Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on arid and semiarid grasslands in Central Asia during 1982–2015

Chen, Tao; Bao, Anming; Jiapaer, Guli; Guo, Hao; Zheng, Guoxiong; Jiang, Liangliang; Chang, Cun; Tuerhanjiang, Latipa

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.058

Cited by 186 publications

(134 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…The speed of their occurrence or termination is closely related to the appearance or termination of insolation, as well as the type of active surface and its size. As a result, a real possibility arises of regulating the heat-wind conditions of residential buildings by combining the conditions of insolation of underlying surfaces and the energy activity of the latter [11,12] Based on the analysis, models for the formation of aeration of urban space were constructed (Fig. 3).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental analysis of cities with hot climate and rugged terrain

Giyasov

Giyasova

2019

E3S Web Conf.

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Having hot windless climate and rugged terrain resulting from the lack of sufficient aeration, southern cities are in extreme environmental conditions. Urban construction on a rugged terrain affects the established local microclimate by changing the structure of the environment and hydrogeological conditions. In addition, the development of urban space and the construction of modern high-rise buildings significantly affect the aerodynamics of the environment. In hot climate, the urban environment has stable zones suffering from lack of natural air circulation and high concentration of harmful emissions. The article analyzes the factors that aggravate the environmental situation of cities with a rugged terrain and high temperatures. Insufficient aeration and high intensity of solar radiation in the urban environment are identified as the main factors of unfavorable environment in cities with rugged terrain. Based on the analysis of the climatic parameters of the cities of Sochi, Makhachkala and field observations in the city of Dushanbe, we identified conditions under which local air circulation is formed, contributing to the improvement in the environmental situation. The aeration formation models for urban space with different landscaping options are built. The analysis will enable to make the accurate assessment of the factors affecting the formation of aeration of thermal origin and their role in improving the environment of cities with hot, windless climate.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental analysis of cities with hot climate and rugged terrain

Giyasov

Giyasova

2019

E3S Web Conf.

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“…where w(u i , v i ) is the spatial weight matrix, which is unique for each grid [64]. In this study, the biogeographic and socioeconomic variables were resampled to 5 × 5 km grids by using the bilinear interpolation method [45,74,75] to match the ERI data and used the spatial modelling tool in ArcGIS 10.2 software to calculate the GWR parameters.…”

Section: Geographically Weighted Regression (Gwr) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Characterized by a fragile ecological environment, the ADD has undergone soil salinization [41] and experienced sandstorms and climate change [42]. Due to both natural factors and human activities, such as extensive expansion of farmland and construction land [43], grassland and forestland in this area have been extensively degraded [44,45], and the structure and function of the landscape are being damaged. These phenomena have led to high landscape ecological risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta

Bao

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Examining the drivers of landscape ecological risk can provide scientific information for planning and landscape optimization. The landscapes of the Amu Darya Delta (ADD) have recently undergone great changes, leading to increases in landscape ecological risks. However, the relationships between landscape ecological risk and its driving factors are poorly understood. In this study, the ADD was selected to construct landscape ecological risk index (ERI) values for 2000 and 2015. Based on a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the relationship between each of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), digital elevation model (DEM), crop yield, population density (POP), and road density and the spatiotemporal variation in ERI were explored. The results showed that the ERI decreased from the periphery of the ADD to the centre and that high-risk areas were distributed in the ADD’s downstream region, with the total area of high-risk areas increasing by 86.55% from 2000 to 2015. The ERI was spatially correlated with Moran’s I in 2000 and 2015, with correlation of 0.67 and 0.72, respectively. The GWR model indicated that in most ADD areas, the NDVI had a negative impact on the ERI, whereas LST and DEM had positive impacts on the ERI. Crop yield, road density and POP were positively correlated with the ERI in the central region of the ADD, at road nodes and in densely populated urban areas, respectively. Based on the findings of this study, we suggest that the ecological constraints of the aforementioned factors should be considered in the process of delta development and protection.

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“…The grasslands of Central Asia, considered the most extensive grassland region in the world, are no exception as they are nowadays transformed by climate and land-use changes (Suleimenov 2014; Zhang et al 2018a). These changes diminish these grasslands' ecological and socio-economical roles and this ultimately leads to biodiversity loss (Chen et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential biodiversity change in Central Asian grasslands: scenarios for the impact of climate and land-use change

et al. 2020

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Central Asian grasslands are extensively used for pastoral livestock grazing. This traditional land use is nowadays characterized by intensifying grasslands into more productive pastures. This change affects biodiversity and diminishes grasslands' ecological role. Biodiversity impacts are probably also exacerbated by climate change. These changes in biodiversity are poorly studied in Central Asia. Here, we estimated potential biodiversity changes in the Central Asian grasslands using the latest shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways (i.e., SSP-RCP scenario framework). We selected scenarios with contrasting socioeconomic and climate conditions (i.e., SSP1-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP8.5, SSP4-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5) and further detailed the land-use scenarios for the region using stakeholders' input. We indicated future biodiversity by the mean species abundance indicator. The contrasting scenario combinations showed that grasslands' biodiversity will decline under each scenario. The strongest impact on biodiversity is expected in SSP5-RCP8.5, where half of the grasslands are likely to lose most of their local originally occurring species by 2100. The lowest impact is expected in SSP4-RCP4.5. Our study stresses the potential vulnerability of this region to increasing land-use intensity and climate change. These impact projections can help regional decision makers to develop and implement better biodiversity-conservation and sustainable management policies for these grasslands.

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Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on arid and semiarid grasslands in Central Asia during 1982–2015

Cited by 186 publications

References 81 publications

Environmental analysis of cities with hot climate and rugged terrain

Environmental analysis of cities with hot climate and rugged terrain

Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta

Potential biodiversity change in Central Asian grasslands: scenarios for the impact of climate and land-use change

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