Preparing Scientists, Policymakers, and Managers for a Fast-Forward Future

Abstract

Ecosystems in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are changing rapidly, as are ecosystems around the world. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and thresholds are likely to be crossed more often, creating greater uncertainty about future conditions. The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not remain stable long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their research findings to inform policy and management. Faced with these challenges, those involved in science, policy, and management must adapt and change and anticipate what the ecosystems may be like in the future. We highlight several ways of looking ahead—scenario analyses, horizon scanning, expert elicitation, and dynamic planning—and suggest that recent advances in distributional ecology, disturbance ecology, resilience thinking, and our increased understanding of coupled human–natural systems may provide fresh ways of thinking about more rapid change in the future. To accelerate forward-looking science, policy, and management in the Delta, we propose that the State of California create a Delta Science Visioning Process to fully and openly assess the challenges of more rapid change to science, policy, and management and propose appropriate solutions, through legislation, if needed.

Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social–ecological systems

“…A carefully designed international cooperative governance framework is also thought to protect water resources and sustain ecosystem goods and services. 56: Bush et al ( 2010 ), 73: Norgaard et al ( 2021 ) 45: Deinne and Ajayi ( 2021 ), 78: Dou et al ( 2020 ), and 83: Pham et al (2017), and 77: Kattel (2020) …”

“…The rapid rise in human population and associated demand for resource extraction combined with major biodiversity loss has dramatically altered delta environments, triggering environmental degradation (Kuenzer and Renaud 2012 ; Moder et al 2012 ; Best and Darby 2020 ), loss of livelihoods (Hill et al 2020 ; Kuenzer et al 2020 ), and in extremis could lead to the potential collapse of intertwined delta SESs (Renaud et al 2013 ; Best 2019 ; Edmonds et al 2020 ). Wang et al ( 2012 ) argue that there is a need to anticipate tipping points, or critical transitions, in social–ecological systems; it is imperative to understand better how anthropogenic and naturogenic activities instigate large-scale change in river deltas, and whether these changes threaten the crossing of irreversible tipping points (Norgaard et al 2021 ).…”

Climate Change Impacts on San Francisco Estuary Aquatic Ecosystems: A Review

“…This work builds on an extensive literature review of climate effects on the estuary by the Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) Climate Change Team (CC MAST 2022). We also build on recent climate-related discussions about effects and adaptation (Ghalambor et al 2021;Norgaard et al 2021). Our goal is to identify priority topics for research and monitoring that can facilitate sound management of the estuary under climate change.…”

Invasive Aquatic Vegetation in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh: The History and Science of Control Efforts and Recommendations for the Path Forward

“…We include a description of the regulatory context because it often sets the boundaries for research and development of control technologies. Finally, we present recommendations for enhanced leadership and key science actions to advance progress for adaptive management of IAV control actions, which is critically needed as the system responds to a changing climate and shifting, growing human demands (Norgaard et al 2021).…”