Disentangling the effect of future land use strategies and climate change on streamflow in a Mediterranean catchment dominated by tree plantations

Galleguillos, Mauricio; Gimeno, F.; Puelma, Cristóbal; Zambrano‐Bigiarini, Mauricio; Lara, Antonio; Rojas, Maisa

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126047

Cited by 30 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…For example, Barría et al (2021) recently determined that the relative impact of the climate factor is more than 10 times larger than the impact of the observed LLC changes in the Aculeo Lake balance (Central Chile; 33 • S). Although these results may discourage conservation, Galleguillos et al (2021) reported that conservative scenarios focused on native forest protection and restoration could partially mitigate the effect of climate change in Mediterranean basins. Future efforts should focus on understanding the hydrological role of different vegetation cover (e.g., Milkovic et al, 2019), under changing climatic conditions in northwestern Patagonia.…”

Section: Synergistic Hydrological Effects Between Climate and Lccmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Anthropogenic alterations of the natural streamflow regime by way of LCCs make isolating the impacts of climate change on hydrology a daunting task (Yang et al, 2017;Chanapathi and Thatikonda, 2020). In Chile the hydrological impacts of LCCs have been evaluated mainly in south-central Chile (< 41 • S; Stehr et al, 2010;Aguayo et al, 2016;Martínez-Retureta et al, 2020;Barría et al, 2021;Galleguillos et al, 2021) and not in tributary basins to the coastal system of northwestern Patagonia. Nevertheless, using rivers like Puelo River as sentinels, several studies have reported anomalous events in fjords of northwestern Patagonia (e.g., surface hypoxia events, harmful algal blooms), mainly during severe droughts (Valle-Levinson et al, 2007;León-Muñoz et al, 2013Iriarte et al, 2017;Díaz et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.

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Section: Synergistic Hydrological Effects Between Climate and Lccmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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“…The SWAT model was also used by Galleguillos et al (2021) to assess whether adaptive plantation strategies could mitigate the impacts of climate change and increase streamflow in a catchment in central Chile. They analysed five different scenarios of land use and land cover changes based on current climate conditions and various climate projections showing variations in mean annual streamflow up to − 46%.…”

Section: Effects Of Land-use and Land-cover Changes On Runoff Generation And Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They analysed five different scenarios of land use and land cover changes based on current climate conditions and various climate projections showing variations in mean annual streamflow up to − 46%. They concluded that afforestation with exotic pines has the potential to intensify the reduction in streamflow, whereas conservative scenarios focused on native forests protection and restoration could partially mitigate the effect of climate change (Galleguillos et al, 2021). Zhao et al (2021) investigated the effects of long-term land cover change on hydrological processes in an experimental catchment in Idaho (USA) from 1991 to 2013 through a modelling approach.…”

Section: Effects Of Land-use and Land-cover Changes On Runoff Generation And Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Virtual Special Issue “Advances in forest hydrology in the light of land use change and disturbances”

Penna

Hopp

Asano

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrology

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“…Daily streamflow (Q) data are crucial for a wide range of scientific and operational water resources applications, such as climate change impact assessment (e.g. Kling et al, 2012;Rojas et al, 2013;Mendoza et al, 2016;Galleguillos et al, 2021), Q and flood forecasting (e.g. Clark and Hay, 2004;Addor et al, 2011;Coughlan de Perez et al, 2016;Sharma et al, 2018), and catchment classification (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the selection of precipitation products for the regionalisation of hydrological model parameters

Baez-Villanueva

Zambrano‐Bigiarini

Mendoza

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Over the past decades, novel parameter regionalisation techniques have been developed to predict streamflow in data-scarce regions. In this paper, we examined how the choice of gridded daily precipitation (P) products affects the relative performance of three well-known parameter regionalisation techniques (spatial proximity, feature similarity, and parameter regression) over 100 near-natural catchments with diverse hydrological regimes across Chile. We set up and calibrated a conceptual semi-distributed HBV-like hydrological model (TUWmodel) for each catchment, using four P products (CR2MET, RF-MEP, ERA5, and MSWEPv2.8). We assessed the ability of these regionalisation techniques to transfer the parameters of a rainfall-runoff model, implementing a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure for each P product. Despite differences in the spatio-temporal distribution of P, all products provided good performance during calibration (median Kling–Gupta efficiencies (KGE′s) > 0.77), two independent verification periods (median KGE′s >0.70 and 0.61, for near-normal and dry conditions, respectively), and regionalisation (median KGE′s for the best method ranging from 0.56 to 0.63). We show how model calibration is able to compensate, to some extent, differences between P forcings by adjusting model parameters and thus the water balance components. Overall, feature similarity provided the best results, followed by spatial proximity, while parameter regression resulted in the worst performance, reinforcing the importance of transferring complete model parameter sets to ungauged catchments. Our results suggest that (i) merging P products and ground-based measurements does not necessarily translate into an improved hydrologic model performance; (ii) the spatial resolution of P products does not substantially affect the regionalisation performance; (iii) a P product that provides the best individual model performance during calibration and verification does not necessarily yield the best performance in terms of parameter regionalisation; and (iv) the model parameters and the performance of regionalisation methods are affected by the hydrological regime, with the best results for spatial proximity and feature similarity obtained for rain-dominated catchments with a minor snowmelt component.

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Disentangling the effect of future land use strategies and climate change on streamflow in a Mediterranean catchment dominated by tree plantations

Cited by 30 publications

References 83 publications

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

Virtual Special Issue “Advances in forest hydrology in the light of land use change and disturbances”

On the selection of precipitation products for the regionalisation of hydrological model parameters

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