Drought and the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, 2012–2016: Environmental Review and Lessons

Durand, John R.; Bombardelli, Fabián A.; Fleenor, William E.; Henneberry, Yumiko; Herman, Jonathan D.; Jeffres, Carson A.; Leinfelder-Miles, Michelle; Lusardi, Robert A.; Manfree, Amber D.; Medellín-Azura, Josué; Milligan, Brett; Moyle, Peter B.; Lund, Jay R.

doi:10.15447/sfews.2020v18iss2art2

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(61 reference statements)

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“…The abiotic and biotic drivers of the described changes in abundance and distribution are likely complex and interacting. For example, over the modeled time period, the Estuary saw changes in water export regimes (Gartrell et al 2017), the introduction of several highly invasive plant and invertebrate species (Cohen and Carlton 1998), and both record-setting droughts (Durand et al 2020) and extremely wet years (CDEC 2021). These factors interact, changing the amount and quality of habitat for native and introduced pelagic fishes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Spatiotemporal History of Key San Francisco Estuary Pelagic Fish Species

Stompe

Moyle

Oken

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Estuaries across the globe have been subject to extensive abiotic and biotic changes and are often monitored to track trends in species abundance. The San Francisco Estuary is a novel ecosystem that has been deeply altered by anthropogenic factors, resulting in fish declines over the past 100 years. To track these species declines, a patchwork of monitoring programs has operated regular fish surveys dating back to the late 1950s. While most of these surveys are designed to track population-scale changes in fish abundance, they are methodologically distinct, with different target species, varying spatial coverage and sample frequency, and differing gear types. To remediate for individual survey limitations, we modeled pelagic fish distributions with integrated data from many sampling programs. We fit binomial generalized linear mixed models with spatial and spatiotemporal random effects to map annual trends in the distribution of detection probabilities of striped bass, Delta smelt, longfin smelt, threadfin shad, and American shad for the years 1980 to 2017. Detection probabilities decreased dramatically for these fishes in the Central and South Delta, especially after the year 2000. In contrast, Suisun Marsh, one of the largest tidal marshes on the west coast of the United States, acted as a refuge habitat with reduced levels of decline or even increased detection probabilities for some species. Our modeling approach demonstrates the power of utilizing disparate datasets to identify regional trends in the distribution of estuarine fishes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Spatiotemporal History of Key San Francisco Estuary Pelagic Fish Species

Stompe

Moyle

Oken

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Many species and ecosystems are stressed when extreme events intensify and become more frequent, leaving less time for systems to recover between events. For example, the 2012-to-2016 drought had a profound effect water flows and salinity profiles in the Delta, which affected not only water management but also populations of native fish, and the abundance and distribution of invasive aquatic plants (Durand et al 2020). Crossing a threshold can set an ecological system into a dramatically different regime (e.g., the POD; Box 1).…”

Section: The Pelagic Organism Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ill-informed management responses during extreme events can exacerbate the problem. Durand et al (2020) describe how "in 2014, measurement and modeling errors led to depletion of cold water behind Shasta Dam and high temperatures below Keswick Dam … killing 95% of larval winter-run Chinook Salmon." During more rapid change and greater uncertainty, managers need to be informed in real time as scientists amend predictions for the future, to reduce the likelihood that their decisions will create more problems than they solve.…”

Section: The Pelagic Organism Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

Preparing Scientists, Policymakers, and Managers for a Fast-Forward Future

Norgaard¹,

Wiens²,

Brandt³

et al. 2020

SFEWS

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Ecosystems in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are changing rapidly, as are ecosystems around the world. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and thresholds are likely to be crossed more often, creating greater uncertainty about future conditions. The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not remain stable long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their research findings to inform policy and management. Faced with these challenges, those involved in science, policy, and management must adapt and change and anticipate what the ecosystems may be like in the future. We highlight several ways of looking ahead—scenario analyses, horizon scanning, expert elicitation, and dynamic planning—and suggest that recent advances in distributional ecology, disturbance ecology, resilience thinking, and our increased understanding of coupled human–natural systems may provide fresh ways of thinking about more rapid change in the future. To accelerate forward-looking science, policy, and management in the Delta, we propose that the State of California create a Delta Science Visioning Process to fully and openly assess the challenges of more rapid change to science, policy, and management and propose appropriate solutions, through legislation, if needed.

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