, in Morocco, display sites were closer to tracks than random sites, but this may be explained by the much lower traffic intensity in the Moroccan desert compared to our study area, a top tourist destination where tracks are intensively used by hikers, cyclists, cars and off-road vehicles ( Carrascal et al 2006 , 2008 ; Banos-González et al 2016 ). In Morocco, some males even displayed directly in the middle of tracks, probably because tracks provided artificial open places without stones and vegetation and thus suitable for running display.…”

What to expect from alternative management strategies to conserve seabirds? Hints from a dynamic modelling framework applied to an endangered population

“…In fact, dynamic modelling is currently considered a fundamental tool in ecology to predict the future consequences of alternative management scenarios and, therefore, could be used as a complementary method to PVAs (Warwick‐Evans et al ., 2016; Weller et al ., 2016; Crookes & Blignaut, 2019; Drechsler, 2020). Several types of dynamic models have been used to evaluate and predict the outcome of contrasting scenarios in the scope of conservation ecology (Banos‐González et al ., 2016; Morinha et al ., 2017; Li et al ., 2020), ranging from the classical Lotka‐Volterra model in the 1920s and population dynamics in the 1950s, to the current highly complex and integrative socio‐ecological and environmental ones (Jørgensen & Fath, 2011; Buchadas et al ., 2017; Moon et al ., 2019; Steger et al ., 2021).…”

Human decimation caused bottleneck effect, genetic drift, and inbreeding in the Canarian houbara bustard

“…The Canarian houbara bustard is classified as globally endangered (BirdLife International 2021), after a population decline over the nineteenth and twentieth centuries due to hunting and egg collection (Webb et al 1842, Meade‐Waldo 1889, Cabrera y Diaz 1893, Collar 1983), and more recently due to habitat destruction caused by human activities and mortality from collisions with power lines, aerial telephone lines, and roadkills (Lorenzo 2004, Ucero et al 2021). In Fuerteventura, where a significant reduction in houbara numbers has occurred in the last decades (Schuster et al 2012, Ucero et al 2021), habitat loss has been estimated at around 13% for 1996–2011, and a predicted additional 20–28% loss by 2025 (Banos‐González et al 2016). Lanzarote, in contrast, represents the subspecies' stronghold, with approximately 80% of the population (Alonso et al 2020, Ucero et al 2021).…”