Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Kwakkel, Jan H.; Walker, Warren E.; Maat, Judith ter

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006

Cited by 1,264 publications

(1,061 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…These projections remain, however, uncertain (Milly et al, 2005;Clark et al, 2016). To account for this uncertainty, quantitative hydrologic storylines, in which key features of climate change impact are represented, can guide water managers in developing dynamic policy pathways (Haasnoot et al, 2013). In order to establish a meaningful range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, we need to reveal, reduce, and represent this uncertainty McMillan et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

Melsen

Addor

Mizukami

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Hydrologic projections are of vital socioeconomic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070-2100 compared to 1985-2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

Melsen

Addor

Mizukami

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Dynamic pathways need such information for forecasting and verification (Haasnoot et al, 2013). This constitutes the basis for uncertainty reduction in the DPSIR chain, thus providing robustness in the decision making.…”

Section: A Shared Roadmap Integrated Assessment (Present and Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The adaptation pathway should also include a follow-up, to assess the efficiency of the proposed interventions and establish critical or tipping points in the development (Haasnoot et al, 2013). It is an essential requirement for an adaptation plan since only this information will allow a critical assessment of the positive and negative impacts of the intervention which together with its initial and maintenance costs should permit a continuous assessment of the long term consequences.…”

Section: A Shared Roadmap Integrated Assessment (Present and Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sea level rise (Church et al, 2013;Devoy, 2015b;Jevrejeva et al, 2014a), changes in wave patterns (Casas-Prat and Sierra, 2013;Wang et al, 2014) and storminess (Nissen et al, 2014) plus enhanced subsidence rates (Brown and Nicholls, 2015;Ibàñez et al, 1997Ibàñez et al, , 2010 alter the natural coastal resilience and hamper a sustainable long-term coastal management. The high degree of uncertainty of these changes may hinder long-term planning and demands a flexible roadmap, able to adapt throughout its lifetime (Haasnoot et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Managing coastal environments under climate change: Pathways to adaptation

Sánchez‐Arcilla

Garcı́a-León

Gràcia

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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“…The five different stages for adaptive policy-making advanced in our framework mirror the ones defined by Haasnoot et al (2013) building on Kwakkel et al (2010) and Walker et al (2001).…”

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confidence: 99%

A limits-oriented approach to sustainable planning assessments: a comparative analysis of South East Queensland (Australia) and Lombardia (Italy)

Baresi¹

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Sustainable development is one of the key issues facing human survival on this planet. The urban planning discipline is actively involved in fostering more feasible ways to structure human activities and their relationship with the global ecosystem's finite resources. Since sustainability has become a major issue for human kind, sustainability assessments have proliferated in different ways to integrate socio-economic prosperity and provide environmental safeguards. In theory, these assessments can contribute towards addressing the increasing threats posed by climate change and by the depletion of natural resources, by building consensus around shared strategies involving a wide range of stakeholders to address national and international sustainable development goals. In practice however, sustainability assessments are undermined by problems associated with first the policy-making processes (for example, stakeholders' involvement) and second the measurement of the impacts of policies, plans and programs (such as the definition and computation of sustainability indicators). These issues weaken community trust in sustainability assessments and reduce their efficacy. Critical research is required to explore viable solutions.The main goal of this thesis is to address the shortcomings of current procedures for sustainability assessment. A comparative case study explores differences and similarities between an Australian region (South East Queensland) and an Italian region (Lombardia), which are representative of different institutional and planning backgrounds. Methodologically, this thesis develops and applies a framework to understand how limitations within political and societal processes prevent the achievement of environmentally sustainable planning. This framework combines a 'limits-oriented approach to evolutionary ecology' (Sih & Gleeson 1995) transposed to governance and policy-making processes, and the need to pursue a sustainable use of finite natural resources as suggested by positions addressing the 'limits to growth' by Meadows et al. (1972).Overall, this thesis develops an approach to diagnose current obstacles that need to be overcome and the pathway for achieving institutionalised limits-oriented approaches for improving procedures of sustainability assessment. This 'limits-oriented' framework outlines the benefits that South East Queensland and Lombardia can achieve by optimising current practices for sustainable planning within their regional contexts. This approach explores the limiting traits that undermine the performance of sustainability assessments, and proposes ways to bridge the gaps that separate their theoretical conceptualisation from their practical implementation.The framework developed and tested through this thesis offers an analytical lens to examine how the assessment of sustainable planning is currently featured in different institutional contexts. Its experimental implementation in countries with different planning traditions provides an insight on iii how to overcome iss...

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Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

Cited by 1,264 publications

References 42 publications

Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

Managing coastal environments under climate change: Pathways to adaptation

A limits-oriented approach to sustainable planning assessments: a comparative analysis of South East Queensland (Australia) and Lombardia (Italy)

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