Development of an Integrated Approach for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydro-Meteorological Characteristics of the Mahaweli River Basin, Sri Lanka

Selvarajah, Hemakanth; Koike, Takao; Rasmy, Mohamed; Tamakawa, Katsunori; Yamamoto, Akio; Kitsuregawa, M.; Zhou, Li

doi:10.3390/w13091218

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Variation in the simulated results was identified for the far-future projection, in which in comparison to the simulated baseline discharges, CanESM2 predicted no change, CNRM-CM5 estimated decrease, while MPI-ESM-MR projected increase in the average discharge of the Cimanuk watershed. These results are in line with other published research on the impacts of climate change on watershed hydro meteorological characteristic [54].…”

Section: Discharge Simulation Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia

Heryani¹,

Kartiwa²,

Sosiawan³

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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Climate change has been affecting agricultural water resources dynamics spatially and temporally. This article presents analysis results of climate change impact on agricultural water availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia. STREAM was utilized to model agricultural water availability through FAO MOSAICC web application. Climate spatial data time-series were generated using 3 Global Climate Model (GCM), i.e.,: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR following two climate change scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5. Model inputs were split into three periods of 1981–2010 (historical), 2010–2039 (near-future), and 2040–2069 (far-future). Historical data model validation showed the efficiency coefficient of the observed and simulated discharge data ratio was 0.68. The results showed a decreasing volumetric water availability from all generated climate data and scenarios, identified by comparing the discharge normal distribution of the historical and future data periods. Whereas, trend analysis of RCP4.5 scenario showed increasing maximum discharge of Cimanuk river using CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-MR GCM’s data, with a Mann–Kendall coefficient of 3.23 and 3.57. These results indicate a different agricultural water balance status within the watershed area, particularly a “very critical” water balance in Indramayu and Majalengka, “critical” in Garut, and “close to critical” in Sumedang Regency.

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Section: Discharge Simulation Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia

Heryani¹,

Kartiwa²,

Sosiawan³

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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“…Previously, many studies have been carried out in the subbasins of the MRB and only a very few have focused on the entire MRB. Some of the disciplines which investigated the entire MRB were hydrologic modeling [33], climate change impacts on paddy cultivation in dry zones in the MRB [34], assessing the streamflow variability and rainfall trend of climatic zones [35], El-Nino and La-Nina impact on streamflow [31], drought occurrence and atmospheric circulation [36], and projection of future climate [37]. Other research studies which focused on the subbasins of the MRB investigate the prediction of streamflow in ungauged catchments [38] and flood modeling [39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products over the Mahaweli River Basin in Sri Lanka

Perera

Fernando

Gunathilake

et al. 2022

Advances in Meteorology

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The availability of accurate spatiotemporal rainfall data is of utmost importance for reliable predictions from hydroclimatological studies. Challenges and limitations faced due to the absence of dense rain gauge (RG) networks are seen especially in the developing countries. Therefore, alternative rainfall measurements such as satellite rainfall products (SRPs) are used when RG networks are scarce or completely do not exist. Noteworthy, rainfall data retrieved from satellites also possess several uncertainties. Hence, these SRPs should essentially be validated beforehand. The Mahaweli River Basin (MRB), the largest river basin in Sri Lanka, is the heart of the country’s water resources contributing to a significant share of the hydropower production and agricultural sector. Given the importance of the MRB, this study explored the suitability of SRPs as an alternative for RG data for the basin. Daily rainfall data of six types of SRPs were extracted at 14 locations within the MRB. Thereafter, statistical analysis was carried out using continuous and categorical evaluation indices to evaluate the accuracy of SRPs. Nonparametric tests, including the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests, were used to detect the possibility of trends and the magnitude, respectively. Integrated MultisatellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) outperformed among all SRPs, while Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) products showed dire performances. However, IMERG also demonstrated underestimations when compared to RG data. Trend analysis results showcased that the IMERG product agreed more with RG data on monthly and annual time scales while Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis–3B42 (TRMM-3B42) agreed more on the seasonal scale. Overall, IMERG turned out to be the best alternative among the SRPs analyzed for MRB. However, it was clear that these products possess significant errors which cannot be ignored when using them in hydrological applications. The results of the study will be valuable for many parties including river basin authorities, agriculturists, meteorologists, hydrologists, and many other stakeholders.

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“…According to the study, soil evaporation decreased in all the tested locations under future climate. In APSIM, evaporation is calculated in two stages based on the potential evaporation determined using the Priestley-Taylor method [40]. Thus, surface energy flux, atmospheric pressure, and surface air temperature determine the values [41].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Soil Dynamics: A Crop Modelling Approach

Wimalasiri,

Sirishantha,

Karunadhipathi

et al. 2023

Soil Systems

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The impact of global climate change is a challenge to the sustainability of many ecosystems, including soil systems. However, the performance of soil properties under future climate was rarely assessed. Therefore, this study was carried out to evaluate selected soil processes under climate change using an agri-environmental modeling approach to Sri Lanka. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to simulate soil and plant-related processes using recent past (1990–2019) and future (2041–2070) climates. Future climate data were obtained for a regional climate model (RCM) under representative concentrations pathway 4.5 scenarios. Rainfalls are going to be decreased in all the tested locations under future climate scenarios while the maximum temperature showcased rises. According to simulated results, the average yield reduction under climate change was 7.4%. The simulated nitrogen content in the storage organs of paddy declined in the locations (by 6.4–25.5%) as a reason for climate change. In general, extractable soil water relative to the permanent wilting point (total available water), infiltration, and biomass carbon lost to the atmosphere decreased while soil temperature increased in the future climate. This modeling approach provides a primary-level prediction of soil dynamics under climate change, which needs to be tested using fieldwork.

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Development of an Integrated Approach for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydro-Meteorological Characteristics of the Mahaweli River Basin, Sri Lanka

Cited by 11 publications

References 30 publications

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia

Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products over the Mahaweli River Basin in Sri Lanka

Climate Change and Soil Dynamics: A Crop Modelling Approach

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