Differential effects of temperature change and human impact on European Late Quaternary mammalian extinctions

Varela, Sara; Lima‐Ribeiro, Matheus S.; Diniz‐Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Storch, David

doi:10.1111/gcb.12763

Cited by 20 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…To our knowledge, this is the first study successfully applying SDMs to determine whether extinct and extant megafauna were characterized by different climatic tolerances. Our results suggest that climatic niche evolution, rather than niche width, was key to the megafauna survival from the Last Interglacial to the early Holocene (Varela, Lima‐Ribeiro, Diniz‐Filho & Storch, ). While none of our models explicitly predicts extinction for any of the species we considered, we found strong patterns of co‐occurrence, and clear evidence of climatic specialization to the so‐called mammoth steppe for both M. primigenius and C. antiquitatis .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Does the jack of all trades fare best? Survival and niche width in Late Pleistocene megafauna

Febbraro

Carotenuto

Castiglione

et al. 2017

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim: We sought to assess different megafaunal species responses to the intense climatic changes that characterized the end of the Quaternary. Location: Eurasia. Methods: We used species distribution modelling, niche overlap tests and co-occurrence analysis to model climatic niche evolution and change in six different megafauna species, including three extinct (woolly mammoth, woolly rhino and steppe bison) and three extant (red deer, wolf and reindeer) species. Results: Co-occurrence analysis indicates mammoth, rhino, reindeer and steppe bison to be significantly associated to each other in the fossil record in cold, arid environments. In contrast, red deer and wolf show no evidence for strong habitat requirements, although they both tended to be associated with more humid conditions than the other megafauna. Woolly mammoth and the woolly rhino were the best adapted to the cold, arid conditions dominating the Eurasian landscapes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Extant species did not exhibit larger climatic niches than extinct species, but changed more from one period to the next than those of extinct species. Main conclusions: Although they did not have wider climatic niches, and were the least adapted to cold climates, red deer and the wolf were able to withstand the harsh climatic conditions of the LGM. Conversely, the now extinct mammoth and woolly rhino did not survive the demise of the LGM environment. Although "cold-adapted", reindeer survived the LGM by occupying a northerly distribution similar to today. Independent evidence indicates the steppe bison lineage might have survived in North America. Our data are consistent with a strong climatic control on the fate of late Quaternary megafauna species in Eurasia. We were unable to exclude a sizeable effect of human intervention by overhunting

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Does the jack of all trades fare best? Survival and niche width in Late Pleistocene megafauna

Febbraro

Carotenuto

Castiglione

et al. 2017

Journal of Biogeography

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“…If extinctions occurred by chance, we would expect more threatened species in areas with higher species richness which is, in turn, largely determined by latitudinal gradients in climatic conditions affecting the availability of energy and water (Hawkins et al 2003, Terribile et al 2009). However, extinctions do not occur by chance but are instead largely shaped by human activities, such as direct persecution or habitat modifications (Russell et al 2013); and extreme climatic events, such as past ice ages or current climate change (Thuiller et al 2011, Varela et al 2015. As a result, the relationship between environmental factors, overall species richness, and the number of threatened species is not straightforward and shows spatial heterogeneity (Orme et al 2005, Ceballos and Ehrlich 2006, Brum et al 2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The legacy of past human land use in current patterns of mammal distribution

2019

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Multiple environmental factors are known to shape species distributions at the global scale, including climate and topography, but understanding current extents of occurrence and biodiversity patterns requires considering anthropogenic factors as well. Numerous studies have explored the relationship between contemporary human activities and different biodiversity metrics, but the influence of past activities, such as land‐use, remains poorly understood despite being one of the oldest human impacts. Here we evaluate the role of past land‐use modifications in the current distribution and conservation status of mammals worldwide using spatial data characterizing human land use from ca BC 6000 to ca AD 2000. First, we applied a clustering method that revealed three generalized past human land‐use trajectories that represent low‐, recently‐ and steadily‐used areas widely represented across the globe. Second, we fitted boosted regression trees to predict total and threatened mammalian richness, globally and within trajectory‐clusters, testing the role of environmental factors and multiple human land‐use metrics reflecting: total used area at different time spans, rates of land‐use change, and the occurrence of remarkable land‐use shifts. Environmental factors were identified as the main correlates of current mammalian richness, but several proposed metrics of past land‐use were also relevant predictors. Overall, these results highlight the likely existence of a land‐use legacy in some regions of the world that has influenced the distribution of extant mammals, particularly of those currently classified as threatened. Even if we cannot change that legacy, our results show that we need to account for past human impacts to understand present biodiversity patterns and, arguably, to guide future actions.

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“…resources about biodiversity (e.g., GBIF 2 , Paleobiology Database 3 , speciesLink 4 ), and exciting new computational tools (e.g., the new R packages; rgbif: Chamberlain et al, 2013;rAvis: Varela et al, 2014a;paleobioDB: Varela et al, 2014b), have facilitated fundamental analyses by macroecologists and biogeographers on broad scales. The multi-temporal climate data have been used to explore effects of past (Varela et al, 2015a) and future (Thomas et al, 2004) climate change; to understand past extinction events ; and to test hypotheses concerning population dynamics (Barrientos et al, 2014), evolutionary processes (Araújo et al, 2013;Saupe et al, 2014), and ecological dynamics (Martínez-Meyer et al, 2004;. Data layers summarizing climatic information are created by interpolating continuous surfaces from real (generally point-based) observations, or by modeling conditions based on complex simulations describing key processes of atmospheric and ocean circulation, the so-called general circulation models (GCMs; Braconnot et al, 2007).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

EcoClimate: a database of climate data from multiple models for past, present, and future for macroecologists and biogeographers

Varela²,

et al. 2015

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Abstract.-Studies in biogeography and macroecology have been increasing massively since climate and biodiversity databases became easily accessible. Climate simulations for past, present, and future have enabled macroecologists and biogeographers to combine data on species' occurrences with detailed information on climatic conditions through time to predict biological responses across large spatial and temporal scales. Here we present and describe ecoClimate, a free and open data repository developed to serve useful climate data to macroecologists and biogeographers. ecoClimate arose from the need for climate layers with which to build ecological niche models and test macroecological and biogeographic hypotheses in the past, present, and future. ecoClimate offers a suite of processed, multi-temporal climate data sets from the most recent multi-model ensembles developed by the Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5) and Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Projects (PMIP3) across past, present, and future time frames, at global extents and 0.5° spatial resolution, in convenient formats for analysis and manipulation. A priority of ecoClimate is consistency across these diverse data, but retaining information on uncertainties among model predictions. The ecoClimate research group intends to maintain the web repository updated continuously as new model outputs become available, as well as software that makes our workflows broadly accessible.

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Differential effects of temperature change and human impact on European Late Quaternary mammalian extinctions

Cited by 20 publications

References 43 publications

Does the jack of all trades fare best? Survival and niche width in Late Pleistocene megafauna

Does the jack of all trades fare best? Survival and niche width in Late Pleistocene megafauna

The legacy of past human land use in current patterns of mammal distribution

EcoClimate: a database of climate data from multiple models for past, present, and future for macroecologists and biogeographers

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